CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK - Friday Edition

                           

ACC TOURNAMENT:  Duke and North Carolina advanced in tougher than expected games.  For the Devils, JJ Redick found his stroke again [I guess the week off helped].  North Carolina got a huge game from Reyshawn Terry again.  On the other end of the rainbow, Wake Forest....who entered this thing as the #12 seed....won again.  They pasted NC State who is spiraling badly.  I mean, this is the 2nd game in a row that State has lost to Wake [it happened last weekend] and they were run out of the gym by UNC and BC earlier.  Boston College, playing their first ACC tournament game, jumped all over Maryland early [27-6 to open the game] and coasted to the win. 

BIG EAST TOURNAMENT:  Hmmm.  Just like last year, a Big East team enters their tournament on the outside of the bubble....then wins three games to get to the Big East Finals and becomes a lock.  And remember, last year's example - West Virginia - went to the Elite 8 and nearly got to the Final Four.   West Virginia lost in that Big East title game....to Syracuse.  Now Syracuse is the team on the run.  This team has won their three games by a total of FOUR POINTS and have become the first Big East team to win a conference tournament game the night after playing an overtime tilt.  The story of the night, however, is a somber one.  Villanova guard Allen Ray was poked in the eye and had to be taken out on a stretcher....with him screaming that he couldn't see.  It seemed to be pretty serious.  Nova went on to lose to Pittsburgh, which sets up a matchup featuring two teams that have had to win 3 games to get here.  That would mean for the first time in Big East history that a team won 4 games to win the Big East Tournament. 

ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT:  This tournament makes absolutely no sense.  St. Joseph's and Xavier will meet for the A-10 title and the automatic bid.  Of the 10 games played...only THREE TIMES has the better seeded team won.  And St. Joe's won two of those games.  They are the better team here [#5 seed] but Xavier [#10 seed] is playing in Cincy which gives them a bit of an advantage. 

BIG TEN TOURNAMENT:  Call it the 60s.  Every winning team scored in the 60s.  Ohio State and Iowa won tough, tough games.  They will each play a team that pulled off an upset.  OSU will take on Indiana, who virtually locked themselves into a tournament bid by beating Wisconsin.  On the other side, Michigan State [who played like dogs in the past few weeks] beat defending Big Ten champion [and fellow 2005 Final Four member] Illinois. 

                                   

BIG XII TOURNAMENT:  In what many people dubbed an "elimination type" game...Texas A&M completely dominated Colorado...pretty much ending the Buffs tourny hopes and solidifying the Aggies.  Does beating your "equal" by 33 work for ya???  They will take on Texas whom they beat just over a week ago.  The Horns ended Bobby Knight's Texas Tech season.  Kansas fought off defending champ Oklahoma State to advance.  But in a ho-hum tournament [the better seed won the first 7 games on this tournament], Nebraska stole some light by beating Oklahoma.  Nebraska, who was in my bubble list for quite a while, is trying to keep alive.  Oklahoma is really skidding.  They have won 4 of 6....but those 4 wins were each one point wins....and there two losses were a blowout against Texas and this game. 

SEC TOURNAMENT:  Kentucky nailed down their bid by coming back to beat Alabama.  The Tide fell apart in the late moments of that game.  The Wildcats go on to face South Carolina....who took it to Tennessee.  The top regular season team, LSU, put away "host" Vanderbilt rather quickly.  They will take of Florida who won a terrific game over Arkansas.  By the way...can someone at the Gaylord Entertainment Center put some color on that floor????  Geez!

PAC-10 TOURNAMENT:  Regular season champ UCLA advances to the title game by dispatching Arizona.  They will take on California...who played an outstanding double-OT thriller against Oregon.  Leon Powe TOOK OVER that game.  The win makes the G-Bears nearly a lock for the NCAAs. 

MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT:  San Diego State held on for dear life in beating UNLV.  Right now, they are looking like an at-large team.  Of course, one more win will give them the auto berth.  They will take on surprising Wyoming....who beat Air Force and Utah to get to this point.  Justin Williams, the Cowboys center, recorded only the 2nd triple double in MWC history against the Utes.  This should be a pretty good matchups. 

CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT:   Not that a brain surgeon was needed to pick this matchup, but Memphis and UAB will meet for the C-USA title.  Memphis is a lock to get in....while UAB sure looks like one now.  The teams split their season series....so this should be fun.  By the way, remember last year that missed FTs with no time remaining cost Memphis in this game. 

WAC TOURNAMENT:  Bubble hopeful Utah State kept their hopes alive by hanging on against Louisiana Tech.  They will take on Nevada who is a lock to get in already. 

Below is my field of 65.  In GREEN are my locks....in BLUE are my "lookin' good" teams...and in RED are my true bubble teams.  The teams in PURPLE have clinched automatic bids.  My tournament field....

ACC:  Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, NC State
BIG EAST:  Villanova, UConn, Pitt, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Cincinnati
BIG TEN: Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan
BIG XII:  Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas A&M
PAC-10:  UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California
SOUTHEASTERN:  Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama
ATLANTIC 10:  St. Joe's/Xavier, George Washington
ATLANTIC SUN:  Belmont
BIG SKY:  Montana
BIG SOUTH:  Winthrop
COLONIAL:  UNC-Wilmington, George Mason
CONFERENCE USA: Memphis, UAB
HORIZON:  Wis-Milwaukee
IVY LEAGUE:  Penn
MAAC:  Iona
MID-CONTINENT:  Oral Roberts
MISSOURI VALLEY:   Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Missouri State
MOUNTAIN WEST:  San Diego State
NORTHEAST:  Monmouth
OHIO VALLEY:  Murray State
PATRIOT:  Bucknell
SOUTHERN:  Davidson
SUN BELT:  South Alabama
WEST COAST:  Gonzaga
WAC:  Nevada

Automatic Bids from the champions of these leagues [6 bids left]....

America East [3/11], Big West [3/11], MAC [3/11], MEAC [3/11], Southland [3/12], SWAC [3/11]

BUBBLE STATUS

With their win over Georgetown to advance to the Big East title game, Syracuse went from "off the board" to "lock" status in three days.   Indiana's win over Wisconsin placed them as a lock as well.   Texas A&M's convincing win over Colorado puts them in as well. 

Alabama [blue teams are "lookin' good" for the tournament]: The Tide, I think, are pretty secure....but not a lock anymore. 

Northern Iowa:  I still think they are looking good.  Sure, their 12-8 conference mark doesn't dazzle....and neither does losing to Southern Illinois twice and Creighton twice [both MVC bubblers heading into their tourny].  Their regular season is over...and I think their RPI [which is 26] should get them in.  They just better hope nothing strange happens in these conference tournaments. 

UAB:  UAB's case got a bit stronger when they toke care of UTEP in the Conference USA semifinals.  From there, a rematch with Memphis is waiting....and all they'd need is a good showing in that game to wrap it up.   

Cincinnati:  The Bearcats should still get in, despite their opening round loss to Syracuse.  What the Bearcats need to worry about is these red and teal teams around them.  If others have big tourny runs, Cincy may slide down the poll.  Still, I think they're good. 

Bradley:  Bradley was hot as the season ended...and made a strong run in the MVC tournament - getting to the Finals.  They got Patrick O'Bryant back....and the committee will take that into consideration.  They have no more games until Selection Sunday....so they are just hoping nothing crazy happens. 

Michigan [red teams are "in limbo"]:  My worst fears were realized.....the Wolverines were beaten by Minnesota.  I still think they are in....but it's dicey.  Michigan lost 7 of 9 to end the year and the selection committee really frowns on that.    

California:  Cal crushed USC....and the fact that there were so many bubble hits the past two days....the Bears are looking a bit better.  And since Washington was upset, Cal gets Oregon next.  A win there puts the Bears into the Pac-10 Finals.

San Diego State: Well, the Aztecs are in the Mountain West finals and Air Force isn't.  They will be playing a much inferior opponent.  So, conventional wisdom would be a win gets them the auto bid....and a loss would be damaging.   

Missouri State:  They did finish 2nd in the MVC...but is it enough?  A bad loss in the tourament has left MSU stale.  May need some crashing and burning from the red teams above to get in. 

Hofstra  [teal teams are on the "outside looking in"]: Got to the Colonial title game.....beaten George Mason twice in a week....but is that enough?  Eh.  They are as bubble as bubble gets.  Sometimes I think they are in....other times, Idon't.  The Pride have an top 25 RPI and are sort of a hot team right now.  I think they need at least one of those red teams to trip up hard in their conference tournament. 

Seton Hall:  Seton Hall finished with a better record than Cincinnati and Syracuse in Big East play....but they may get leapfrogged by both in the eyes of the selection committee.  The Hall was beaten, pretty soundly, by Rutgers in the first round of the Big East tourny....and that really stings.  Seton Hall went from a pretty good lock to a very shaky one in just under a week.  

Creighton:  Creighton, despite finishing up their season,will be bobbing and weaving in and out of my ratings.  Let's just say that Creighton better hope that none of the teams below make a strong run this week.  If so, they the Jays will be the odd man out of the MVC. 

Utah State:  Well, they are in the WAC title game.  I still think they are out with a loss [obviously a win gets them in]. 

Maryland:  They were whipped from the start of their game against BostonCollege.  BC jumped out to a 27-6 run and never looked back.  A beating like this surely will kick the Terps out of a tourny shot.   

Florida State:  A huge loss to Wake Forest, the last place team in the ACC regular season.  I think this is a more damaging a loss than the Duke game was an uplifting win.  I think FSU is done.....no shot at an at large bid.

Air Force:  Air Force couldn't afford to lose in the Mountain West quarterfinals.  Now, unless the committee is just overly impressed by their inflated record.....they are really on the outside.  

UTEP:  Were beaten by Utah State and most likely will be relegated to the NIT. 

Colorado:  After barely beating Baylor, the Buffs were embarrassed against Texas A&M....losing by 33.  They are done.