Wednesday, August 4, 2004

Pete Can Repeat

USC and LSU enter this college football season as defending National Champions. USC handled Michigan in the Rose Bowl to win the Associated Press National Championship. LSU manhandled Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl to win the BCS [aka Coaches] Championship. It sure would have been nice to see these two play and settle who’s the best of 2003.

But that was last year. Which one of these schools has a good shot at repeating their championship season? USC? LSU?

I’ll take Pete Carroll’s USC Trojans.

USC’s offense is still formidable. Matt Leinart will be a Heisman trophy candidate from the start. I mean, they lose a Heisman winning QB in Carson Palmer, THEN go and win a championship. They did lose Kevin Colbert at the receiver spot….and who knows where Mike Williams stands. Those are just two of the 10 starters that the Trojans must replace.

For LSU, they will have to break in a new QB. Matt Mauck is gone…and it isn’t clear who his heir will be. But, as USC showed last year….you can lose a great QB and still go on to great things. The Tigers are a running team anyways, led by Justin Vincent and Joseph Addai. The defense, the strength of this team last year, should be the strength again this year. If they can get the young guys to step up on the D-line…then they could be back in the title hunt.

Of course, it isn’t always how good you are….sometimes it is your schedule. USC’s relatively easy schedule is what kept them out of N’Awlins last year. Well, it is a little tougher this year. There non-conference schedule does include a game against Virginia Tech in FedEx Field near Washington, DC…and a date at BYU and hosting Colorado State. And you always have that Notre Dame game. But the Pac-10 sked is pretty manageable. They don’t have to play Oregon this year…and have Cal at home. The biggest conference test will most likely be in Pullman against Washington State…then the next Saturday at Oregon State. If the wade thru that part of the schedule unscathed, they should run out the rest of the Pac 10. And remember, the Pac-10 doesn’t hold a conference championship game.

The SEC does….and that’s not all the SEC will hand the LSU Tigers. That LSU schedule is a doozy! The good news is that they only play 4 games away from Baton Rouge. The bad news is that those games are against Auburn, Georgia, Florida and Arkansas. Georgia is also in the hunt for the National Championship…and should be playing the Tigers in the SEC Championship Game. That means that LSU will most likely have to beat Georgia TWICE to even get to the BCS title game. If LSU can navigate thru the first half of the schedule…they should have an easy time with the second half. Troy State, Vandy, Bama and Ole Miss before the final game against Arkansas.

So, USC has an easier schedule and one less game to navigate thru. So, I’ll take them as the team more likely to repeat their championship season. Of course, look out for Georgia, Miami, Oklahoma and Florida State to try to keep that from happening.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Never bet on "Percy" Carroll, Sportz....