Saturday, March 15, 2014

Sportz Assassin Bubble Watch - March 15

The Ides of March!  As conference tournament time continues, so does the bubble bursting.  For a full recap of who I think are locks, please check out my main Bubble Watch page.  Below is what the bubble teams are doing.  Just like before, the blue teams are who I think are looking good for a bid, orange teams are on the good side of the bubble to get in and the red are teams that I think are currently out:


George Washington:  Beating UMass moves them into lock status.  UMass is a team that will be in the field and GW took care of them without much drama.  Move 'em on up!

Arizona State:  No game as they lost Thursday in the Pac-12 tournament.  Still, they shouldn't have to worry about missing the field on Sunday.
Xavier:  The Muskies are a tournament team in my eyes.  Losing to a Creighton team that sees McDermott rolling isn't a crime.  Again, look below and you should see why I'm confident in a bid.

Stanford:  UCLA just pounded them, but I still think they should feel pretty safe.  

CAME IN FRIDAY AS ORANGE ("in" side of the bubble):

Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers lost a close one to Ohio State that they led for most of the game.  A win would have really moved them ahead of the rest of the bubble, but this loss leaves them a bit in limbo.  They have nice wins and are hot of late, but if the Committee's last taste of Corn is this one, it could spell trouble.  

Providence:  On the surface, beating Seton Hall isn't a big deal.  But the win does get them into the Big East title game against Creighton.  Obviously a win locks them in with an automatic bid.  A dignified loss certainly wouldn't kill them.  

Tennessee:  The Vols avoided a bubble-popping loss to South Carolina in the SEC quarterfinals and moves on to play Florida.  Tennessee already has a great SOS, so Florida just keeps moving that needle up.  A win and they should definitely feel safe.  Like most around bubble land, if you lose, just don't lose big.  A competitive game will do wonders.

St. Joseph's:  While not a bubble elimination game, St. Joe's got a huge win over Dayton.  As with me, the committee may have those two teams sitting together on their bubbles and St. Joe's three wins over Dayton is a huge trump card.  

Dayton:  See above for a quick recap.  Right now, I think Dayton is good.  However, their season is done and there are some bubble hard chargers around the country (NC State, for example) that could get hot and land them in the Dance.  The Flyers should be sweating on Sunday.  

CAME IN FRIDAY AS RED ("out" side of the bubble):

Minnesota:  This category is filled with schools who just looked bad in their final game ... a loss.  The Gophers were spanked by Wisconsin (26 points) and I just haven't gotten on their bandwagon at any point this year.  Those teams wearing orange above as well as teams making a bit of a charge right now have a better gripe than Minnesota.  Sure, the Gophers played a tough schedule, but they didn't win enough of them.
Missouri:  Broken record?  The Tigers got to face a top team that is locked into the tournament and got run out of the building.  In a weak SEC, that won't get it done.  Bye Mizzou!

NC State:  No, NC State isn't in after their win over Syracuse ... but they've made it into the discussion.  Beating a struggling Syracuse looks nice on the spreadsheet, but the Orange have been lacking of late.  The Wolfpack do get Duke on Saturday and a win there could really turn some heads.  Obviously State has a legit shot at beating Duke and either Virginia or Pitt and get an auto bid, but they could possible sneak in with a win over Duke with a great showing against Virginia -- not Pitt.

Florida State:  They were squeezed out by Virginia, which isn't a crime, but their numbers don't zing.  I have them here just because they'll be in the discussion.

St. John's: In a quasi-elimination game, the Providence loss probably knocks the Red Storm out of the Dance. In a Big East tournament ripe with upsets, you can either surmise that the league is good top to bottom or the league really isn't that tough. I believe the latter (Seton Hall over Nova????). Sorry St. John's.

Arkansas:  Their Thursday loss to South Carolina popped their bubble.

Georgetown:  Losing to DePaul cost them.
Utah:  The Utes got spanked by Arizona by 32 points.  Whatever miracle Utah had to get in is gone.  They are done.  

No comments: