I know that March just arrived and that the most important part of the North Carolina Tar Heels season is approaching. Senior night against Duke, ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament all loom. This team was assembled for one purpose: Win the whole thing!
Still, I wanna step back and look at what this team could look like next year. This year has that same feel of 2005 when the Heels had a team who had a great shot at winning the title.
GOODBYE! In college sports, there is always turnover due to graduation and early entrants into the pro draft. This Heels team will be no different. Tyler Hansbrough will take his wares to the NBA after one of the most decorated careers in college basketball. Fellow seniors Danny Green and Bobby Frasor will also graduate and move on in their careers.
Ty Lawson will most likely bolt for the NBA Draft. He would have been a first round pick last year and may have moved up a little in this year's class. The interesting case is Wayne Ellington. Ellington, like Lawson and Green, put his name in the '08 draft pool only to come back to school. While Lawson and Green seemed to have improved their draft statuses, Ellington has not. Several draftniks think that he will go undrafted if he enters the '09 draft. So maybe he stays on for another season at Carolina.
So what will this 2009-2010 team look like?
POINT GUARD: Dexter Strickland. This is an interesting battle. Strickland is wowing people and could have the inside track to a starting spot. However, Larry Drew II has run Roy Williams' system and will be the experienced guy going in. Still, I think Strickland will get the nod.
SHOOTING GUARD: Wayne Ellington. Again, this goes with the assumption that Ellington comes back for his senior season. If he does, I think that's a huge boost for this team. If he isn't back, then fifth-year senior Marcus Ginyard will most likely get the nod. Freshman Leslie McDonald should get into the rotation pretty quickly.
SMALL FORWARD: John Henson. This is very interesting. While Henson has the size to play the power positions, his true calling may be at small forward. He is in the mold of a Kevin Durant with his athleticism and range. Henson is so talented that it will be tough for Ol' Roy to keep him out of the lineup. Still, he could do so (ala Marvin Williams), start Ginyard and make Henson the sixth man. Starting Henson would give the Heels an unbelievably big front line (you'll see in a sec). The status of Will Graves is unknown (he is currently suspended) but if he returns, he gives the Heels another experienced player.
POWER FORWARD: Deon Thompson. It will be very interesting to see how Thompson responds to not being around Hansbrough. I tend to think Thompson will take the Scott Williams route of finally becoming "da man" in his senior season. He is the fifth guy on this year's team but may be the first option next year. Backing him up are the twins: David and Travis Wear. Both are bangers in the paint and smart players. They may not get a lot of minutes next year as this front line is so talented.
CENTER: Ed Davis. Many people feel that Davis is the best NBA prospect on the current Carolina team. Davis is a heady shotblocker and rebounder and is showing some scoring touch at times. I think he takes the reigns of a strong recent lineage of Tar Heel centers (Brandon Haywood to Sean May to Tyler Hansbrough). Backing Davis up will be those Wear twins, Thompson and Tyler Zeller. Zeller isn't a center by nature but is the tallest guy on the team and will get some minutes there.
As you can see, there is a lot of talent on next year's team and Roy Williams will have a slew of options to choose. He can go with that big front line of Henson-Thompson-Davis. Or go with the quick front line of Ginyard-Henson-Zeller.
The two biggest problems go hand-in-hand. Point guard play and experience. Only Ellington (again, that's assuming he's back) has been a big time performer at this level before. Thompson has a lot of experience but this will be the first time he will be the focus in the paint. Ginyard is a glue guy but he hasn't been healthy in a long time. Zeller, Davis and Drew are getting spot duty right now and not asked to do too much. That top-rated class of Henson, Strickland, Wear, Wear and McDonald are as talented as you can get ... but they are still freshman.
So can Roy feel comfortable about his point guards being so young? Drew and Strickland are talented but neither are ready to fully run Williams' offense.
Still, I wanna step back and look at what this team could look like next year. This year has that same feel of 2005 when the Heels had a team who had a great shot at winning the title.
GOODBYE! In college sports, there is always turnover due to graduation and early entrants into the pro draft. This Heels team will be no different. Tyler Hansbrough will take his wares to the NBA after one of the most decorated careers in college basketball. Fellow seniors Danny Green and Bobby Frasor will also graduate and move on in their careers.
Ty Lawson will most likely bolt for the NBA Draft. He would have been a first round pick last year and may have moved up a little in this year's class. The interesting case is Wayne Ellington. Ellington, like Lawson and Green, put his name in the '08 draft pool only to come back to school. While Lawson and Green seemed to have improved their draft statuses, Ellington has not. Several draftniks think that he will go undrafted if he enters the '09 draft. So maybe he stays on for another season at Carolina.
So what will this 2009-2010 team look like?
POINT GUARD: Dexter Strickland. This is an interesting battle. Strickland is wowing people and could have the inside track to a starting spot. However, Larry Drew II has run Roy Williams' system and will be the experienced guy going in. Still, I think Strickland will get the nod.
SHOOTING GUARD: Wayne Ellington. Again, this goes with the assumption that Ellington comes back for his senior season. If he does, I think that's a huge boost for this team. If he isn't back, then fifth-year senior Marcus Ginyard will most likely get the nod. Freshman Leslie McDonald should get into the rotation pretty quickly.
SMALL FORWARD: John Henson. This is very interesting. While Henson has the size to play the power positions, his true calling may be at small forward. He is in the mold of a Kevin Durant with his athleticism and range. Henson is so talented that it will be tough for Ol' Roy to keep him out of the lineup. Still, he could do so (ala Marvin Williams), start Ginyard and make Henson the sixth man. Starting Henson would give the Heels an unbelievably big front line (you'll see in a sec). The status of Will Graves is unknown (he is currently suspended) but if he returns, he gives the Heels another experienced player.
POWER FORWARD: Deon Thompson. It will be very interesting to see how Thompson responds to not being around Hansbrough. I tend to think Thompson will take the Scott Williams route of finally becoming "da man" in his senior season. He is the fifth guy on this year's team but may be the first option next year. Backing him up are the twins: David and Travis Wear. Both are bangers in the paint and smart players. They may not get a lot of minutes next year as this front line is so talented.
CENTER: Ed Davis. Many people feel that Davis is the best NBA prospect on the current Carolina team. Davis is a heady shotblocker and rebounder and is showing some scoring touch at times. I think he takes the reigns of a strong recent lineage of Tar Heel centers (Brandon Haywood to Sean May to Tyler Hansbrough). Backing Davis up will be those Wear twins, Thompson and Tyler Zeller. Zeller isn't a center by nature but is the tallest guy on the team and will get some minutes there.
As you can see, there is a lot of talent on next year's team and Roy Williams will have a slew of options to choose. He can go with that big front line of Henson-Thompson-Davis. Or go with the quick front line of Ginyard-Henson-Zeller.
The two biggest problems go hand-in-hand. Point guard play and experience. Only Ellington (again, that's assuming he's back) has been a big time performer at this level before. Thompson has a lot of experience but this will be the first time he will be the focus in the paint. Ginyard is a glue guy but he hasn't been healthy in a long time. Zeller, Davis and Drew are getting spot duty right now and not asked to do too much. That top-rated class of Henson, Strickland, Wear, Wear and McDonald are as talented as you can get ... but they are still freshman.
So can Roy feel comfortable about his point guards being so young? Drew and Strickland are talented but neither are ready to fully run Williams' offense.
All I know is that the 2009-2010 won't have the kinds of pressure the past three Heels teams have had. It has been win-it-all or fail in the last couple of years. Next year will have its own share of expectations but it will have that feel of 2005-2006 when a stripped down Heels team shocked everyone by being really good.
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