ADAM MORRISON CAN'T BE A CHAMPION: The only time the NCAA scoring champ also won the NCAA tournament was waaaaay back in 1952. Clyde Lovellette led the nation in scoring....and went on to win the title with Kansas. In fact, the only other player to lead the nation in scoring and get to the Final Four was Oscar Robertson, who did it twice in 1959 and 1960.
JJ REDICK CAN'T WIN IT EITHER: Redick will most likely win the Wooden Award for the best player in the nation. However, since 1996, the only player to win the Wooden Award and the National Championship was Shane Battier....a former Dookie...who did it in 2001.
DON'T BET ON THE #1 TEAM: With UConn and Villanova already losing....who will be the #1 team in the land when the tournament starts?? Well, none of them would like to be. Of the last 23 teams that entered the tournament as the #1 team....only THREE have gone on to win the thing. Those three are Duke [2001], UCLA [1995] and Duke [1992]. In fact, the #1 team isn't a solid pick at all. Take a look...
2005-Illinois, lost in National Championship game
2004-Stanford, lost in 2nd round
2003-Kentucky, lost in Elite 8
2002-Duke, lost in Elite 8
2001-Duke, won title
2000-Duke, lost in Sweet 16
1999-Duke, lost in National Championship game
1998-North Carolina, lost in Final Four
1997-Kansas, lost in Sweet 16
1996-UMass, lost in Final Four
1995-UCLA, won title
1994-North Carolina, lost in 2nd round
1993-Indiana, lost in Elite 8
1992-Duke, won title
1991-UNLV, lost in Final Four
1990-Oklahoma, lost in 2nd round
1989-Arizona, lost in Sweet 16
1988-Temple, lost in Elite 8
Okay, so of the last 18 years....the #1 ranked team entering the tournament has won the title THREE times...played in the title game just FIVE times....and gotten to the Final Four EIGHT times. Amazing huh??? Amazing since SIX of the teams never even made it past the halfway mark in the tournament [winning in the Sweet 16].
And, remember, of those three #1 teams to win it......TWO of them needed a memorable buzzer beater to advance. Remember Tyus Edney's running layup as time expired for UCLA in 1995?? And I think you remember that Laettner shot in 1992. So betting on the top dawg isn't something you may want to bank on.
MEMPHIS WON'T WIN THE TITLE: The last 15 National Champions have come from those "BCS" conferences. Memphis isn't in one of those conferences. The ACC has won six [Duke-3, UNC-2, Maryland], the Big East has won three [UConn-2, Syracuse], the SEC has won three [Kentucky-2, Arkansas], the Pac-10 has won two [UCLA, Arizona] and the Big Ten won one [Michigan State]. The last non-"BCS" conference team to win the title was UNLV back in 1990.
MEMPHIS MAY NOT GET TO FINAL FOUR ANYWAYS: In fact, of the last NINE Final Fours....which is 36 teams....only THREE teams from non-"BCS" conferences even got to the Final Four. Louisville last year [who is now in a BCS league], Marquette in 2003 [who also is now in a BCS league] and Utah back in 1998. Good news for Memphis is that two of those three Final Four crashers came from Conference USA.
AND THEY MAY NOT EVEN GET TO THE SWEET 16: How's this for a stat?? In EVERY even numbered year since and including 1990[and 2006 is one] at least one #1 seed has beenbeaten in the 2nd round. And just only in EVEN numbered years. It didn't happen in an odd numbered year during that stretch. Amazing.
REALLY, IS THERE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN #1 AND #2 SEEDS?? I've always told people that the one difference between being #1 and #2 is the number 16. For one, the 16th seed has never beaten a #1 seed....where as the #2 seed has been upset a couple of times [4 to be exact]. Of course, being a #2 seed...you aren't supposed to let that happen anyways. But the really, really, really key difference between the 1 and 2 seeds is who you play in the Sweet 16. The top seed will take on a #4 or #5 seed...who is dangerous but also flawed. The #2 seed will face off against a #3 seed....who is more similar to power to them. That's the difference. ESPN.com's bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Memphis and Ohio State in the same bracket. Now, if both get to the Sweet 16.....he has UCLA or Kansas as possible foes for Memphis, while Ohio State may get Pittsburgh.
DON'T BET ON THE FAVORITES: Never has all four #1 seeds made it to the Final Four. Never. In fact, only THREE times has three of the #1 seeds made it to the Final Four. It happened in 1999, 1997 and 1993. That 1993 FF featured top seeds UNC, Kentucky and Michigan....with #2 seeded Kansas joining them.....making it the most powerful Final Four ever. But half of the six Final Fours played this decade saw only ONE top seed get to the Final Four....and of the last THREE National Champions, only North Carolina last year won the tournament as a top seed.
WELL, DON'T BET ON ALL THE FAVORITES: Since 1985...only THREE times has all top four seeds from each region won their first round game.
THOSE #12 SEEDS ARE UNDERVALUED: In the last 21 NCAA tournaments, a #12 seed has won a game in 19 of them. Now, in today's bracketology, that means that one of the final at-large teams actually win a game. So, keep an eye on these conference tournaments to figure out who your horse may be.
GUARD PLAY IS IMPORTANT....WELL IN THE BEGINNING: The biggest cliche that you will hear during the 48 games in the first weekend of the dance is how important guard-play is to advancing. Well, duh. In the first couple of rounds....when teams are trying to beat teams like them...the guards who protect the ball and are hot shooting usually advance teams. However, once you get past that weekend...it is the post guys that matter. When you get to the Sweet 16, pretty much everyone has great guard play [I mean, didn't they all advance...heh, heh?]. Look at the titles. North Carolina rode Sean May over the last four games of the tournament last year. UConn used Emeka Okafor's offensive and defensive dominance in 2004. In 2003....it was Carmelo Anthony pretty much taking over that tournament. Sure, the guard play is still very important and a big key into winning....but the size and skill inside seperates teams who both possess great guards.
DON'T PUT "BRUINS" TOGETHER: Look, I am all for the cutsey stuff. I figured that Duke and Gonzaga would be on the same half of the bracket...or Illinois and North Carolina [the two 2005 finalists] would be in the same region. But don't put two teams who have the same nickname on the same court!! In San Diego, the UCLA Bruins will play the Belmont Bruins. C'mon guys!!! Why not put NC State and Nevada together to get both Wolfpacks in a game?? Or the Eagles of Winthrop and Marquette?? We could get a Sweet 16 with the UConn and Washington Huskies.
HOW ABOUT THAT WASHINGTON BRACKET?? Many people feel this is the toughest region. Well, let's see, you have UConn in there...one of the only two teams that have #1 all year long [Duke, the other]. You have three of last year's Final Four in there [North Carolina, Illinois and Michigan State]. But...it may actually be the worst bracket. In one of the weirdest moves....you have only THREE TEAMS that won their conference tournaments!!! And they are Albany, Murray State and Winthrop. In fact, only UAB and Utah State even reached the conference championship game!!!! And the #1 seed, #2 seed, #4 seed and #5 seed won a combined ZERO games in their conference tournys. Adding the #3 seed [UNC] gets you a grand total of 1 win. Amazing.
OAKLAND UPSET BRACKET: Remember that last year, the "west" bracket [last year it was Albuquerque] had some of the wildest games and upsets in all the dance. #2 Wake Forest, #3 Gonzaga and #5 Georgia Tech lost in the 2nd round. #1 Washington lost in the Sweet 16. West Virginia, the #7 seed, lasted until the Elite 8. Could be the same thing this year. While I am not saying the Memphis will lose to Oral Roberts, but they will have to try to stop Caleb Green....one of the best scorers in the nation. Aside from this game, and the UCLA-Belmont game, the rest of the games are game where upsets very well may occur. But why? Well, my reasoning is that the "west" doesn't have a dominant team. Oh, well, Stanford was a few years back and didn't make it far. But I do tend to think that, normally, this bracket gets the weakest #1 seed and is fed with a bunch of streaky filler. Look at this year. Gonzaga has underperformed in the past few years. Kansas was upset in the 1st round last year. Pitt, Indiana and Marquette are hard working teams that don't necessarily wow you. And those teams they get?? Bucknell was the one that knocked Kansas off last year. Kent State has won 20 games each of the last 8 years. Bradley may be the hottest mid-major team.
THIS WILL BE A WILD TOURNAMENT: Of the #1 and #2 seeds.....only Duke, Memphis and UCLA won their conference tournaments [and only Ohio State and Texas even made their conference finals]. Of those top eight teams in the tournament.....only UCLA hasn't lost in the past 10 days. UConn, Villanova, Texas, Tennessee and Ohio State all lost in their tournaments.....Duke lost to Florida State and North Carolina and Memphis lost to UAB. We have strong mid-major schools like Gonzaga, Nevada, George Washington and Wichita State. We have California, Indiana and Syracuse as relatively high seeds despite their bubble status just over a week ago.
WHAT RPI?? Missouri State finished with an RPI rating of 20. That crushes the record for best RPI to be kept from the NCAA tournament [the ol' record was 33].
SAVE THE NATIVE AMERICANS: Despite the big stink that the NCAA made over those Native American nicknames...it will be business as usual during the tournament. The Illini and Braves [Bradley, that is] will be playing and the home of the Utah Utes will be hosting a pod. Ah, diversity.
ADAM MORRISON CAN'T BE A CHAMPION: The only time the NCAA scoring champ also won the NCAA tournament was waaaaay back in 1952. Clyde Lovellette led the nation in scoring....and went on to win the title with Kansas. In fact, the only other player to lead the nation in scoring and get to the Final Four was Oscar Robertson, who did it twice in 1959 and 1960.
TALENT WINS THESE THINGS: In 7 of the last 10 years, the champion has had at least THREE NBA first round draft picks....and only the 1999 UConn Huskies had less than two.
KENTUCKY'S TAMED CATS: This is the first time in 16 years that Kentucky comes into the dance with a seeding worse than 5.
THE LAST TIME.....PT 1: The last time North Carolina was defending their national championship....Arkansas went on to beat Duke in the Final. Is this the Hogs year?
THE LAST TIME.....PT 2: The last time North Carolina was defending their national championship....their final loss was to Boston College [2nd round of the 1994 tourny]. Since UNC lost to BC in the ACC semifinals...does that mean that UNC will rise to the title again???
THE LAST TIME....PT 3: The last time that an ACC or a Big East team DIDN'T win the National Championship was in 2000 when Michigan State did it. This year, three of the four #1 seeds are from the ACC or Big East.
NC STATE'S BALANCED ATTACK: You could see this as a good thing [balanced scoring] or a bad thing [no true offensive star]....but NC State has only had ELEVEN times where a player scored at least 20 points. Now, down the road in Durham, JJ Redick has had 13 games that he scored at least 30 points.
THE BEST PLAYER AIN'T ALWAYS ON THE BEST TEAM: The last time an NCAA champion was the #1 pick in the NBA draft was Larry Johnson in 1991. But, LJ didn't win the '91 title [his UNLV squad won it the year before]. The last player to win the title in March and become the #1 pick in June was Danny Manning in 1988 [Pervis Ellison won the 1986 NCAA title and was the 1989 top NBA pick]. By the way, Rudy Gay is the "experts" pick for the #1 overall pick this year.
MISSING CARDINAL: Louisville is the only Final Four team from last year to not be in the tournament this year. They are also the only Elite 8 team from last year to not make this year's tournament.
SWEET 16'S CRASHED AND BURNED: Louisville, of course, was a 2005 Sweet 16 team that isn't around this year. Well three other Sweet 16 schools failed to make this tournament. They are Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Utah.
SCREW IT....HERE THEY ARE: Here is the list of teams that were in the tourny last year, but aren't in it this year: St. Mary's, FDU, Southwestern Louisiana, Georgia Tech, Louisville, La Lafayette, Texas Tech, Creighton, Chattanooga, Oakland, Minnesota, Iowa State, New Mexico, Ohio, Charlotte, Central Florida, Alabama A&M, Delaware State, Stanford, Mississippi State, Old Dominion, Vermont, Utah, UTEP, Niagra, Cincinnati and Eastern Kentucky. That's 27 schools that weren't in the dance last year...that are in it this year.
AND WE'RE STILL GOOD: Duke is the only team to be a #1 seed this year that was a #1 seed last year. North Carolina is a #3 seed; Illinois is a #4 seed; Washington is a #5 seed.
AND WE'RE FINALLY GOOD: Of the current #1 seeds....UConn was a #2 seed last year, Villanova was a #5 seed and Memphis....well, they didn't even make the dance last year.
YOU CAN'T PLAY HERE!: There were only one major no-no in the seedings. Georgetown couldn't have been placed in the Washington DC bracket [it's considered a home site]. Of course, Villanova can still play in Philadelphia for some reason.
BELOW ARE JUST SOME FUN MUSINGS....WILL BILL RAFERTY DO A SYRACUSE GAME?: So off the tip, he can't say his patented "Syracuse goes to man-da-man!"
HOW MANY TIMES WILL DICK ENBERG SCREW UP SOMEBODY'S NAME?: Since CBS bumped him down the NFL totem poll, it will be interesting to see how he does these NCAA tournament games. And he has a knack for "the foul is called on ____________".....then a minute later..."NO! The foul was on______________"
WHAT'S THE LINE ON JIM NANTZ AND BILLY PACKER DOING THE DUKE GAMES??: Um, probably an even bet.
MORE TO COME....
1 comment:
Sportz-
I never realized you worked at NASA. Man, that's a lot of data!!
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