Okay. I've been doing my whole Sportz' Bubble Watch for a few years now and I think it is time to start back up. With only a few weeks left in the season before conference tournaments, let's see how the bubble looks.
So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. The ones in green are spot on, no doubt locks. The ones in blue are pretty much in, too, though they can't afford to go in a tailspin. The ones in red are smack dab on the bubble. Every team bold-faced is among my picks for the tournament.
I figure there are 20 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 11 conferences that are worth multiple bids. So who should be going?
ATLANTIC COAST: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State,Virginia Tech.
Duke is the class of the league right now. Wake Forest and Maryland are in that rung beneath them, but both look worthy of a spot. Clemson is looking good, though they can't afford a slide. Same goes to Ga Tech, FSU and Va Tech. I like the Hokies a lot, but they don't really have any big wins to point to.
BIG EAST: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt, Georgetown, Louisville, UConn, Marquette, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, South Florida
This is an interesting league. The top five teams are locks with the rest being squarely on the bubble. Louisville and UConn have been streaking towards a berth while the rest have been sliding backwards. I think this is an eight-bid league so there will be some wars over the next couple of weeks.
BIG TEN: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern
This is a pretty open and shut case. Four teams are locks while Illinois and Minnesota attempt to get an at-large bid. Illinois got some huge wins that were nearly negated by two tough losses. They don't have the RPI to toy around with these kind of losses. And Northwestern again fails to get to its first NCAA Tournament.
BIG XII: Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
This is quite the league. Baylor and TxA&M are right at the door to being locks. Oklahoma State's RPI should get them in.
PAC-10: California, Arizona State, Washington
This is looking like a one-bid league. Amazing. Cal is the one team that wouldn't have to win the Pac-10 tournament in order to get into the dance. Their RPI and SOS are great.
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
The SEC East has three locks already ... which could help Florida get in. The two Mississippi schools have an opportunity to do some damage before the season ends.
MOUNTAIN WEST: New Mexico, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Has the balance of power in the west changed? The MWC gets four teams in while the Pac-10 gets just one? New Mexico and BYU are easily in while San Diego State and UNLV have the numbers to join them.
A-10: Temple, Richmond, Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, Charlotte, St. Louis
This should be the scariest conference to big conference at-large hopefuls. This race is so bunched up and tough to shake out that it's difficult to say who all has an upper hand.
C-USA: UTEP, UAB, Memphis, Marshall
MVC: Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Illinois State
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's
ONE BID LEAGUES (20): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt and WAC. As for the Horizon, Butler is a lock for the tournament and the only way anyone else can get in is by an upset in the conference tournament.
There are still some landmines out there. Old Dominion (Colonial) and Utah State (WAC) could nab at-large berths if they happen to fall in their conference tournaments.
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