Monday, January 2, 2006

So Who Will Be In Super Bowl XL?

                              

The Jaguars, Steelers, Panthers and Redskins are in the playoffs, but don't get overzealous and pick them in any Super Bowl pools you may have....no matter how hot you think Washington and Pittsburgh are. Fifth and sixth seeds just don't make it to the Super Bowl.

Since the NFL has gone to the current playoff format....

*There have been 180 playoff teams
*15 seasons
*30 Super Bowl teams
*Super Bowl teams that were a #1 or #2 seed [aka, have a first round bye with the second round game at home]:  25
*Super Bowl teams that were a #3 seed:  1 [the 2003 Carolina Panthers]
*Super Bowl teams that were a #4 seed:  4
*Super Bowl teams that were a #5 or #6 seed:  0

In fact, the only #5 or #6 seed that ever even made it to the Conference Championship game was the 1995 Colts and 1996 Jaguars. 

But, don't go thinking this will be a Colts-Seahawks Super Bowl either. 

The last time the #1 seed in the AFC and the #1 seed in the NFC have met for the Super Bowl was waaaaaaaay back in 1993 when the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys met for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XXVIII.  That's 12 straight seasons without the top teams from each conference meeting up.  Amazing stat. 

Also, in the past 5 years...only ONCE has a Super Bowl champion been the #1 seed in their conference.  The 2003 New England Patriots.  Think about it...

*2004 Patriots had to go into Pittsburgh to win the AFC title.
*2002 Buccaneers had to go into Philadelphia to win the NFC title.
*2001 Patriots had to go into Pittsburgh to win the AFC title.
*2000 Ravens had to go into Oakland to win the AFC title. 

Ah...so a bit more thinking needs to go into this, eh? 

So, we've eliminated the possibility of the Redskins, Steelers, Jaguars or Panthers in the Super Bowl.....and the possibility of the Colts AND Seahawks getting there.  We've also shown that the Bengals, Patriots, Buccaneers or Giants have a slim shot at it.  So one of these teams will pull the upset:  Bears or Broncos. 

So, let's break that down. 

Denver has silently been an elite team all season long.  They started the season with a dud in Miami....but have since been 13-2.  The Chicago Bears started 1-3 before winning 10 of 12. 

I think the Colts are on a mission.  I think they have the best team in the NFL and will be in the Super Bowl.  So, if they are there...then Seattle isn't.  And if that is the case...then the NFC Champion will be the......Chicago Bears

Why not?  Imagine.  Super Bowl XL.  Detroit, Michigan.  Indianapolis v Chicago.  The NFL's best offense against the NFL's best defense.  Imagine that kind of game! 

What a postseason this may be!

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

I actually had Broncos-Bears

Anonymous said...

Sportz-
If i may wander from the subject a bit, I would like to go back to your bowl picks.

Let me preface this by saying your pro picks are probably the best I have seen this year, albeit it amateur or professionally picking games. Great job!

But your college bowl picks stink!

Through tonight, assuming VaTech goes ahead and wins (up 21-0 2nd qtr), your total bowl picks as of this moment is 14-12.

My question to you Sportz, is what is the major difference in trying to pick a pro game, and a college bowl game?

Let's discuss.

Lew

Anonymous said...

Yeah...my bowl picks have blown which has really cost me in a lucrative Football Pickem [both NFL and NCAA] league I am in.

In years past in that league....I do fairly well in the Bowl games, but for some reason it hasn't worked out for me.  One thing I've usually banked on in bowl picks is proximity.  If a bowl site is near one of the schools...I usually swing a bit that way.  That's why I picked Houston to win at Ft Worth, Boise St to win in Boise, etc.  

As for what is the difference between picking college and pro games??  That is very, very, very easy.  I get to watch the pro games.  My job forces me to work Saturdays, so I don't get to watch that much college football as I'd like.  However, I am off Sundays, I own the NFL Sunday Ticket, I have a great wife that lets me sit in my Sportz Room and I literally watch EVERY FREAKING NFL GAME in the entire season.  I have three TVs and they each have an NFL game on them.  Honest to God, I've seen a least one play in every game this year live.  Because of that, I can make a much better pro pick than in college....especially with teams I don't get to see play.  

-Sportz

Anonymous said...

Bears could not score more points than my ex-girlfriend! Colts vs Giants!!!!! Go Peyton!!!!!!!
DaWeav

Anonymous said...

Ummmmm.....you might want to check your facts. The 1997 Denver Broncos were the #6 seed and went all the way and won the SuperBowl. They beat Jacksonville on Dec. 27th, 1997 in Denver, 42-17.

Anonymous said...


are you crazy! we all know that the steelers and the seattle are going to  
the super bowl XL. in detoit, michigan.
steelers are hot! at the end of the year and everybody's heathy.
and you know in postseason everybody starts 0/0 so we will see on SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Didnt the Redskins go to a Super Bowl as a wild card once. I think so but I don't know how to verify.

Anonymous said...

lets look at the whole cookie jar Tampa beats washington, Carolina beats ny giants to bad tiki. carolina then brings there other team into seattle to prance all over seattle. tampa will win there second cold game in tampa history in chicago good job this year bears,  Guess what sport fans, NFC championship game Tampa and carolina at Tampa ,Tampa wins. Afc The Bungles are 1 and done, Jacksonville had a great year but Brady is going to finish better. Then we have Pittsburg playing Indy at indy, Sorry guys the bus stops here everybody off. Then we get exciting, New England goes to mile high cough, cough, my pick is denver. AFC championship Denver at Indy The best pick is indy. There you have your Superbowl
Tampa Bay and the Indianapolis Colts. Guess what, Dungy gets beat out again.

Anonymous said...

"Ummmmm.....you might want to check your facts. The 1997 Denver Broncos were the #6 seed and went all the way and won the SuperBowl. They beat Jacksonville on Dec. 27th, 1997 in Denver, 42-17."

Actually....you need to check your facts.  Denver was the #4 seed that year.   Jacksonville was the #6 seed.  
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_playoffs,_1997-98

Anonymous said...

Sportz Looser.  You need to go back and look at who has the most balance offense and Defence.  Seattle and Indy can both run the ball well (Seattle better) and also throw the ball well (Indy better).  Say what you want about defence and the Bears, but no one will be able to stop the two top offensive teams.  The last one to have the ball wins it all.

Indy vs Seattle.  Indy wins by a touchdown.

Did you see the Rose Bowl tonight?  That is a preview of what will happen in the Super Bowl. The two team can score at will.

See you in Detroit!

Anonymous said...

SORRY BUT WITH THE INJURIES AND ALL I STILL HAVE TO PUT MY MONEY ON THE PATRIOTS.  LAST WEEK PROVED IT WITH THE LOSS AND THE LAUGHTER  GAME MEANT NOTHING, AND THE PLAYERS WERE RESTED.  LOOKS TO ME LIKE THE PATS WILL DO IT AGAIN.  JUST TO MANY POSITIVE THINGS ABOUT THE TEAM, NOT MENTIONED A HEAD COACH THAT IS UNBELIEVABLE.

Anonymous said...

The giants are going to win, tiki wont let it go any other way !

Anonymous said...

   Colts and Bears, With colts and the Colts win 31 to 20.

Anonymous said...

okay, heres my prediction.                                                      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WILD CARD-------AFC PLAYOFFS--------NFC PLAYOFFS---SUPER BOWL XL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patriots-21 W           Patriots-35                  Seahawks-28 W   Steelers-24 W
Jaguars-17 L             Colts-30                      Redskins-7 L       Seahawks-21 L
                                                                                                   
Bangals-21  L            Steelers-14   W            Panthers-14 W  
Steelers-24 W            Broncos-10 L               Bears-6 L          
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------
Redskins-28 W                           AFC CHAMPIONSHIP---------NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Buccaneers-10 L                      ----------------------------------------------

Anonymous said...

okay, heres my prediction.                                                      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WILD CARD-------AFC PLAYOFFS--------NFC PLAYOFFS---SUPER BOWL XL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patriots-21 W           Patriots-35                  Seahawks-28 W   Steelers-24 W
Jaguars-17 L             Colts-30                      Redskins-7 L       Seahawks-21 L
                                                                                                   
Bangals-21  L            Steelers-14   W            Panthers-14 W  
Steelers-24 W            Broncos-10 L               Bears-6 L          
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------
Redskins-28 W                           AFC CHAMPIONSHIP---------NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Buccaneers-10 L                      ----------------------------------------------

Anonymous said...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WILD CARD-------AFC PLAYOFFS--------NFC PLAYOFFS---SUPER BOWL XL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patriots-21 W           Patriots-35                  Seahawks-28 W   Steelers-24 W
Jaguars-17 L             Colts-30                      Redskins-7 L       Seahawks-21 L
                                                                                                   
Bangals-21  L            Steelers-14   W            Panthers-14 W  
Steelers-24 W            Broncos-10 L               Bears-6 L          
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------
Redskins-28 W                           AFC CHAMPIONSHIP---------NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Buccaneers-10 L                      --------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Steelers-

Anonymous said...

WHO CARES...I HATE FOOTBALL!!!!!

Anonymous said...

ind=ch=ind super bull

Anonymous said...

You have forgotten about the early season injuries the NE Patriots had and have overcome.  Bruschi is back though not 100%.  Richard Seymour is back 100%.  Corey Dillon is back 100%.  It goes on and on.  The Broncos suck.  They have had an easy schedule all year with garbage teams.  Indianapolis won't beat the healthy NE Patriots either.  Its a repeat for New England Patriots.  Get over it.  

Anonymous said...

Colts all the way!

Anonymous said...

JUST WANTED TO SAY.HA-HA-HA-HA AND ONE MOREHA TO ALL THOSE DONKEY FANS THAT ACTUALLY THOUGHT THOSE JACKASSES WERE ACTUALLY GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL THEY GOT LUCKY WITH ALL THERE GAMES ALL I GOTTA SAY ITS GOOD TO SEE JAKE THE FAKE BACK:)    GO STEELERS!!!!!!!!!!!