Thursday, January 21, 2010

North Carolina Will NOT Make the NCAA Tournament


This has been an interesting season for the boys of Chapel Hill. Coming off a National Championship, watching pretty much every starter get drafted by the NBA, dealing with a hellacious schedule and a lot of inexperienced players and you knew this was more of a transition year at North Carolina.

That's fine. You can't win the championship every year. The Heels have already lost seven games this year (including three in a row). One was to No. 1 Texas. Another was to No. 2 Kentucky. A third was to No. 5 Syracuse. Yet another was to No. 16 Clemson and No. 18 Georgia Tech. Last night, a good Wake Forest team came into the Dean Dome and crushed the Heels. Okay, the seventh loss against the College of Charleston is bad. But that's quite a tough schedule.

Right now, the Heels sit at 12-7 and reeling. Sure, UNC has played a brutal schedule (which do include wins over Michigan State and Ohio State) but they are running out of losses. To me, I put the limit at 13 (that would include a loss in the ACC Tournament and make them, at least, 19-13). That means the Heels only have five more regular season losses before things get dicey.

Well, there are those two games against Duke, probably the ACC's top team. Despite UNC's hold over the Blue Devils, that could easily turn into two more losses. Three to go.

The Heels make return trips to both Georgia Tech and Wake Forest (remember, both won in Chapel Hill) which should result in two more losses. One left.

That's where it gets interesting. The Heels could win the rest of those games. They could also lose a majority of them. North Carolina does have a favorable home schedule aside from Duke. NC State, Virginia, Florida State and Miami come calling. However, the Heels are winless on the road this year and have to make trips to Maryland, Boston College, NC State and Virginia Tech -- along with the games with Duke, Ga Tech and Wake that I previously mentioned. I don't think Carolina can win all those games. They'll lose at least one of those, probably at least three.

That could put the Heels with 14 or 15 losses and despite the tough schedule I don't think it's good enough to get into this tournament. Sure, the landscape of the NCAA is a bit down this year so there is a better chance they could slide in.

It just is a shame that the Heels even got to go through this. What a disappointing season.

1 comment:

bumphus said...

Can't sore, can't defend , bad chemistry, damn Roy!! get Harrison now!!