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Below is my field of 65. I figure that 16 bids will go to those 1-bid conferences that have no possible at-large hopefuls. So, another 49 will come from the major conferences plus those conferences who seem to have at large quality teams. I feel that we have 32 of the 49 locked in. So, there are only 17 "bubble" spots remaining. In GREEN are my locks [32]....in BLUE are my "lookin' good" teams...and in RED are my true bubble teams. The teams in PURPLE have clinched automatic bids. My tournament field....
ACC: Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, NC State, Florida State
BIG EAST: Villanova, UConn, Pitt, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
BIG TEN: Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan
BIG XII: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas A&M
PAC-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California
SOUTHEASTERN: Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky
ATLANTIC 10: George Washington
ATLANTIC SUN: Belmont
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
COLONIAL: UNC-Wilmington, George Mason
CONFERENCE USA: Memphis, UAB
IVY LEAGUE: Penn
MAAC: Iona
MISSOURI VALLEY: Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Creighton
MOUNTAIN WEST: Air Force
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: Davidson
WEST COAST: Gonzaga
WAC: Nevada
Automatic Bids from the champions of these leagues [11 bids left]....
America East [3/11], Big Sky [3/8], Big West, Horizon [3/7], Mid-Continent [3/7], MAC [3/11], MEAC, Northeast [3/8], Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt [3/7]
BUBBLE STATUS
There are 9 teams that have clinched automatic berths. There are 32 teams that I feel are locks. And there are 11 conferences that will get their one representative in. That's 52 teams. That means there are 13 spots up for grabs. Below are the teams fighting for those spots...and what they have to do to lock them in.
Cincinnati [blue teams are "lookin' good" for the tournament]: The Bearcats are pretty much a good bet to get in. But, a loss to Syracuse in the Big East tournament coupled with some upsets elsewhere could end the Cincy hopes. I just don't see any of that happening. If they beat the Orange...they are a lock.
Kentucky: The Wildcats are also a pretty solid bubble team. Unless they get reamed byOleMiss in the SEC first round....they shouldn't need to panic on Selection Sunday. Beat Ole Miss....and get your ticket.
Seton Hall: Seton Hall finished with a better record than Cincinnati in the Big East....and beat them head-to-head. The Hall have also beaten Pitt, West Virginia and NC State...and have losses against UConn, Villanova and Duke [all of which should be #1 seeds]. If they beat Rutgers....they should clinch.
Indiana: Indiana got that huge win at Michigan which puts them back into the hunt. However, I still think they need to have a good showing against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament to guarantee a berth. If they win that game, they're in.
Northern Iowa: I still think they are looking good. Sure, their 12-8 conference mark doesn't dazzle....and neither does losing to Southern Illinois twice and Creighton twice [both MVC bubblers heading into their tourny]. Their regular season is over...and I think their RPI [which is 26] should get them in. They just better hope nothing strange happens in these conference tournaments.
Florida State: Florida State cannot get tripped up by Wake Forest in the ACC's opening round. If that happens, FSU is on really shaky ground. If the Noles win that game, then look solid against NC State [a game they really could/should win]....then they could seal the deal.
Bradley: Bradley was hot as the season ended...and made a strong run in the MVC tournament - getting to the Finals. They got Patrick O'Bryant back....and the committee will take that into consideration. They have no more games until Selection Sunday....so they are just hoping nothing crazy happens.
Michigan [read teams are "in limbo"]: I should put Michigan in blue....but I'm afraid that they may lose to Minnesota in the Big Ten opener and teams like Air Force/San Diego State and Bucknell could slip up in their tournaments. The more that these strong mid-majors clinch...the closer to blue the Wolverines become.
UAB: All UAB needs to do is get to the Conference USA Finals to guarantee a spot. If they don't get that far, they may white knuckle it next Sunday.
Air Force: Air Force has a nice looking record and better numbers than conference foe San Diego State. I think they should get to the MWC Finals. If so, they are in. If not....they will be on CBS or ESPN hoping for their names to be called.
California: They gotta beat USC. After that...a big game against Washington. A win there and they should be in. A loss?? Well, they better not get blown out....let's just say that.
Texas A&M: They got a first round bye in the Big XII tournament....but they could have to face Colorado in the Ultimate Big XII Elimination Game. Win that game...and stay in the game against Texas...and they could be cool.
Creighton: Creighton, despite finishing up their season, will be bobbing a weaving in and out of my ratings. Let's just say that Creighton better hope that none of the teams below make a strong run this week. If so, they the Jays will be the odd man out of the MVC.
San Diego State [teal teams are on the "outside looking in"]: I may be one of the few people that isn't putting SDSU in the dance yet. Sure, they won the Mountain West regular season title...but their numbers are pretty soft [at least softer than some others on this list] and I think they need to get to the MWC Finals to have a shot at an at-large bid. And if they don't win the tourny...they better pray that Air Force does.
Hofstra: Got to the Colonial title game.....beaten George Mason twice in a week....but is that enough? Eh. They are as bubble as bubble gets. Sometimes I think they are in....other times, I don't. The Pride have an top 25 RPI and are sort of a hot team right now. I think they need at least one of those red teams to trip up hard in their conference tournament.
Missouri State: They did finish 2nd in the MVC...but is it enough? A bad loss in the tourament has left MSU stale. May need some crashing and burning from the red teams to get in.
Colorado: Get by Baylor....and beat Texas A&M. That will be a big game, with the loser most likley reeling out of the picture. A Buffs win would give them a bit of hope.
Maryland: I don't like Maryland's numbers or their late season swoon. To me, they'd have to beat Georgia Tech and then Boston College to have a legit shot. They may have to get to the ACC Championship game just to even have a shot.
Syracuse: Interesting team. On current merit, they are not a tournament team. But, they do have the kind of team that could make a nice run in the Big East tournament. If they knock off Cincinnati...then they could take out UConn...from there, who knows? That's a lot of "ifs" and "coulds".
Utah State: Will have to get to WAC Finals to have a chance.
BYU: Would have to get to the Mountain West Finals to have a hope. In doing that, they would most likely have had to have beaten Air Force. Anything less, would be suicide.
UTEP: Probably needs to get to the C-USA Finals [that means probably beating UAB] to even have a prayer. While they are there....they may as well win the thing since that's the only way they'd be sure.
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