Sunday, March 13, 2011

Sportz Assassin's FINAL Bubble Watch - March 13

Okay. I've been doing my whole Sportz' Bubble Watch for a few years now and I think it is time to start back up. With only a few weeks left in the season before conference tournaments, let's see how the bubble looks.

So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. The ones in green are spot on, no doubt locks. The ones in blue are pretty much in, too, though they can't afford to go in a tailspin. The ones in orange are smack dab on the bubble but would be in if the selections were being made today. Every team in red are on the wrong side of the bubble right now and would miss the dance.

I figure there are 18 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 13 conferences that could net multiple bids. So who should be going?

ATLANTIC COAST: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College.
Clemson and Virginia Tech got big wins in the ACC Tournament to earn a bid. Boston College's rough showing in the quarterfinals knocks them out.

BIG EAST: UConn, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette.
Big East's 11 teams in the tournament is insane. But they all deserve to be there. But are any of them a championship team?

BIG TEN: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Penn State.
I think Penn State gets in (ed. note: the Big Ten championship game is currently in progress) regardless of what happens today. Michigan and Illinois scoot in as well.

BIG XII: Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Colorado, Baylor, Oklahoma State.
Colorado is one of those last four in and will most likely sweat out Selection Sunday. Everybody else is pretty much set.

PAC-10: Washington, Arizona, UCLA, USC, Washington State.
I don't think USC makes it. I feel that they needed to get to the Pac-10 championship game to at least have a shot at the NCAAs. Washington State just hasn't done enough.

SEC: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia.
Alabama, to me, is THE ultimate bubble team. I have them in instead of USC, but many have them out. Georgia lost to Bama in the SEC tournament which eliminates them.

MOUNTAIN WEST: San Diego State, BYU,
UNLV, New Mexico.
Really no surprises here. SDSU and BYU will be big time seeds while UNLV is securely in.

A-10: Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Richmond didn't mess around and claimed a bid for themselves. That win means one less spot for another bubble team

COLONIAL: Old Dominion, George Mason, VCU.
C-USA: Memphis, UAB, UTEP.
MVC: Indiana State, Missouri State.
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Memphis' Conference USA championship pops their bubble in a good way. Really, in all of these schools, only UAB and Missouri State need to sweat. St. Mary's may be worried as well. I only think St. Mary's gets in out of that group ... though their resume is a bit suspect.

America East (Boston),
Atlantic Sun (Belmont),
Big Sky (No Colorado),
Big South (UNC-Ashville),
Big West (UC-Santa Barbara),
Horizon (Butler),
Ivy (Princeton),
MAAC (St Peter's),
MAC (Akron),
MEAC (Hampton),
Northeast (Long Island),
Ohio Valley (Morehead State),
Patriot (Bucknell),
Southern (Wofford),
Southland (Tx-San Antonio),
SWAC (Alabama State),
Summit (Oakland),
Sun Belt (Ark-Little Rock)
WAC (Utah State)

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