ACC Needs to Aggressively Go After the Pac-12

 

The biggest sports news over the last week was Texas and Oklahoma informing the Big 12 that they're leaving and then formally asking for membership into the Southeastern Conference. 

That news in itself is groundbreaking. Texas is one of the biggest brands in college athletics while Oklahoma has been a steady face at or near the top of college football ... and both are joining the premiere conference that has won 11 of the last 15 football national championships. It will create a 16-team league with some of the best programs in the country all in one spot.

The ripple effect is what could happen to college athletics. Is this the beginning of a seismic shift where college football ... or college sports ... looks completely different than what we've known. We can all project what that will look like, but the wheels are in motion now and everyone is in game mode so they won't get left out.

I'm an ACC guy, and the ACC is in a tough position. The good news is that the league has a Grant of Rights deal that goes to 2036. The bad news is that it is a bad financial TV deal that will put the league at the bottom in terms of revenue and will be a reason schools may eventually look to leave. Other good news is that Notre Dame is tied to the league until the deal is up in 2036 ... and the bad news is that it isn't attractive to give up their independent status in football to join a league that's on edge.

So the ACC needs to do something. Adding West Virginia does nothing. Going after the Big 12 leftovers isn't really attractive to do and won't net much, financially or in regards to stability.  None of that would help woo Notre Dame in any way.

But raiding the Pac-12 could.

When the last two rounds of expansion hit, the ACC was an aggressor. They wanted Miami from the Big East, and ended up taking Virginia Tech and Boston College along with it. That created bad blood between the two leagues, which became even more strained when a decade ago the ACC took Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville and, yes, Notre Dame's non-football sports as well. In the middle of all that, the ACC took a hit as inaugural member Maryland bolted the ACC for the Big Ten. The ACC is the one of the four major conferences that got hit ... and also showed that they have the ability to be ruthless.

So go after the Pac-12. 

The Big Ten doesn't want to because they have a close working relationship with the league. The Pac-12, while stable, doesn't have the kind of options to bulk up its league as the SEC, Big Ten or ACC. So appeal to the Pac-12 powers now before someone else does.

See if you can pull USC and UCLA ... and Stanford and California ... and Oregon. Yes, that may sound ridiculous but we've entered the realm of outside the box thinking. For the ACC, it is only a matter of time before the SEC or Big Ten starts cozying up to Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Miami ... if they haven't already. For the Pac-12, it's only a matter of time before they're on the outside watching the SEC and Big Ten control everything.

The ACC has an attractive offer. The ACC, along with the SEC, is the only conference to have put a team in every College Football Playoff. The Pac-12 hasn't had a team in it since 2017 and hasn't won a game since Oregon won one in 2015. The ACC can say that they will form a 20-team league in pod form ... with four pods with five teams in each. Those five schools would live in a pod together and then venture out for national games against the other pods.

It gives the California schools and Oregon a pathway to recruit in the south and east coast ... and their games shown on TV all Saturday long all season long. It give the ACC the same thing, as the league would now be able to have content on all day ... including owning the late night audience. The ACC could imagine having a Oregon-Miami game at noon, a Clemson-North Carolina game at 3:30pm, Virginia Tech-Florida State at 7pm, and Stanford-USC at 10:30pm with other games sprinkled on other stations. That is attractive enough to open ESPN's pockets up a bit more. 

Oh, and adding five Pac-12 teams would only get the ACC to 19. Who's the 20th?

Notre Dame.

Bringing in USC and Stanford would be a draw for Notre Dame, and would house seven ACC games that the Irish already play during the season (currently, Notre Dame plays five ACC schools and play USC and Stanford every year). So how much different would it be for Notre Dame to play one or two more conference games (the ACC right now has an 8-game schedule, though a 9-game slate would be more appropriate in a 20-team league)? The ACC already has an open working relationship with Notre Dame and could still allow the Irish to keep most of their independent perks while still having them as a full member of the conference.

Notre Dame can still have their TV package with NBC (which is for home games), while the ACC can still offer ESPN or another bidder the Irish's road games. So ESPN would know that every other year, they'd get a Notre Dame-USC game.

It is a wild concept, but it might work. Here is how my pod proposal would work

NORTH: Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
SOUTH: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech
CENTRAL: Clemson, Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
PAC: Cal, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC

That keeps the historically great programs (Notre Dame, Clemson, USC, and Miami/Florida State) in their own pod. Keep a 9-game regular season schedule where you play the other four teams in your pod once, allow for any "historic rivalries" to continue ... like Notre Dame's with USC and Stanford, North Carolina-Virginia, Clemson-Georgia Tech, Miami-Boston College, etc. and then fill in the schedule accordingly. The pod system is only for scheduling purposes, as the ACC wants to ditch the division format altogether ... so have the top two teams play for the conference title. With the upcoming expanded playoff, the ACC could look to get two or three (or more) teams into the playoff this way. 

Again, this is a far-fetched idea ... but I can tell you right now that the powers that be in the ACC have thought about this. There will be growing pains and maybe concessions to be made, but if the ACC wants to have a seat at the New College Football League Presented By State Farm Alliance of MegaConferences, this is the road they need to look to go down. If not, the next decade will be the one where the ACC is looking like the current Big 12. 

What To Look Forward To: 2015-16 Tar Heels

The entire starting unit should be back for another crack at a Final
Four run in 2015-16.

Mighty Wisconsin ends the North Carolina Tar Heels season in the Sweet 16.  Better than the past two seasons, but not as good as I felt this team was prior to the start of the year.  Of any Carolina team I've seen in a while, this team certainly was in its place.  Essentially, the Heels beat all the teams it was supposed to beat and all 12 of their losses (with the exception to a loss at Pitt) was to a tournament team.

Carolina was the 2nd best rebounding team and the 2nd best assist team in the nation (and 17th in scoring).

So now we look to next year.  Provided no one leaves (I don't see that happening, but you never cough*Bullock McAdoo*cough know.  Brice Johnson would be the leading candidate to leave, but I don't see that happening, especially with his rather pedestrian tournament showing.

STARTERS

MARCUS PAIGE (Sr):  Paige had a down year to his standards.  Still, he is the heart and soul of this team.  He needs to work on being aggressive.  Now, this isn't all his fault.  He needs to have other guys able to create their own shots and hit perimeter shots to help space the floor and keep defenses from solely focusing on him.  If he can have a healthy season, we could see Paige back in the ACC Player Of The Year race.

JUSTIN JACKSON (So):  Jackson had an up-and-down freshman season.  Still, it says a lot that Ol' Roy stuck with him the entire season.  It paid off.  Over the final few weeks of the season, Jackson found his three-point shot and showed a lot more aggressive play.  He still gets lost out there at times, but his little floater should be one of the Heels' go to moves next season.

J.P. TOKOTO (Sr):  Tokoto is one of the most frustrating players.  His defense is really good and he is one of the best passers on the team.  His ability to play point forwards allows Paige to move without the ball.  That's a big deal.  But Tokoto is known for some bone-headed plays.  He'll throw balls away, take bad shots and take dumb fouls.  If he can shore that up, he'll be one of the most important cogs in a possible Final Four run next year.

BRICE JOHNSON (Sr):  Johnson also frustrates, but in a different manner.  He's so talented but sometimes we just don't know he's on the floor.  Some games he looks unstoppable.  He's got an array of ways to get off his shot and he can receive the ball and get it into shooting position faster than anyone in Chapel Hill since Antawn Jamison.  One thing he really needs to work on is his fouling.  He reaches in way to much and doesn't move his feet well on defense.  Essentially, he cheats defensively and it puts him in foul trouble.  He fouled out against Arkansas in the 3rd round and was in foul trouble all game against Wisconsin.  When he gets into a rhythm, he's tough.  But he can't do so when he's not on the floor.  Also, like Paige, he needs to be more aggressive offensively all game long.

KENNEDY MEEKS (Jr):  Meeks had health issues in the postseason (flu, knee sprain) which limited his effectiveness.  He, like Johnson, also has a tendency to foul a lot.  Meeks was a beast at times during the season and then looked ... meek ... at others.  He's an under the rim kind of player, and I'd love to see him be able to get more like Sean May or Tyler Hansbrough where they became decent mid-range shooters.  Also, it seems as if Meeks has a good game, Johnson doesn't.  They need to figure a way to make that work better and if Meeks had a more consistent jumper like Johnson does, it would do a world of good.

2015 ACC Tournament Preview

TEAM TO BEAT: Virginia. The Cavaliers won the regular season title for the 2nd straight season and are defending ACC tournament champs.  They lost two games all season long: a magical comeback by Duke and a close regular season finale at Louisville.  

TEAM THAT WILL WIN THE TOURNAMENT: Duke. I say this nearly every year because Duke and Coach K value this tournament more than anyone.  They are playing well right now and did beat UVa in their only meeting.  My only concern is that the Blue Devils have little depth and that could hurt them at winning three games in three days.

TEAM TO WATCH FOR (LESS THAN A NO. 3 SEED): Louisville. The Cards have had a good history at winning conference tournaments and this is their first ACC affair.  They'll most likely get UNC first and then probably a Virginia team that just beat.  Their style of play is tough to prepare for with little preparation.  

YOUR CINDERELLA: Wake Forest. The Deacs aren't as bad as their record indicates as they have played many tight games.  With no one scared of them, they could bite a big name team.  

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE: Duke, North Carolina, NC State and Wake Forest. This marks the last of the old ACC where most of the tournaments are held in either Greensboro or Charlotte.  Next year they move up to Brooklyn and the tournament moves around quite a bit.  So that advantage of the Big Four (who made up half the conference for nearly the first 40 years of the league will be gone.  Better take advantage.

MUST WATCH GAME: NC State vs Pittsburgh. State has shown they can beat the best ... but they've shown they can lose to anyone.  Pitt needs to make a run to get into the tournament and popping State would be a great first step.

MUST WATCH (POTENTIAL) QUARTERFINAL GAME: Louisville vs North Carolina. The first time these two met in the season, Marcus Paige topped off a huge UNC comeback with a game winning layup.  The second time they played, Louisville came back from 18 points down to send the game into overtime where they spanked the Heels.  A third game would be welcome.

What If The Conference Tournament Champion Earned The Only Bid?

Over 40 years ago, an epic ACC tournament helped change
the NCAA tournament.  What if the rules went back
to include just one team per league?

It will never happen ... but a long time ago it did.  It is an interesting question and it is actually a fair way to do things.  So here is the question:

What if the champion of each conference tournament earned the lone bid?

Up until 1975, only one team could represent each conference in the NCAA tournament.  For a variety of reasons it was changed and the tournament has been pretty darn good because of it.  But what if it magically went back to just one team per conference?

Well, there are 32 conferences so the tournament would easily be 32 teams.  We could cut down the number of venues hosting games as we could have four sites hosting first round games (which are the "round of 32 games" now) where games are played on consecutive days at those sites.  Then we'd move to the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds the next weekend and then the Final Four per usual.

There would be no bubble.  No argument about who gets in.  The lone argument would be about seeding since the bracket would still be constructed.

Think how awesome these conference tournaments would get?  We watch these smaller conferences battle as they know the champ is the only team that gets to make the tournament.  Imagine if the bigger conferences did the same.  Think how big the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 tournaments would be.  Imagine the SEC tournament where one of those teams could knock off Kentucky and end their title hopes.  Again, that's how it used to be.

Think about the ACC tournament, which has two projected No. 1 seeds competing.  That means only Duke or Virginia would get into the NCAAs ... not both.  It would also mean ranked teams like Louisville, Notre Dame and North Carolina would miss out.  Imagine the Big Ten tournament, which is projected to get 7 or 8 teams in the tournament.

The emotions.  It would be quite a week, indeed.

Tar Heels Fan's Guide To Hating Your ACC Brethren

Everyone has their own hatred for other teams for whatever reason.  Even among fans of the same team, there are some teams you may hate more than I.  Maybe because of age (as a 40 yr old, I remember the rabid UNC-State rivalry), of proximity (I now live in Kentucky so the UNC-Kentucky games have a bit more smack talk involved) or just general taste in opponents.

But, as a Tar Heel fan, here is the order of the ACC teams in terms of hoops hate.

14-VIRGINIA TECH:  Honestly, does any UNC fan hate the Hokies yet?  To Heels hoops fans, we tend to forget the Hokies are even in the conference (UNC leads series 65-13).

13-BOSTON COLLEGE:  The Eagles used to be a lot higher on this list.  When they first came into the league, they (more than Va Tech or Miami) brought the bruising Big East style with them.  Jared Dudley and crew came into the league wanting to push around the status quo of UNC and Duke.  Since those mid-2000s, the Eagles haven't really been much to deal with and their far away location doesn't lend itself to much fan interaction (UNC leads series 12-5).  

12-NOTRE DAME:  The most hateful thing I can say about the Irish right now is that they didn't try harder to keep Matt Doherty back in the early 2000s (UNC leads series 18-5).

11-MIAMI:  The Hurricanes have been annoying, winning four straight against the Heels.  Not only is the atmosphere down in Coral Gables tough on UNC, they seem to play Carolina well no matter where the game is played (UNC leads series 19-6)

10-LOUISVILLE:  They are the new guy, so I haven't developed too much of a hatred for them yet.  Yet.  However, their two meetings in the Cards first ACC season have been epic and hopefully leads to a nice future to come (UNC leads series 10-4).

9-PITTSBURGH:  A new ACC team, but they've climbed up the ladder a bit.  They beat the Heels in the ACC tournament last year and during the season this year (UNC leads series 8-3).

8-CLEMSON:  Clemson is a longtime nemesis, but UNC has kind of owned them.  Clemson has never won in Chapel Hill (amazing stat).  There was the tense years during Rick Barnes tenure in Clemson which leaps them up the ladder (UNC leads series 129-20)

7-SYRACUSE:  It's easy to hate Jim Boeheim.  He's whiny and he has openly complained about the Orange's move from the Big East to the ACC, even dissing Greensboro as a host to the ACC Tournament.  They are also an excellent program who will battle UNC for conference crowns for a long time (UNC leads series 5-4).  

6-WAKE FOREST:  It is usually tough to "hate" Wake, but anyone who remembers the 1990s knows that it was quite a huge rivalry.  From Rodney Rodgers to Randolph Childress to Tim Duncan to Chris Paul (UNC leads series 157-66).  

5-GEORGIA TECH:  Tech has always been a thorn in Heels sides (UNC leads series 65-23).  

4-VIRGINIA:  On the surface, the Cavs-Heels rivalry doesn't seem that big.  But these are two old schools who are closer in proximity than you'd think that have played for a long, long time (UNC leads series 128-52).  

3-FLORIDA STATE:  For whatever reason, FSU scares me each season.  When they come up on the schedule, I get nervous.  Even the game last week was quite a nailbiter even though the Noles are a bit down this year.  They area always tough, yet athletic.  Well coached.  They also introduced the term "wine and cheese crowd" to the world (UNC leads series 45-12).  

2-NC STATE:  As a 40-yr old, I remember when UNC-State was a more rabid rivalry than the one with Duke.  State hates UNC.  Hates the Heels.  While we Heels fans hate State, the glamour of the Duke rivalry has made the one with the Pack less known.  But it is a big one (UNC leads series 151-77).  

1-DUKE:  Duh.  The biggest rivalry in college basketball and one of the best in all of sports (UNC leads series 133-106).

Maybe a New ACC Hoops Schedule As Well?

Yesterday, I took a look at possibly realigning the ACC football schedule to make it a bit tighter and teams would face each other more frequently.  Today, let's look at the basketball schedule.

The two big differences between taking on the basketball and football schedules is (a) Notre Dame adds a 15th member to hoops that they aren't a full time member in football, (b) right now, every ACC hoops member faces each other and (c) it really isn't a dire issue.

But let's have some fun.

Right now, the ACC's schedule is 18 games long.  Each ACC member has two schools they face twice each and every year (for a reference, UNC's two yearly rivals are NC State and Duke), then they face two other schools twice (which rotates every six years) and then five at home and five away.

There really isn't anything wrong with that at all.  But why not just simplify it?  Instead of rotating those two home-and-home games to just two more natural rivals?  Therefore you play four teams twice each year and the other ten teams you just bounce home and away each year.  I like that better.

I like it since those long-time ACC schools (and those former Big East schools) get to face off a bit more and it makes it easier for fans to understand the schedule.

So who would be the rivals?   Below is my attempt to match them up.  The first two teams on everyone's line are their rivals right now and the italicized names are the ones I've added.

Should The ACC's Football Divisions "Split" Up?

With the news that Wake Forest and North Carolina have agreed to a non-conference football series, there has been a lot of discussion about the scheduling of the ACC schedule.  The main issue is that you could play at one school just once over a 12-year period, which is what UNC and Wake were facing with the new 14-team format and the side deal with Notre Dame.

Should the ACC do something different with their division format?  Should they dump divisions altogether?  Should they go to a 9-game season?  Let's look.

NINE GAME CONFERENCE SEASON

I'm going to shoot this down.  I don't like this and I don't think a lot of the schools like this.  Maybe some do, but the league as a whole isn't interested in it.  Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Louisville already have a built in rivalry game with an SEC opponent.  Also, each school plays Notre Dame once in a three year stretch.  So if you are Florida State, you could have a 10-game schedule already lined up.  That leaves little room to schedule another game against a quality opponent and a game against a lower level FBS school or a FCS school.  I just don't think this will happen without a big fight.

UNC-Wake Show How Mega Conference Can Be Too Big

UNC-Wake Forest may not be a well known national
rivalry, but it is very important to the schools
involved.  

I like the fact that Syracuse, Notre Dame and Louisville are now in the ACC.  I like the fact that the ACC was proactive in the conference realignment game.  However, I'm not a fan of the mega-conferences and the wreckage they've left behind.

This is pointed out in the fact that UNC and Wake Forest have agreed to play a non-conference series at the end of the decade.  UNC and Wake Forest have played each other pretty much annually for 125 years and are just miles apart in the state of North Carolina.  However, they are placed in separate divisions in the ACC and will have to wait until 2022 to play again after their scheduled game this coming season.

Neither school likes that.

So they scheduled this "non-conference" series in 2019 and 2021.  It won't count in the standings, however, but it will be a game against a Power 5 opponent and one the schools want to see and players want to play.

No Gripes Whatsoever With ACC Awards

Anytime awards are handed out, controversy is nearby. This guy didn't deserve it. That guy was better. East Coast Bias. Blah blah blah!

Well, I really have no gripes with the ACC's awards. None.

UNC's Ty Lawson was the Player of the Year in the conference. Not only did he play like a POY, but his team needs him to do so every night. Just ask Duke and Florida State about how valuable he is.

The All-ACC team was pretty good, too. Lawson is joined by fellow Tar Heel (and fellow POY winner) Tyler Hansbrough, Florida State's Toney Douglas, Duke's Gerald Henderson and Miami's Jack McClinton on the first team. Those were the five best players this season, which is saying something in this conference. When you can make a second team of Wake's Jeff Teague, Clemson's Trevor Booker, BC's Tyrese Rice, Duke's Kyle Singler and Maryland's Greivis Vasquez ... well, you have a very deep conference.

FSU's Leonard Hamilton won the Coach of the Year award and deservedly so. His Noles weren't expected to do squat this year but they ended up fourth in the highly competitive ACC. He should be finally leading his team into the NCAAs next week. I could make a case for Boston College' Al Skinner, but I really can't argue with Hamilton.

My Tough Experience Watching UNC-Duke

As a die-hard Tar Heels fan, it goes without saying that the two games against Duke get my attention more than any other game. Right at January 1st (when my new batch of vacation days come in), I put in for the first Duke-UNC game which usually takes place in the first week or two in February. I'm usually already off on the Sunday in which the regular season finale takes place.

That was today. As I sat on my couch to watch the game, visions of another ACC regular season championship, the conference tournament's top seed and a possible No. 1 ranking were filling my head. Oh, it was also the final time Tyler Hansbrough will play at the Dean Dome. This was a big game.

So it was great to sit here just outside of Cincinnati where a storm was coming. So for the first half of the UNC-Duke game, my local CBS affiliate (Channel 12) decided it needs to keep interrupting the game to show me where the storm would be heading. Mind you, they didn't cut in during commercials or during the halftime show where Seth Davis said Virginia Tech and Northwestern would make the dance (seriously, why is this idiot on TV?).

The second half ... things changed. Instead of breaking into the game periodically to give me updates, Channel 12 decides to go full blast with the weather report while keeping my game up in a window in the bottom right corner. I could see the game as if I was watching a 9" screen but could hear nothing. And forget trying to read any graphics they were posting.

Still, the Heels won a good game, 79-71, and became ACC champs. That storm that was supposed to hit never materialized in my neighborhood. A few gusts of wind and a two-minute rain shower was all we got.

Another Reason Why the RPI Sucks ...

I hate the RPI. Well, let me rephrase that. I hate how many people use the RPI as a crutch. Yes, it is a decent tool but it does has its flaws. Like how can Duke lose to Clemson by 27 points and stay as the No. 1 ranked team in the RPI?

Well, here is another error that doesn't seem like that much but it happens all the time and could affect who gets into the tournament.

From: SI.com

The latest example of RPI comedy, unless you're a fan of Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7; RPI: 59; SOS: 37): The Hokies cost themselves two RPI spots by winning the "wrong" game this week. Losing at Clemson and beating Duke at home would have been worth an extra .0015 in raw RPI points. But since they won on the road and lost at home, each game counted as 1.4 instead of 0.6, which works against the Hokies.

Now doesn't that seem nice?

Can the ACC Really Get Eight Teams In?

The ACC has a shot at getting eight teams in the upcoming ACC tournament (nine teams are actually in the hunt). A lot would have to happen for this dream to come true but it is very possible.

North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest and Florida State are pretty much locks to get in. UNC is fighting for a No. 1 seed while Clemson, Duke and Wake are fighting to get into close "pods". At least one of these teams will not get a first round bye in the ACC tournament.

This means that Boston College, Maryland, Miami and Virginia Tech are left fighting for those remaining at-large bids.

VIRGINIA TECH (17-11): Tech has a golden opportunity to show the selection committee what they are made of. The Hokies host No. 2 North Carolina on Wednesday before visiting Florida State this weekend. A win against the Heels would be their signature victory. That's saying something as Va Tech has won on the road against Clemson and Wake Forest. They also have wins over fellow bubble teams Miami and Boston College.

MIAMI (16-10): The Canes have had a very inconsistent season. They have no bad losses and have wins over Kentucky (fellow bubble team), FSU, Wake Forest and twice against Boston College. They have two winnable games (Ga Tech, NC State) to secure an 8-8 conference season. That means they are a win or two in the ACC tournament from getting into the dance.

MARYLAND (18-10): The Terps are tough to figure out. In this stretch run, they keep alternating wins and losses. The thing is that none of their conference losses are that bad (at UNC, at Clemson, Duke twice, at Miami, at Florida State, Boston College). The Terps have a huge game against Wake Forest coming up this week.

BOSTON COLLEGE (20-9): Of these four bubble teams, BC has the most going for it. Namely, wins over both Duke and North Carolina (the latter on the road). They've also beaten Florida State. The problem is that they followed up that win over UNC with a loss to Harvard. They are 8-6 in ACC play with NC State and Ga Tech coming up. If they get to 10 conference wins, it would be impossible for the committee to deny the Eagles.

A Look Ahead to the 2009-2010 Tar Heels

I know that March just arrived and that the most important part of the North Carolina Tar Heels season is approaching. Senior night against Duke, ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament all loom. This team was assembled for one purpose: Win the whole thing!

Still, I wanna step back and look at what this team could look like next year. This year has that same feel of 2005 when the Heels had a team who had a great shot at winning the title.

GOODBYE! In college sports, there is always turnover due to graduation and early entrants into the pro draft. This Heels team will be no different. Tyler Hansbrough will take his wares to the NBA after one of the most decorated careers in college basketball. Fellow seniors Danny Green and Bobby Frasor will also graduate and move on in their careers.

Ty Lawson will most likely bolt for the NBA Draft. He would have been a first round pick last year and may have moved up a little in this year's class. The interesting case is Wayne Ellington. Ellington, like Lawson and Green, put his name in the '08 draft pool only to come back to school. While Lawson and Green seemed to have improved their draft statuses, Ellington has not. Several draftniks think that he will go undrafted if he enters the '09 draft. So maybe he stays on for another season at Carolina.

So what will this 2009-2010 team look like?

POINT GUARD: Dexter Strickland. This is an interesting battle. Strickland is wowing people and could have the inside track to a starting spot. However, Larry Drew II has run Roy Williams' system and will be the experienced guy going in. Still, I think Strickland will get the nod.

SHOOTING GUARD: Wayne Ellington. Again, this goes with the assumption that Ellington comes back for his senior season. If he does, I think that's a huge boost for this team. If he isn't back, then fifth-year senior Marcus Ginyard will most likely get the nod. Freshman Leslie McDonald should get into the rotation pretty quickly.

SMALL FORWARD: John Henson. This is very interesting. While Henson has the size to play the power positions, his true calling may be at small forward. He is in the mold of a Kevin Durant with his athleticism and range. Henson is so talented that it will be tough for Ol' Roy to keep him out of the lineup. Still, he could do so (ala Marvin Williams), start Ginyard and make Henson the sixth man. Starting Henson would give the Heels an unbelievably big front line (you'll see in a sec). The status of Will Graves is unknown (he is currently suspended) but if he returns, he gives the Heels another experienced player.

POWER FORWARD: Deon Thompson. It will be very interesting to see how Thompson responds to not being around Hansbrough. I tend to think Thompson will take the Scott Williams route of finally becoming "da man" in his senior season. He is the fifth guy on this year's team but may be the first option next year. Backing him up are the twins: David and Travis Wear. Both are bangers in the paint and smart players. They may not get a lot of minutes next year as this front line is so talented.

CENTER: Ed Davis. Many people feel that Davis is the best NBA prospect on the current Carolina team. Davis is a heady shotblocker and rebounder and is showing some scoring touch at times. I think he takes the reigns of a strong recent lineage of Tar Heel centers (Brandon Haywood to Sean May to Tyler Hansbrough). Backing Davis up will be those Wear twins, Thompson and Tyler Zeller. Zeller isn't a center by nature but is the tallest guy on the team and will get some minutes there.

As you can see, there is a lot of talent on next year's team and Roy Williams will have a slew of options to choose. He can go with that big front line of Henson-Thompson-Davis. Or go with the quick front line of Ginyard-Henson-Zeller.

The two biggest problems go hand-in-hand. Point guard play and experience. Only Ellington (again, that's assuming he's back) has been a big time performer at this level before. Thompson has a lot of experience but this will be the first time he will be the focus in the paint. Ginyard is a glue guy but he hasn't been healthy in a long time. Zeller, Davis and Drew are getting spot duty right now and not asked to do too much. That top-rated class of Henson, Strickland, Wear, Wear and McDonald are as talented as you can get ... but they are still freshman.

So can Roy feel comfortable about his point guards being so young? Drew and Strickland are talented but neither are ready to fully run Williams' offense.

All I know is that the 2009-2010 won't have the kinds of pressure the past three Heels teams have had. It has been win-it-all or fail in the last couple of years. Next year will have its own share of expectations but it will have that feel of 2005-2006 when a stripped down Heels team shocked everyone by being really good.

Tar Heels Choke Away Shot at No. 1 Ranking

I am angry that my beloved Tar Heels decided it was time to choke away a 16-point lead, ending their 10-game winning streak and forking over a shot at the No. 1 ranking.

But, whatever. It happens. Am I bent? Sure. But we lost to a rabid Maryland team that was led by the brilliant Greivis Vasquez.

This does take a lot of the shine off the Heels this season, but it doesn't make me think that this team cannot win the NCAA Tournament. I remember the 2005 team lost to Santa Clara and a loss to Georgia Tech team in the ACC Tournament. They also choked away a game at Duke, midseason. That team, like this team, lost at Wake Forest. That team also won a championship.

Same sort of thing in 1993. The Heels again lost to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets during the ACC Tournament (that was in the title game, which was in Charlotte). That Heels team lost at Wake Forest (they were destroyed, 88-62) and at Duke (by 14) in back-to-back games. That Heels team would go on to win a championship.

In 1982, the Heels only lost twice. Once at powerful Virginia. The other was ... you guessed it ... to Wake Forest. They won a title.

The 1957 team didn't lose a game all season long.

Am I rationalizing? You betcha! But sometimes you have to get a little perspective of what you've seen.

Sportz 'This Week In the ACC'

Alright, it is time for the nitty gritty. The ACC is reaching its second half and there is a lot on the line. North Carolina fights to get back atop the polls; Duke and Wake are trying to stop their reeling; Florida State and Virginia Tech are coming up; and Clemson is starting to look scary.

So let's take our weekly look at the ACC.

TEAM OF THE WEEK: NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels have now won eight in a row after losing their first two conference games. Right now, they are in first place in the standings and are coming off a huge win at Duke.

DISAPPOINTING TEAM OF THE WEEK: WAKE FOREST. The Deacons are sliding a bit after their huge win over North Carolina. Losses to Georgia Tech and NC State are ridiculous for a team that was once No. 1.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: TY LAWSON, UNC. It was Lawson's effort that brought a win over Duke back to Chapel Hill. He could not be stopped by the ACC's best defensive team.

UPCOMING GAMES THIS WEEKEND: NC State at Georgia Tech, Florida State at Wake Forest, Virginia Tech at Maryland, Clemson at Virginia, Duke at Boston College, North Carolina at Miami.

Some huge games coming up. Florida State can really make a statement if they can go into Winston-Salem and beat a reeling Wake Forest team. Same idea can go to Wake, as a win over the Noles would bring back some of their swagger.

Duke has lost 3 of 5 and now heads up to Boston College to face a rabid Eagles squad (that has already beaten UNC). This is the kind of game that should show Duke's mental state. If they come out flat, then this will probably be just another season that fades away.

The game of the weekend is in Coral Gables as the Heels and Canes renew acquaintances. Miami gave Carolina all it could handle in Chapel Hill before Wayne Ellington started nailing threes.

Clemson and Virginia Tech are facing trap games on the road.

NEXT WEEK: Maryland at Clemson, Miami at Florida State, Georgia Tech at Wake Forest, NC State at North Carolina, Virginia Tech at Virginia, Duke at St John's.

Three in-state matchups, Duke heading to their home away from home, and Wake Forest trying to avenge a bad loss.

UNC-Duke: I Hate to Say 'I Told You So' ... But I Did

Last night, I wrote this about the UNC-Duke game:

They rank No. 3 and No. 4 (or No. 5 in the coaches poll) which means you have two elite teams with National Championships dancing in their heads. However, these two couldn't be any different. Duke can't guard Tyler Hansbrough or Ty Lawson. UNC can't guard Kyle Singler or Gerald Henderson. The Heels should dominate on the glass while Duke will hit more than its fair share of threes.

What games like this come down to is poise. Over time, the loser of this game tends to lose poise during a stretch in the game. Last year in Chapel Hill, Carolina lost poise when Duke was hitting everything they threw up. In Durham, Duke lost poise at the end of the game when the outcome was on the line. It happens when the bright lights are shining on 18 to 23 year olds.

Amazing that it did come out that way. Duke couldn't guard Tyler Hansbrough or Ty Lawson and Carolina couldn't guard Singler or Henderson. Lawson, Singler and Henderson were able to go where they want and get the shots they wanted. Well, for at least a half.

Singler and especially Henderson were on fire in the first half but non-factors in the second. Lawson was no where in the first half but dumped 21 points in the second half.

As for poise ... it was very evident. North Carolina went on a 43-19 run in the second half. During that run, Duke panicked. They took bad shots (Henderson's baseline fade away comes to mind), failed to run their offense and turned the ball over. They also allowed Lawson to keep getting to the rack. This will be my lasting memory of this game. The fact that UNC punched Duke in the mouth (29-18 opening run), Duke responded (32-12 run) and then the Heels dominated (46-21). Duke just couldn't respond; they couldn't punch back.

That's basketball ... or sports, really.

So congrats to the Heels and their amazing senior class. Danny Green and Tyler Hansbrough have both won in all four visits to Cameron Indoor Stadium (fellow senior Bobby Frasor didn't play in last year's game).

Oh Yeah, UNC-Duke Is Tonight

As a diehard Carolina fan, today is like a National holiday to me. I even have the day off of work. When people say "circle this date on your calendar" -- I do!

What is funny is that I live in Kentucky now and know only one Duke fan. Far from the thousands of Dookies I knew or ran into when I lived in Charlotte. So I love it when people ask me about how the game will turn out.

You can't answer that.

Part of a great rivalry is that whole "throw the records out the window" stuff. I think that is a bunch of crap because when UNC stunk and Duke was elite, the Blue Devils dominated the Heels. The same thing happened in the early 1980s when Coach K was building back up Duke's program and guys like James Worthy and Michael Jordan were dominating the Devils.

Aside from those moments, however, it is amazing how many of these games are so evenly matched ... even if they really aren't.

They rank No. 3 and No. 4 (or No. 5 in the coaches poll) which means you have two elite teams with National Championships dancing in their heads. However, these two couldn't be any different. Duke can't guard Tyler Hansbrough or Ty Lawson. UNC can't guard Kyle Singler or Gerald Henderson. The Heels should dominate on the glass while Duke will hit more than its fair share of threes.

What games like this come down to is poise. Over time, the loser of this game tends to lose poise during a stretch in the game. Last year in Chapel Hill, Carolina lost poise when Duke was hitting everything they threw up. In Durham, Duke lost poise at the end of the game when the outcome was on the line. It happens when the bright lights are shining on 18 to 23 year olds.

Regardless, it should be a great game. Two Hall of Fame coaches bringing their elite programs into one of the greatest venues to watch a sporting event with a lot riding on the outcome.

That makes a great rivalry.

State Of the ACC Address (Midseason Edition)

The greatest rivalry in college basketball ... and maybe all of sports ... resumes tomorrow. The UNC-Duke game ceremoniously marks the midseason for the ACC season. Everyone has played at least eight games and the standings seem to be settling.

TEAM TO BEAT: NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels have won 7 straight after spotting the rest of the league their 0-2 start. Their offense has been clicking again while their defense has gotten just a little bit better. Still, there is some gleam gone from their pre-conference swagger as injuries have left the team a bit exposed.

IF NOT THEM, THEN: DUKE. Believe it or not, but the Blue Devils are actually deeper than the Tar Heels. Their defense is still dominating ... at times. The key will be their ability to defend and score in the paint. They can get away with this against some ACC teams, but Clemson and Wake Forest exposed this, just as UNC may do tomorrow.

TEAM WHO COULD RISE: Virginia Tech. Va Tech is laying in the weeds at 5-3. They have Georgia Tech, at Maryland, at Virginia and Florida State coming up. Very winnable games. They will need to win most if not all of those to get to 9-3 or 8-4. Their closing schedule? At Clemson, UNC, Duke and at Florida State. Yikes!

TEAM WHO COULD FALL: FLORIDA STATE. The Noles have finally appeared in the rankings, but will it last? They did win at Clemson but don't really have any other impressive conference wins. Coming up, they will have a stretch at Wake Forest, Miami, at Virginia Tech, at Boston College, Clemson, at Duke and Virginia Tech.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR: TYLER HANSBROUGH. This is a tough one. Hansbrough is just doing what he always does. He has a sizeable lead in the scoring race and will be chasing down J.J. Redick's ACC scoring mark in a month. Wake's Jeff Teague has a good shot at taking the award away from Psycho T, but it may come down to whose team wins the regular season title.

COACH OF THE YEAR: AL SKINNER. There are a lot of great candidates for this. Roy Williams has had to deal with injuries and expectations at North Carolina; Dino Guadio has taken a young Deacons team to a No. 1 ranking; Leonard Hamilton has his Noles ranked; Oliver Purnell lost some key guys off of last year's team but has Clemson still in the thick of things. But Al Skinner has taken a Boston College team that was picked to finish dead last in the ACC and turned them into a possible NCAA Tournament team. I think that he may need to get them in to secure this award, but what he has done already is amazing. They won at North Carolina and have beaten Va Tech. They will get some publicized run soon as they will face Clemson, Duke and Miami in the next 11 days.

Duke's Greg Paulus Gets Dunked On YET AGAIN!!!!

Three days ago, I wrote about how Duke's Greg Paulus got dunked on by Clemson's Jerai Grant.

Today against Miami, he was dunked on yet again.

It wasn't as bad as some of the others (his didn't have his chin wiped by someone's junk this time). No, but Miami's Dwayne Collins still punched it on Paulus. Again, Paulus thought it was smart to challenge a dunker directly under the basket.

Add this to his greatest hits:

UNC's Danny Green dunks on Paulus
Va Tech's Deron Washington hurdles over Paulus
Paulus flops against VCUTea Bag Paulus

Duke's Greg Paulus Gets Dunked On Again

Here is yet another video of Duke's Greg Paulus getting dunked on. This happened last night as Clemson's Jarai Grant punches it on Paulus (who smartly tries to take a charge while standing under the basket).

This goes near the top of Paulus' greatest hits.

Here are my favorites:
UNC's Danny Green dunks on Paulus
Va Tech's Deron Washington hurdles over Paulus
Paulus flops against VCU
Tea Bag Paulus