DIVISIONAL WEEKEND PREVIEW

This weekend's set of divisional games is dripping with subplots.  In each of the four Divisional games....it is a rematch of a regular season contest [only Seattle-Washington has changed venues].  You have Mike Shanahan v Bill Billichick.  You have defensive gurus Lovie Smith v John Fox with their #2 and #3 defenses battling.  Both #6 seeds are still alive.  There is exactly ONE team from each NFL division still alive [division champs Bengals, Giants and Buccs are gone...but 2nd place teams and understudys Steelers, Redskins and Panthers are still around]. 

One game will be in the rainy Northwest.  One will be in thin air.  One will be in a frozen ancient stadium.  And one will be in a dome.  Only Seattle and Carolina haven't won the Super Bowl....with only Seattle not even getting there.  Another oddity.  The top seeded Colts have been to the Super Bowl as an AFC team and an "NFC" team.  The other top seed, Seattle, just recently joined the NFC after 25 years in the AFC. 

REDSKINS AT SEAHAWKS

         

CREDENTIALS:  Washington won in Tampa last week, 17-10, to advance to the divisional round.  Seattle finished with an NFC-best 13-3 record and a NFC West title.

ODDS:  Seahawks by 9

WTF???  In the last month of the season, Matt Hasselbeck threw just 16 incompletions and 9 TDs.  He had an NFL record 76.1% completion rate in December.

OUTLOOK:  Sure, these two teams met early in the season...but that was looooong ago.  Both will try to run the football all day.  The Skins want to use Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts to control the field and control the clock.  Seattle will look the league MVP Shaun Alexander to move the ball down the field, get first downs and become the excellent red zone threat he's been all season long.   The best bet for Washington would be to get an early lead because I don'tsee them able to come from behind in Seattle.  Also, Washington has been winning of late due to takeaways....so winning the turnover battle is paramount. 

There are a ton of key matchups....but the main one will be the Redskins defensive line against the Seahawks O-line.  The Skins lineman have been doing a great job in the last several weeks of getting pressure on the QB.  However, Seattle's line does a great job keeping people off of Hasselbeck.  With the West Coast Offense, there are more shorter drops and routes...giving the Skins line even less time to get to the backfield.  Oh, and that Seattle line is the line that produced the NFL's leading rusher and the single season TD record holder, Alexander.   And remember that the Redskins' Renaldo Wynn broke his arm last week and is gone. 

Despite the odds, Washington can win this game.  They must dominate in the trenches, move the ball effectively, and keep 3rd downs less than 5 yards.  As evident against Tampa, the Skins struggled to stay out of 3rd and longs and were pathetic converting them.  That means Washington must get 4+ yards on first down.  Whether that's a Portis rush, screens to Moss or a dump off to Cooley....the Skins need to have positive gains on first down.  Third and longs could be disasterous with a Seahawks team that led the NFL in sacks.  Doing that keeps the ball moving and Shaun Alexander off the field. 

SPORTZ PICK:  Washington's offense will be a bit better....as Seattle's defense isn't as stout as Tampa's.  But Seattle's offense is a lot better.  Expect a steady dose of Shaun Alexander...forcing the Skins to come up to the line.  When that happens, look for Hasselbeck to get big plays against the Skins beat up secondary.  If they can do all that, they'll get their first postseason win since 1984.  Seahawks 24-13

PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS

CREDENTIALS:  New England polished off Jacksonville, 28-3 last weekend.  Denver won the AFC West.

ODDS:  Broncos by 3

WTF???  Denver has won 13 of the last 16 meetings with New England. 

OUTLOOK:  This should be a great game.  You have the Broncos playing at home....and own one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.  But, coming in is the New England Patriots.  Winners of 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls [and the last 2] and riding a 10-game playoff winning streak.  Tom Brady, the clutch QB of our era.  Bill Billichick, the best big game coach of our era.  Also coming in is a poor rush attack and a team nailed by various injuries this year.  Of course, ask Jacksonville how badly they are beaten up. 

There are a ton of key matchups....but the main one will be if New England can hold up that Bronco stable of backs.  New England has had the best run defense in the NFL over the second half of the season....but Denver has a duo of nice backs in Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell who burned them before.  And when they need a tough yard, Ron Dayne is out there.  In the earlier meeting, Denver bowled over the Pats for more than 180 rushing yards.  The Pats must keep these guys in check and force Jake Plummer to beat them....which is another difficult task to stop.

One of the interesting problems with Plummer is that you want to put pressure on him....but you want to contain him as well.  Collapse the pocket around him.  If you allow him to scramble out, he can make plays.  And with a shaky New England secondary, it is tough to ask them to stick with guys for extended periods of time.  Rest assured, Billichick will have a solid defensive gameplan in place for Plummer and the run game.  But will he have the personel to pull it off?  That will be the cat and mouse game thatMike Shanahan and Bill Billichick will play all night. 

SPORTZ PICK:  All great things come to an end.  I hate the "they are champs until they lose" reason to pick New England.  Yes, they are the champs until they lose....but that blanket statement doesn't explain why they'll win this game.  To me, New England is still in it's Dynasty Era....but all those injuries to the secondary will be exposed with Ashly Lelie and Rod Smith make big plays and Tatum Bell gets some huge runs.  Tom Brady and Co will do their best to keep pace on the scoreboard....but Denver employs some darn good DBs that can lock down the Pats receivers at times.  That's why I am going with Denver.  New England's 10-game playoff win streak comes to an end....but they will most assuredly be back next season to make another run.    Broncos 30-20

STEELERS AT COLTS

                                     

CREDENTIALS:  Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati 31-17 to get to this game.  Indianapolis finished with the NFL's best record....14-2. 

ODDS:  Colts by 9

WTF???  The Steelers have won 6 of their last 7 games against the Colts.  However, those 6 wins were all in Pittsburgh...and the one loss was the lone game in Indianapolis, which was played earlier this year. 

OUTLOOK:  Now we will get to see if it is Rest or Rust.  The Colts essentially rested everyone for their final 2 games of the season...and hasn't played a truly meaningful game in a month.  The Steelers, on the other hand, have won 5 games in a row...and needed every one of those wins just to get to this point.  One loss...and the Chiefs would be here right now.  You can laugh off the rust factor....but remember that the Colts rested their main guys in the preseason....and then they struggled with their timing in the first few weeks of the regular season. 

There are a ton of key matchups....but the main one will be how well the Steelers' secondary keeps up with those Colts receivers.  They did a great job holding down Cincy's stout wide-outs to limited damage.  But that was with Jon Kitna running the show.  This is Manning....and these are Harrison, Wayne, Stokley, Clark and James...among others.  Pittsburgh did do a nice job holding down the Colts receivers after a shaky start in the November meeting. 

For Pittsburgh to win...they must keep those guys in check.  Indianapolis wants to jump on the Steelers early and then run them to death.  Ya know, the Steeler plan.  So Pittsburgh must find ways to stay in this game and have a legit shot in the final quarter.  With that Colts running game and their improved defense...it will be hard for that Pitt offense to mount a major comeback. 

SPORTZ PICK:  The rest certianly helps one Colt....Edgerrin James.  He will be really fresh and ready to carry the offensive load.  I think the Colts will break the game open in the middle 15 mintues of the game...and James will bleed Pittsburgh dry.  Colts 27-10

PANTHERS AT BEARS

                           

CREDENTIALS:  Carolina dominated the Giants last week, 23-0, to get to this game.  Chicago was the surprise team of the NFL...winning the NFC North and getting a 1st round bye

ODDS:  Bears by 3

WTF???  Carolina has a +21 turnover margin and was the least penalized team in the NFL.

OUTLOOK:  This should be a close, low scoring game.  The NFL's #2 and #3 defenses collide.....with two of the best defensive lines out there.  Both teams force turnovers too.  As stated, the Panthers have a +21 turnover ratio....while the Bears finished 2nd in the NFL with 24 picks.  However, their turnover differential was just +6, due to the fact that they turn the ball over too.  Chicago will try to keep the ball on the ground with Thomas Jones [who had a great season] and get possession passes to guys like former Panther Mushin Muhammad. 

There are a ton of key matchups....but the main one will be how the Bears approach the Panther passing attack.  Granted, it is Delhomme to Steve Smith for the most part....but no one seems to be able to stop it.  In the previous game these teams played, Smith had 14 catches for 169 yards.  But no scores.  The secondary must do a better job in that regard.  Chicago will try to bring pressure to Delhomme, forcing him to make throws when he isn't set [and those tend to sail] and getting some picks that way.  If he can set up and make clean throws....he has the ability to pick the defense apart.  In a game where both defenses can stop both runners, the ability to move the ball in the air could be the difference.  Carolina's passing attack is a big, big advantage. 

And don't discount experience again.  Not just playoff experience...but game experience.  Grossman has played the equivalent of 6 quarters this season....yet must lead his team in a playoff game against the #3 defense in the NFL with big game defensive backs.  Meanwhile, Carolina has guys that have come up huge in playoff games [Delhomme, Foster, Manning] and aren't nervous of the atmosphere. 

SPORTZ PICK:  Well, both defenses will hold their ground.  And I know it seems trite, but protection of the football will be huge. I mean, it is a major deal here.  Chicago loves to pick the ball off....and Delhomme is known as a gunslinger.  However, if Jake can keep his throws on target and build a bit of a lead....then it will be a steady dose of DeShaun Foster the rest of the way.  I think that the Panthers can get Smith open [they did before]....Foster will be adequate enough to keep the chains moving....and the Panther secondary will expose Grossman's short prep time.  So, yes...just one week in and I'm already going against my pick for NFC Champion.  Here ya go, Mom.   Panthers 20-13