Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Winners and Losers In Expansion Armageddon


WINNERS

NOTRE DAME: The Irish took a gamble and it seemed to have paid off. Despite the rumors of widespread expansion that would end up ripping apart the Big East, the Irish stayed calm and let all the pieces move around them. When the dust settled, the Irish are still in the best position for themselves and what they wanted all along.

COLORADO: While I'm not thrilled with the Pac-10's moves, if you are a Buffs fan then you should be happy. Colorado makes more sense in the Pac-10 and you'll get to travel to sunny destinations in California, the Bay Area and the Pacific Northwest. It is a perfect fit for them.

BIG XII COMMISH: Don Beebe (is that his name?) saved his butt by convincing Texas to stay in the Big XII. He was a day away from helming a conference that would either have to be completely rebuilt or no conference at all. Now he helms a conference with all members happier than they were two weeks ago. It's a better basketball conference (losing Nebraska and Colorado does hurt the football side of things) and it gets rid of the Big XII title game that Oklahoma and Texas hated. Now they can take their 10-team conference and hold a typical 9-game season to determine their real champion.

UTAH: The Utes will most likely be asked to be the Pac-10's 12th member very soon and they will of course jump all over that. Utah will be the only non-BCS school to move into a BCS conference. And with them going to the Pac-10, their recruiting opens up considerably. Plus, they would walk into the Pac-10 (or 12) North as, most likely, the best program. Who else challeges them in football? Colorado? Oregon? Oregon State? We will see a lot of USC-Utah title games.

ACC AND SEC: Both for different reasons. For the ACC, the expansion, so far, hasn't bothered their conference. That could all change if Maryland leaves for the Big Ten, but I'm not so sure that will happen. Even if it does, the ACC has plenty to choose from (Pitt, Syracuse, UConn) to fill the void. While it doesn't really change the SEC at all, it does keep them as the power league in the country. They have the best football conference and great TV contracts and, since the Pac-10 and Big Ten got marginally better instead of exponentially better, the SEC isn't behind the times. Also for the SEC, since the Pac-10 couldn't pry them away, that gets them some extra time to work on Texas and Oklahoma just in case they want to bolt down the road.

BIG EAST: The fact that there is still a Big East is amazing. If the dominos fell as they were believe to have, the Big East would have been raided by the Big Ten, ACC and SEC. The football league would no longer exist and the basketball league would be severely damaged. The Big East isn't out of the woods yet (Rutgers, among others, is on the Big Ten's radar) but at least they have a pulse.

BOISE STATE: BSU took a gamble and it has paid off. Going to the MWC was a no-brainer ... but it could've been disasterous if a rebuilding Big XII decided to loot the MWC. Since BSU is a newbie, they'd been stuck with the leftovers and, ironically, WAC teams that are added to replace them.


LOSERS


NEBRASKA: Sorry, but aside from the cash grab, I don't see how this works out for the Huskers. Their football program will struggle in the deeper Big Ten and they are the most western of schools. They will lose the Texas recruiting base since they won't be playing those schools (why would any of them keep up with them?). While the midwest is beaming with talent, most of that won't go all the way out to Nebraska to play. They'll be a solid program but nothing more than a mediocre team. As for hoops, they get to be further down the pecking order. Penn State and Northwestern can't wait for the Huskers to get in so they aren't the laughingstock of the league.

PAC-10: Look, the Pac-12 will get their championship game and their new TV deal. But none of it will be near what it could've been had Texas and those other schools joined. Now all the Pac-12 did was expand to Colorado and most likely Utah. Not really the groundbreaking moves we all thought. They get those markets, but they also get a Colorado football program that's sitting right on the fence and a hoops program that is horrid. Oh, and remember that USC and Oregon haven't had a good time of late with arrests, suspensions and NCAA sanctions.

MOUNTAIN WEST SCHOOLS: The MWC were on the verge of netting some quality programs in Kansas, K State, Missouri and Iowa State. Now none will be joining up with them and, in fact, they'll watch Utah leave for the Pac-10. They did get Boise State, which is great, but they'll lose Utah a week later. The MWC was hoping that a conference with Utah, Boise State and TCU (along with BYU) would get them into the door for an automatic BCS bid. Now that may not happen.

MEMPHIS: It could eventually work out for them, but they looked like whores. Rumor had it that they were willing to pay any BCS conference $10M for membership.

WAC: They watch Boise State ... their only football program worth anything ... bolt for the Mountain West. With the MWC staying pat, it really lessens the WAC's standing in the country.

TEXAS A&M: Two days ago, A&M was getting props for getting out of big brother Texas' shadow and work on a deal with the SEC. Instead, they stay in line and follow Texas' lead in a new Big XII.

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