Friday, June 11, 2010

NCAA Conference Realignment May Not Reach Armageddon Status

There are a lot of rumors flying everywhere about the future of college athletics. We do know that Colorado has left the Big XII for the Pac-10. We're pretty sure that Nebraska is leaving the Big XII for the Big Ten. After that, it is all speculative.

One note coming in Thursday night is that Texas and Texas A&M aren't on the same page about what they should do. Both want the Big XII to stay functional and it could happen that way. Texas has enough clout to keep the Big XII afloat.

It all comes down to one thing: will the Big Ten expand beyond the 12 teams in apparently has? If not, then I don't see this Armageddon thing happening. (Note: *-denotes a new team to the conference).

BIG TEN
EAST: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
WEST: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska*, Northwestern, Wisconsin


The Big Ten could stop at Nebraska, split into two divisions and host their championship game. This would be an interesting scenario since adding Nebraska really won't provide the big bang in their expanding their market share. But it would give them the lucrative title game (which could be played in Indianapolis, Detroit, Chicago or ... imagine it ... Green Bay.

PAC-12
NORTH: Colorado*, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah*, Washington, Washington State
SOUTH: Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC


Another issue is the ability of the Pac-10 to lure away five more schools from the Big XII. If those five schools feel that it is in their best interests to reform their conference, the Pac-10 may be looking at adding just Colorado and one more school. That school would most likely be Utah ... who would jump at that opportunity.

BIG XII
NORTH: BYU*, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State
SOUTH: Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU*, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech


If Texas and their crew decide to stay put, the Big XII will then have to reformulate itself. It could just let Nebraska and Colorado walk and turn into a 10-team conference (ironic that the Big Ten would have 12 teams and the Big XII would have 10). Not having a conference championship game could be to the likening of Texas and Oklahoma who then wouldn't have to win that extra game to get to a BCS game. Still, with all that's going on around (and the money a Big XII title game brings), I think the conference adds two more members. I see BYU and TCU making the jump.

In dividing up the conference, either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State would have to move north. Putting Oklahoma there would make an epic Texas-Oklahoma championship game. But I think that Oklahoma State goes so that exact scenario doesn't happen and it hindering both being able to get BCS berths.

SEC AND ACC

Both these conferences would stay the same. With the Armageddon deal not happening, neither conference (which have been quiet during all of this) will feel compelled to make any kinds of moves.

But for giggles, if the Armageddon deal happens ... here is what I see happening:

BIG TEN
EAST: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pitt*, Purdue, Rutgers*
WEST: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri*, Nebraska*, Northwestern, Wisconsin


PAC-16
EAST: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado*, Oklahoma*, Oklahoma State*, Texas*, Texas A&M*, Texas Tech*
WEST: Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State


SEC
EAST: Clemson*, Florida, Georgia, Ga Tech*, South Carolina, Tennessee, Va Tech*, West Virginia*
WEST: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Miss State, Vanderbilt


ACC
NORTH: Boston College, Cincinnati*, Louisville*, Marshall*, Maryland, Syracuse*, Temple*, UConn*
SOUTH: Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, So. Florida*, Virginia, Wake Forest

MOUNTAIN WEST
EAST: Baylor*, Iowa State*, Kansas*, Kansas State*, TCU, Wyoming
WEST: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV
-I could see the MWC add SMU, UTEP, Rice and Houston from CUSA if they wanted a 16-team league.

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