2016 Sportz' Bubble Watch: March 12th

With many conference tournaments ending today while others having their semifinals, it is time to merge the bubble into one pile.  First, let's take a look at who are in right now.  The locks, the looking goods and the one-bid leagues (*-denotes "looking good"):

LOCKS/LOOKING GOOD (38)

ACC:  North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, Notre Dame, Duke
BIG EAST:  Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence*, Butler*
BIG TEN:  Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin
BIG 12:  Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech*
PAC 12: Oregon, Arizona, Utah, California, Colorado, USC*, Oregon State*
SEC:  Texas A&M, Kentucky
AMERICAN: Cincinnati*, UConn*
ATLANTIC 10:  Dayton, St. Joseph's, VCU*
MISSOURI VALLEY: Wichita State*

ONE BID LEAGUES (24):

IVY: Yale
OHIO VALLEY: Austin Peay
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG SOUTH: UNC-Asheville
COLONIAL: UNC-Wilmington
MISSOURI VALLEY: Northern IowaWCC: GonzagaMAAC:  Iona
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
HORIZON: Green Bay
NORTHEAST: Farleigh Dickenson
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
PATRIOT: Holy Cross
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG WEST: Hawaii
CONFERENCE USA: MTSU
MAC: Buffalo
MEAC: Hampton
MW: Fresno State
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SWAC: Southern
WAC: Cal St-Bakersfield
SUN BELT: Arkansas Little Rock/Louisiana Monroe

BUBBLE TEAMS (6)

So, the bubble teams.  According to my calculations, there are 7 spots left which is a lot at this late date.

South Carolina (IN):  The Gamecocks were near locks a month ago but their weak non-conference schedule has now mixed with bad losses.  Losing to Georgia in the SEC quarterfinals puts them smack dab on the bubble.  I can see a world where the committee passes on South Carolina.  Still, I still see them in.

St. Bonaventure (IN):  St. Bonnie was looking good a week ago, but losing to Davidson in the A-10 tournament really stings.  With teams like Michigan and LSU still playing ... plus the possibility of San Diego State losing the MW final ... the Bonnies will be a bit nervous tomorrow.

Pittsburgh (IN): Looking around these bubble teams, Pitt has better wins than most.  But they've also had some puzzling losses.  Pitt looked great a few weeks ago, but they've spiraled a bit of late with some large losing margins.

Temple (IN):  Temple won the AAC regular season and swept the regular season series with UConn and Cincinnati ... who are both in on my board.  By that, plus a non-con slate that included Nova, UNC, Utah and Wisconsin ... uh, where they lost to all of them ... should slide them in.

St. Mary's (IN):  They swept Gonzaga and made the WCC final where they lost to the Zags.  This is a very good team that should eye test fine for the tournament.  However, are their numbers good enough?  This is a classic case of giving a mid-major a chance over a middling Power 5 team.

Monmouth (IN):  Perfect example here.  They beat UCLA, USC, Notre Dame and Georgetown.  Sure, the Bruins and Hoyas aren't going to the tournament, but that wasn't Monmouth's fault when they scheduled them.  They've won 13 true road games and played most of their slate away from home.  No offense to anyone below, but do I need to see what Michigan or Florida do against tournament teams or let this fireball in?  Let them play!

Vanderbilt (OUT):  This is the truest bubble team.  Vandy was on cloud nine beating Kentucky a few weeks back. Some bad losses and being ousted by Tennessee in their first SEC tournament game have them smack dab on the bubble.  It wasn't like the SEC was a really good league.  If you look above, you see that this will be an ideology of mid-major versus a middle of the road major.

Michigan (OUT):  The Wolverines got a huge win over top seeded Indiana.  It still doesn't get them in.  The Wolverines gave their all against Purdue but was it enough?  Nope.  Again, I think the NCAA isn't going to put them in.

San Diego State (OUT):  All year, the Aztecs have been the lone Mountain West school who could gain an at large bid.  Many people, like me, felt they had to win the MW tournament to get in.  They lost to Fresno State in the final and it looks like SDSU will sit this tournament out.  If you think the MW is bad, then there is nothing on the Aztecs' resume that jumps out.  They really have beaten no one outside of Cal.  They lost to Grand Canyon and beat San Diego Christian College by 10.  They just don't have it.

Syracuse (OUT):  The Orange are hoping the committee decides to wipe out those nine games that Jim Boeheim was suspended and Syracuse went 4-5.  They would also hope the committee would forget about them closing out the season by losing 5 of their last 6 -- all of them with Boeheim.  The Orange are out!

Florida (OUT):  They just don't look like a tournament team.  I know that's subjective, but they haven't been playing that well and the SEC has looked like the worst of the Power 5 leagues.  Nothing says they deserve to be in ahead of a few of the OUT teams anyway.

Memphis (OUT):  Not really a bubble team, but if they beat UConn in the American Conference final, they will get an automatic bid and steal a spot from one of these bubble teams.

2016 Sportz' Bubble Watch: March 11th

Okay. I've been doing my whole Sportz' Bubble Watch for a few years now and I think it is time to start back up. With only a few weeks left in the season before conference tournaments, let's see how the bubble looks.

So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. Locks are teams that I think are in no matter what.  Looking good are teams that are in, barring a total collapse.  I split the bubble teams either In or Out; self explanatory.  Also there's a spot for teams that need a miracle.  No more losses and maybe a deep conference tournament run.

I figure there are 21 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 11 conferences that could net multiple bids. So who should be going?


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
LOCKS:  Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Miami, Notre Dame
LOOKING GOOD:  Pittsburgh
BUBBLE IN:  
BUBBLE OUT:  Syracuse
MIRACLE:  

The ACC is virtually done.  Pitt beat Cuse and hung with UNC for a while which should put them in.  Syracuse is really on the bubble.  Their record doesn't really warrant a bid (counting the conference tournament, the Orange were 9-10 in ACC play) and I think Boeheim's absence should not be brushed aside since it was a penalty against the program.  Outside the bubble?  Well the story is if North Carolina or Virginia can nab No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.  Right now they both look like it, however one of these teams (if not both) will lose in the next two days.

BIG EAST

LOCKS:  Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall
LOOKING GOOD:  Providence
BUBBLE IN:  Butler
BUBBLE OUT:   
MIRACLE:  

Providence's win over Butler pushed them comfortably in.  Not only did they get a win over a fellow bubble team, they'll get to play Villanova which looks good on their resume, win or lose.  Butler hasn't been blazing heading into the tournament, but they'll be in the field.  Outside the bubble?  Villanova is on pace for a No. 1 seed ... but could Xavier be in the running if they topple the Wildcats in the Big East final?

BIG TEN

LOCKS:  Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin
LOOKING GOOD:  
BUBBLE IN:  
BUBBLE OUT:  Michigan, Ohio State
MIRACLE:  

Michigan and Ohio State are still alive in the Big Ten tournament after very close wins.  Their reward is facing Indiana and Michigan State, respectively.  A win there would be huge for either team and could push Michigan off the bubble and into the field.  Ohio State may yet still need some help, though, but it would be a big chip towards their ticket.  Especially since the Buckeyes have now have played Sparty three times in less than two weeks.  Outside the bubble?  Wow, has Iowa crashed over the last several weeks.  And Wisconsin losing to Nebraska in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tournament?  Not a good look.

BIG 12 CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor
LOOKING GOOD: 
BUBBLE IN:  Texas Tech
BUBBLE OUT:  
MIRACLE: 

You know, I haven't been as high on Texas Tech as others have been. They lost to lowly TCU in the first round of the Big 12 tournament.  Not a good look.  Tech is getting in off of three things.  One, that they are in the ultra competitive Big 12.  Two, their strength of schedule which is helped by being in that league.  Three, that run they had in February when they beat Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor.  But they've lost 3 of 4 and while two of those were against Kansas and West Virginia, the Mountaineers trounced them.  They also had a streak where they lost 7 of 8 games.  Again, they are getting in but I'm not as all-in on them as others. Outside the bubble?  Kansas is trending toward the overall No. 1 seed.  

PAC-12 CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  Oregon, Arizona, Utah, California, Colorado
LOOKING GOOD:  USC
BUBBLE IN:  Oregon State
BUBBLE OUT:  
MIRACLE:  

The Pac-12 is filled with inflated RPIs and all of that, but they could have 7 teams in the tournament.  Six are in after USC's beating of UCLA and close loss to Utah.  The bubbler here is Oregon State whose resume has that great RPI and SOS and no bad losses.  The Beaver have done enough to warrant a spot.  Outside the bubble?  Well, Oregon is trying to hold onto a No. 2 seed and could maybe sneak into a top seed if some bad things happen to some ACC and Big Ten teams today.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  Kentucky, Texas A&M
LOOKING GOOD:  South Carolina
IN BUBBLE:  Vanderbilt
OUT BUBBLE:  Florida 
MIRACLE:  LSU

Ugh, the SEC has done itself no favors.  South Carolina gets Georgia in the SEC quarterfinals and could really use the win.  A loss probably won't knock them out, it could kill their seeding.  Now, what about a fourth team?  Vandy looked like a good bet but then go out and lose to Tennessee in their hometown.  Florida got a big win over Arkansas and now faces top-seeded Texas A&M.  An opportunity for a huge win here.  Do that and they could make a title game appearance and secure an NCAA bid.  LSU kind of got cheated.  Sure, playing Tennessee is much easier than Vanderbilt, but the Tigers then miss out on a chance to beat a good team.  Really, they need to win the whole thing.  Outside the bubble? The best they could hope for any team to get is a No. 3 seed and that's if Kentucky wins this tournament. 

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  
LOOKING GOOD:  
IN BUBBLE:  Cincinnati, Temple
OUT BUBBLE:  UConn, Tulsa, Houston
MIRACLE: 

Quickly, the UConn-Cincy game is huge.  A UConn loss may end their hopes and secure Cincy's bid.  A UConn win puts both of them in sheer limbo.  Who knows?  I still like Cincinnati in and UConn could be close.  Temple just can't lose to USF or I think they could be done.  Sure winning the AAC regular season has merit, but this isn't a good league.  Houston and Tulsa need to get to the final to even be considered for the bubble.  Outside the bubble?  These could all be 10 or 11 seeds.  Someone has to win this league, but even the champ will be wearing the dark jerseys in the tournament next week.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  
LOOKING GOOD:  
IN BUBBLE:  San Diego State
OUT BUBBLE:  
MIRACLE: 

San Diego State is the only team that could get an at-large bid, but even that is sketchy.  Still, I think anything but a title and the Aztecs are done.

ATLANTIC 10

LOCKS:  Dayton, St. Joseph's
LOOKING GOOD:  
IN BUBBLE:  St. Bonaventure, VCU
OUT BUBBLE:  George Washington
MIRACLE: 

On the bubble, I like VCU's chances a bit more than St. Bonnie.  However, both are in right now and both have chances to boost their resumes.  The Bonnies have a tough game with Davidson today (VCU gets UMass).  Neither can afford a loss right now with so much bubble drama.  GW is still hanging in there right now.  They get St. Joe's and they know that the A-10 has historically had bubble teams go on runs and win conference titles. 

MISSOURI VALLEY, WEST COAST, MAAC

LOCKS:  Northern Iowa, Gonzaga
LOOKING GOOD:  Wichita State
IN BUBBLE:  St. Mary's, Monmouth
OUT BUBBLE:  
MIRACLE:  

Gonzaga and Northern Iowa may have "stolen" bids as St. Mary's and Wichita State could get at-large bids.  While I can never speak for the committee, I would rather see Wichita, St. Mary's and even Monmouth in the field instead of bubble teams from bigger leagues who haven't impressed me.  Still, schools like Valpo, Arkansas Little Rock and UAB probably won't get bids without league titles.  

ONE BID LEAGUES (21):

IVY: Yale
OHIO VALLEY: Austin Peay
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG SOUTH: UNC-Asheville
COLONIAL: UNC-Wilmington
MAAC:  Iona
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
HORIZON: Green Bay
NORTHEAST: Farleigh Dickenson
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
PATRIOT: Holy Cross
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook/Vermont
BIG SKY: (3/12)
BIG WEST: (3/12)
CONFERENCE USA: (3/12)
MAC: (3/12)
MEAC: (3/12)
SOUTHLAND: (3/12)
SWAC: (3/12)
WAC: (3/12)
SUN BELT: (3/13)

Sportz Assassin's Take On Super Bowl 50

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos won Super Bowl 50

Super Bowl 50 ended with the Denver Broncos beating the Carolina Panthers 24-10.  Here are some takes I have about the game:

-What a defense!  If there was ever a defense that carried a team to a title, it was this one.  When you think of great defenses, the '85 Bears or '92 Cowboys or '00 Ravens or '13 Seahawks come to mind ... but in those Super Bowls, the offenses made plays.  This was a bad offensive showing for Denver (more on that later).  But this bunch made Cam Newton look bad.  He couldn't get a rhythm, he never looked comfortable and they did all this without anything exotic.

-That defense gave up just one touchdown to Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Cam Newton in this postseason.

-How bad was Denver's offense?  They were, what, 1-of-13 on third downs?  Peyton Manning's QBR was 9.9. They were the first team to win a Super Bowl with less than 200 yards of offense.

-Still, despite all of that defensive dominance, the Panthers were down 16-10 with the ball at midfield in the 4th quarter.

-The Panthers looked jittery.  Not just the four turnovers but all those penalties.  Carolina fans cannot cry foul as many were pre-snap penalties.  It looked like the moment was too big for them (that and the Broncos had them jumpy).

-Give Peyton Manning credit.  He knew he wasn't the guy who set all those records a few years ago.  He knew his job was to not make mistakes.  To get his offense into their plays and to not leave that defense hanging.  He did that.

-Manning is also the first QB to win Super Bowl titles for two franchises.  Kurt Warner nearly did it, but Manning sealed the deal.

For my 50 Stops to Super Bowl 50, here are some notes:

-#46:  The AFC is now 9-5 in February Super Bowls.

-#45:  The team who scores first is now 34-16.  The team with the first TD is 37-13.  And the team leading at half is 37-10 (there has been three ties).

-#42:  The "cat family" is now 0-4 in Super Bowls.  The Bengals and Panthers are both 0-2.  The Jaguars and Lions have yet to reach a Super Bowl.

-#27:  The experienced QB is now 11-10 against the inexperienced QB in Super Bowls.

-#25:  The favorite is now 32-18 in Super Bowls.  Carolina was the favorite in this one.

-#23:  The NFC has now won the coin toss in 17 of the last 19 Super Bowls.

-#22:  There now has been a successful field goal in 48 or the 50 Super Bowls.

-#19:  Teams wearing white jerseys have won 11 of the last 12 Super Bowls.  White jerseys are 32-18 in Super Bowls.

-#5:  The Broncos are now 3-1 lifetime against the Panthers.

-#3:  Manning is the 12th quarterback to win multiple Super Bowls.

-#1:  I still suck at picking Super Bowls.

When You Have A Sentimental Team In The Super Bowl ...

The Charlotte Observer in 1993
when the NFL announced an
expansion team would be placed
in Charlotte.

"Sooooo ... who are you pulling for in the Super Bowl?  Carolina or Denver?"

Usually you get an answer.  Maybe they like a player on one of the teams.  Maybe there's a built in rival that someone will never root for.  Maybe one of the teams has a feel-good story.  Maybe there's a sentiment.

Me?  I'm rooting for Carolina.  Why?  I'm from Charlotte.

I'm sure you are saying, "Well, duh.  That's a dumb question to ask."  Maybe, but I'm not a Panthers fan.  I'm a die hard Washington Redskins fan.  I've been that way my entire life.  When John Riggins turned a 4th-and-1 into a Super Bowl title, I was hooked.  About a quarter of my closet is burgundy and gold shirts.  Even in the 24 years since the Redskins last Super Bowl appearance, I still feel like a championship fan.

So in 1995 when the NFL plopped a team in my hometown, it was exciting.  I will admit that it was awesome.  Still, I was a Redskins fan.  I'm not trading in my first 20 years of fandom for the new thing nearby.  No.  I'm not doing that.  My parents and my sister became diehard Panthers fans.  So did most of my friends and former classmates.  My Facebook page is filled with people from my teenage days that are hyped about the Panthers ... even though there was no Panthers when I hung with them.  I got a little miffed about the Panthers since their arrival knocked my Redskins off television locally as they were the local team.  You still find many Skins fans in the Queen City.

Another quarter of my closet is Carolina blue.  You know, the Tar Heels.  The team that North Carolinians call "Carolina".  Yeah, I'm a die hard of the Heels as well.  I own zero Panthers shirts.  The only Panthers stuff I have is a pennant that hangs in my son's room. That's to signify my family's team.  I also have a Bengals pennant up there now, as I have since moved to the Cincinnati area (where my son would be born) and wanted to put his hometown up there.

He's got two Redskins pennants as well.

Since the Panthers arrived, I must admit that I have a soft spot for them.  I like to see them do well, though it doesn't make me feel bad when they don't.  So when the Panthers got on this 15-1 roll and their playoff dominance on the way to the Super Bowl, I am a bit ... happy.  My family and friends are excited.  My hometown is glowing.  To bring that Lombardi Trophy would be unbelievable to Charlotte.  Charlotte is a relatively newer "big league" city.  The Hornets got there in 1988 and they and the Panthers have combined for zero championships.  Sure, my Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils have won 8 NCAA titles in that span ... those schools are two hours away in the Research Triangle.  It isn't Charlotte's win.  A Panthers Super Bowl title would be ... just as the two states will celebrate.

So I am excited to see the Panthers in the Super Bowl.  I hope they win, though it wouldn't kill me if they lost.

Go Redskins.

50 Stops To Super Bowl 50

Every year since Super Bowl XL, I have used this blog for my "Stops To Super Bowl" list.  Every year, I create a list of smart, dumb, inane and chat worthy items for you to use in any banter leading up to and during the Super Bowl.

This year, it is 50 Stops to Super Bowl 50 and I'm back with some more (and some of the same) little items for you about the upcoming big game.

#50-NO ROMAN NUMERAL:  As you probably know by now, this isn't Super Bowl L.  It is Super Bowl 50.  The NFL branded it this way because of marketing purposes.  The "50" looks better than the "L".  Also, the color has changed to gold this year.  The NFL logo has been in gold and the league has celebrated their past Super Bowls all year long.  

The NFL used the Roman numerals due to the fact that the game was in the calendar year following the regular season.  

If they stuck with the L, that would be the first one character Super Bowl roman numeral since Super Bowl X.  The only others were Super Bowls I and V.  Next year, the Super Bowl will go back to normal and be Super Bowl LI.

#49-CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH:  This will be the 12th Super Bowl hosted by the state of California.  Only Florida has hosted more (15).

This will be the fifth different stadium in Cali to host the game.  The Los Angeles Coliseum, Rose Bowl, Stanford Stadium, Qualcomm Stadium and, now, Levi's Stadium.  Florida also has had five different stadiums (Orange Bowl, Sun Life Stadium, Tampa Stadium, Raymond James Stadium and Alltel Stadium).  It is the fifth different city as well (Los Angeles, Pasadena, San Diego, Stanford, Santa Clara).  

This is the 2nd time the Super Bowl has been held in the Bay Area.  Super Bowl XIX was in Stanford, CA.  The two Bay Area teams (49ers, Raiders) have 8 Super Bowl wins in 11 appearances.

No Team Has Hosted A Super Bowl? No Team Has Even Been Close!!!

New Orleans has played host to the Super Bowl ten times,
but the hometown Saints have only been to one title tilt.

No team has ever played on their home field in the Super Bowl.  It has never happened.  Never.  Most fans know that.  But if you really look into it, it hasn't even been close.  First, some stats on this.

*Of the 50 Super Bowls, 43 of them were played in a stadium that was a home field for an NFL team.
*Since the Jets and Giants share MetLife Stadium, they were both hosts of Super Bowl XLVIII.
*Super Bowl VIII was played in Rice Stadium in Houston.  The Oilers used to play there but were currently playing at the Astrodome.
*Five Super Bowls were played at the Pasadena Rose Bowl and one was at Stanford Stadium.  Neither was home to an NFL franchise at the time.
*The Los Angeles Rams did play in Super Bowl XIV which was in Pasadena.  The San Francisco 49ers played in Super Bowl XIX in Stanford.  Those are the closest examples of a team playing a "home Super Bowl".  Neither were their home fields but both were certainly in their geographic footprint.

Here is the year-by-year records of the teams who hosted the Super Bowl:

Redskins 2016 Schedule Is A Bitch!

The Washington Redskins are NFC East Champions.  Excuse me while I soak this in.  This was not supposed to happen. This team was a wreck coming out of preseason.  Next Sunday, the Redskins will host the Packers in the wildcard round and this magical, unexpected season could come to an end (or it could extend into the next weekend in Arizona or Carolina).

I'm going to enjoy every second of it, because I don't think it will repeat next year.  After all, my beloved Skins did not beat a winning team all this season.  That's fine.  It happens.  But next season's schedule will be a tough one.

Not only is the NFC East always tough to navigate, the Redskins get a 1st place schedule and all that rolls in with it.  The bad part is they also face the NFC North and AFC North this upcoming season.  That means the Redskins will play six playoff teams from this year, including four other division winners.  They'll get to face the two teams with the best records this season.

*COWBOYS (home, away):  Of course, the Cowboys twice.  Dallas should get their act together with a healthy Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

*GIANTS (home, away):  New York could've/should've been the best team in the division.  They let sooooo many games slip away this season.  Now, they could have a new coach next season but the franchise shouldn't change too much.

*EAGLES (home, away):  No more Chip Kelly ... so could this team be better?  Depending on the new coach, there is talent on this roster to get back to where experts thought they'd be.

*PANTHERS (home):  The 15-1 Panthers were far and away the best regular season team this year and could be defending Super Bowl champs when this game happens.  We met earlier this season with Carolina trouncing the Redskins.

*CARDINALS (away):  Not only do the Redskins get to play the 15-1 team ... they get the 13-3 team as well.  Arizona may be the best team in the league this season.

*BENGALS (away):  This game will be played in London.  Cincinnati will be making their 5th straight playoff appearance this weekend.  One of the better offensive teams in the league.

*VIKINGS (home):  NFC North champions who bring in rushing champ Adrian Peterson.  This is a relatively young team that is on the right track under Mike Zimmer.

*PACKERS (home): Well, we will get a rematch of our playoff meeting with Green Bay next year.  Hopefully, the Packers will be looking forward to this game as revenge for their playoff loss to the Redskins.  Hopefully.

*STEELERS (home):  Big Ben and the Steelers get to come to Washington.  Last time they were in DC, it was the night before Barack Obama was elected President.  Pittsburgh is a trendy pick in the AFC playoffs this season.

*LIONS (away):  Detroit is one of those teams that I think is better than they looked this past season.  The Lions are possibly a surprise team for 2016.

*RAVENS (away):  Another team who surprisingly had a bad season.  Not to say that this team just had an off year -- this isn't a great team.  But it is a regional rival that should get the blood boiling.

*BEARS (away):  For the 2nd straight season, the Redskins will visit Chicago to play the Bears.  Washington won a key game this year to catapult their playoff run.

*BROWNS (home):  Who knows what the Browns will look like in 2016?  New GM, new coach and maybe new QB.

NFC Is Hot Heading Into The Postseason; So Are The AFC's Wildcard Teams

The playoffs should be great.  In the AFC, you actually have the "bottom" three teams a bit in a better place than the top three teams.  

*Broncos have lost 2 of last 4

*Patriots have lost 2 straight; lost 4 of 6

*Bengals have lost 2 of 4; lost 4 of 8

Meanwhile, you have the Chiefs on a 10-game winning streak.  The Texans have won 7 of their last 9 games.  The Steelers have won 4 of their last 5 games and 6 of 8.  In the last half of the season, the Steelers and Texans have beaten the Bengals and the Chiefs and Steelers have beaten the Broncos.  The Patriots' four losses over the last six week have come to three non-playoff teams.  The two wildcard teams are pretty hot right now.

Plus, look at the quarterbacks.  The Bengals and Texans are playing with backups and the Broncos went back to Peyton Manning to win in Week 17 to give them home field advantage.  Tom Brady hurt his leg during their Week 17 loss to Miami.  

This should be a wild AFC postseason.

Over in the NFC, we have:

*Vikings have won 3 straight; 9 of 12

*Redskins have won 4 straight; won 6 of 8.

*Cardinals have won 9 of 10

*Seahawks have won 6 of 7; won 8 of 10

*Panthers are 15-1

*Packers have lost 2 straight; lost 6 of 10

This should be an epic postseason.  Aside from Green Bay, everyone is hot. Cam Newton should be he NFL MVP.  Carson Palmer should get a few MVP votes and should be the Comeback Player of the Year.  Russell Wilson has been on fire over the last six weeks or so.  Kirk Cousins broke all kinds of Redskins records and led the league in completion percentage.  Even Teddy Bridgewater has been playing very well heading into the playoffs.  And those woeful Packers?  They still have that Aaron Rodgers guy.

Are There Just Too Many Bowl Games? Or Not Enough?

We are nearing the end of bowl season.  We have a full slate today and then the National Championship game in about 10 days.  As usual, bowl season has had its ups and downs ... but is it the right amount of each?  Is the bowl season too long, not long enough or just right?

I've always subscribed to the thinking that there can never be "too many" bowl games.  Ultimately, the kids get to play in one last game (that's huge for a senior) and a place they may not usually get to go to.  They get a week worth of activities and some swag along the way.

Look at the Russell Athletic Bowl, where North Carolina played Baylor.  The game is in Orlando.  UNC may get to go to Florida to play Miami or Florida State once in a while, but how often does Baylor's players?  Orlando in December.  They also have some activities to get through, including some life altering ones, per the bowl's official website:

Located in Kissimmee, the Give Kids the World village houses children, and their families, with life-threatening illnesses and gives the players and coaches time to spend time with the kids and play games, ride rides and compete in a dance-off.

They also get quite a collection of gifts.  One is a $350 gift card to a local retailer of their choosing.  So they can get clothes, electronics, or even use it to buy loved ones Christmas presents.  They also get a watch, footwear, beach towel and other things.  Around the country, there are watches, cowboy boots, beanies, backpacks, pullovers, shopping trips, sunglasses, hats, speakers, cell phone cases and all kinds of other gifts.

That's cool for the kids.  Some don't get these kinds of opportunities often, even if you think they do at a major college program.  Not all of these schools are major programs.

This thinking is my main line of thinking.  It's good for the kids.

Of course, there is the part that looks bad.  The stadiums that are barely filled.  It looks bad on TV, especially with the wide shots of the stadium.  Some are in some no-exotic cities like Albuquerque, Boise, Birmingham, Shreveport, Montgomery and Annapolis.  Nothing against those cities, but they aren't Miami, New Orleans or San Diego.  Some bowls have rather unattractive names that just have that feel of a corporate cash grab. Hey, that's the world we live in.  The Famous Idaho Potato GoDaddy world presented by Dr. Pepper.

This year, there were a few 5-7 teams that made bowls.  That's where people are starting to have the biggest gripes.  The Cure Bowl (which is in Orlando, like two other bowls) ended with both teams having losing records.  Wasn't a bowl trip supposed to signify a darn good season?  Not anymore.  There are 80 teams playing in these 41 bowls.  Back in 1995, there were just 18 bowls.  Do the math and that means 25 ranked teams and just 11 unranked teams made a bowl game.  Now 5-7 teams get there.

There are even bowls in the works for Austin, Australia and Charleston, South Carolina.  Bowl games are good TV.  They are live events in an age where that's key to advertisers and the games are on during a weak period for programming.  Is it stretching this a bit too thin?  Only for people who just don't think mediocre football should be celebrated.

Again, I'm all about the end result: these kids from schools who normally don't get the opportunity have a blast.  Do you think Georgia State's football team gets to be nationally televised on ESPN as the lone game at the time often?

Just enjoy it.

State Of My Teams 2015

The end of 2015 is near, which means it is time to take a look at the state of my favorite teams.  The good, the bad, the firesale.  So let's get to it.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS BASKETBALL:  I feel pretty good about the Heels.  While their preseason #1 ranking is gone and they have lost the lone two "true road" games this season thus far, I like what this team should be when March rolls around.  They are talented, deep and experienced.  The "ifs" are pretty easy to see.  If Marcus Paige and the rest can be healthy for the tournament.  If the team plays hard, especially defensively, every game.  If they can continue their good perimeter shooting.  All those could equate to UNC's sixth title.  Plus, if Brice Johnson keeps playing like he has over the last few weeks, then this team could be the best in the nation.

That's what is interesting about the Heels.  It is a NOW thing.  Next year's recruiting has picked up, but the 2016-17 Tar Heels won't be elite.  Paige and Johnson will graduate and Justin Jackson could go pro.  A look at 2015 as a whole saw some so-so play from last season that saw late leads squandered and the investigation into the program by the NCAA heating up.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS FOOTBALL:  What a season for Carolina!  Sure, it was book-ended by losses to South Carolina teams (South Carolina at the beginning; Clemson at the end).  There was an 11-game winning streak in the middle and some lofty offensive performances.  Now, several of the guys who made this a magical season will be gone after the Russell Athletic Bowl game against Baylor, but that doesn't take away from a year where UNC won the Coastal Division and gave Clemson (the top ranked and undefeated Tigers) a tough game in the ACC Championship.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS:  A wild year, to be sure.  The Redskins started 2015 in a rebuilding mode and it all looked bad.  The great promise of 2012 is gone.  Robert Griffin III was given his final shot at proving he was the future of the Skins.  The defense was overhauled.  There was a new GM.  The draft wasn't sexy, and neither was the free-agents being brought in.

Which was perfect.  Washington got more bang for the buck and head coach Jay Gruden's decision to dump RG3 during the preseason for Kirk Cousins has proven right for the team.  While this hasn't been a dominant season by any means, the Redskins are a win (today) away from being NFC East champions and a playoff team.  How?  This was a franchise stuck in the mud.  Nothing of value and having to find the quarterback of the future again.  The nickname was in the news again and Daniel Snyder's money grabbing was looking unattractive.  It just looked like another 3-13 year.

Now?  Well, there could be a playoff appearance, the Redskins are trying to keep Cousins as our franchise QB, RG3's contract will be off the books and the GM looks like a guy that can bring a lot of talent into the fold.

CINCINNATI REDS:  My final two teams aren't as feel good.  The Reds are rebuilding and for many around here, it is tough to watch.  I've always said the Reds were in a weird position as a franchise.  They cannot spend with the best in the league (or the division, like St. Louis or Chicago) but they don't have to keep rebuilding to make a run (like the Pirates).  A couple of years ago, the Reds attempted to be like the former, but are now turning into the latter.  The Reds gave huge deals to Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Homer Bailey but now having to sell off players like Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier to start over again.  The Frazier deal hurt Reds fans as he was a favorite.  But it is the reality of where the Reds are in the pecking order.  The Reds made a great attempt early in the decade and just couldn't get past the first round.  Now it is time to start over.

The problem is that it is tougher than you think.  The Reds still have Votto and Bailey who are getting paid a lot of money.  The deals for Phillips and Chapman fell apart so they are still Reds.  Feast or famine Jay Bruce and oft-injured Devin Mesoraco are among the more expensive players.  The 2015 season was a last-ditch effort to see if there was anything left in this team.  It didn't, and now Cincinnati is heading into a new era.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS:  The Lakers are in the same boat, albeit a nice, bigger boat.  The Kobe Bryant era is ending and he will be retiring at the end of the season.  While sad, it is good because it finally allows the team to move on to the next phase.  Not only was Kobe's contract (the biggest in the NBA) hurting the Lakers, his style of play was hindering the development of the young guys and a detriment to free agents.

Outside of a few players (namely Julius Randle, DeAngelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson), most of these guys won't be in Los Angeles when the good times roll.  The key for the future is (a) being bad enough to be able to keep their 1st round draft pick next summer (if it is outside the top three, it moves to Philly) and (b) being able to pull some big free agents into the fold.

Could The Redskins Really Win The NFC East?

In life, goals change.

When I was a little kid, I wanted to draw cartoons.  That was until I wanted to be a baseball player.  Then a basketball player.  Then working for Nike.  Then work in marketing.  Finally, I ended up doing none of those things and taking a job that paid well but has zero allure.  So on the side, I write about sports and the teams I love.

One of those teams I love is the Redskins.  Their goals have also changed.  If you told any Redskins fan that the season would end at 7-9, many would have been pleasantly surprised (including yours truly).  I mean, this was a franchise in August that finally gave up on RG3, the head coach was on everyone's chopping block, the nickname was being debated on every talk show and the owner was charging $50 envelope fees.  Yes there was talent on the roster, but there was no reason to think this team would be the best in the division.

Yet here we are.  The Redskins are a win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday away from winning the NFC East for the second time in four years.  I mean ... how?  What?  Really?  Sure, it is more an indictment of the division than the Redskins dominance, but this wasn't supposed to be.  It still may not.  A loss at Philly would be catastrophic for Washington.  Philly would own the tiebreaker and the Redskins would need to win at Dallas in the season finale and hope the Giants beat the Eagles.  But right now, the Redskins control their own fate.

So what will happen?  The Redskins have won 3 of 4 and are the hotter team.  The Eagles have lost 4 of 6 (though one of those wins came in New England) and their defense has been lit up over the last two months.  Bad Kirk Cousins is a memory.  Since that season-changing comeback win over the Buccaneers in Week 7, Cousins has thrown 16 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions.  Cousins also has more rushing TDs (5) than the Eagles' huge free agent pickup, DeMarco Murray (4).  I mean, just give them the division crown right now!

However, your gut says that this is the NFC East and Philly will be ready to knock the Redskins down a peg.  Many Redskins fans (including myself) are just enjoying the ride but are prepared for the rug to be ripped from under them any game now.  I admit, I was in that camp.  But, like the Redskins' goals, I've changed as well.  This may not be a team that will do much damage in the postseason but they are the cream of the crop in a division that went sour this season.  No matter, the Redskins beat the Eagles this Saturday.  ,

Redskins 24-22

What Week 17 Game Should Be Flexed

Week 15 is nearly over (the Lions and Saints face off Monday night in the week's finale) and the end of the season is near.  What game could be the flex game in Week 17 and the final game of the regular season?  The NFL likes to have a game with a lot on the line (mainly a playoff spot up for grabs).

1-EAGLES AT GIANTS:  The NFC East has practically owned the final game of the regular season slot since its inception.  This season could be no different.  Now, a lot of things have to happen for this to be the game.  First, the Eagles need to beat the Redskins this coming Saturday.  If the Redskins win that game, they win the NFC East and this game is moot.  However, an Eagles win puts them in the driver's seat.  If the Giants also win this coming weekend (a hard task at Minnesota), then this could be for all the marbles.  The only risk comes is if the Redskins lose to the Cowboys in Week 17 (after a Giants loss in Week 16), then this game could be meaningless as the Eagles would clinch prior to the game.

2-JAGUARS AT TEXANS:  This could be for the AFC South championship.  First off, the Texans could need this win to clinch the division.  But, like other games, its relevance could depend on the fortune of another team (this time the Colts).  But, if the Jaguars find a way to win Week 16 and the Texas and Colts lose Week 16, then this game is guaranteed to mean something.  See, a Texans and Colts loss plus a Jags win in Week 16 means that Houston is 7-8, Indy is 6-9 and Jacksonville is 6-9 entering the final week.  The Colts result earlier in the day wouldn't spoil this game at all.  Colts win and this game comes down to the Texans/Colts for the division.  A Colts loss means this game would be for the AFC South championship between the Texans and Jaguars.

3-VIKINGS AT PACKERS:  Could be for the NFC North crown.  However, both teams may already be in the playoffs by then so all this would be for is the division.  But, Minnesota may not be a playoff team ... yet.  Of course, that would take a miracle of the Vikings losing to the Giants in Week 16, the Seahawks losing their last two games and the Falcons winning their last two games (one of which is against the Panthers).

4-BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS:  If there isn't a guarantee of a playoff spot anywhere, you could see the NFL elect to go with the 16-0 storyline.  Carolina's pursuit for the second 16-0 regular season in history could be the feast of the night. I wouldn't blame them.  However, the NFL would try to demand the Panthers attempt to for the undefeated season and not just rest their starters.

5-REDSKINS AT COWBOYS:  I doubt this would be the game.  If the Redskins beat Philly this Saturday, they clinch the NFC East.  A Redskins loss and the Eagles control the division.  Putting this game on Sunday night is risky because an Eagles win earlier in the day would eliminate Washington.

How Are QBs Getting Hurt When We Have All These QB-Protection Rules?

Tom Brady had his knee run into by Bernard Pollard in Week 1 of the 2008 season, and since then we've seen rules protecting quarterbacks get stiffer.  You can't touch their helmets, you can't tackle them low, you cannot hit them hard unless they pretend they aren't a quarterback for a second.

The thinking was that we were seeing all these quarterbacks injured and QBs, as you know, are the faces of the league.  Guys were getting hurt and it was bad business.

Yet it doesn't seem to have helped.

The 2015 NFL season has seen a lot of QB injuries.  Andy Dalton (Bengals) is the latest, breaking his thumb trying to make a tackle and will most likely miss the rest of the regular season.  He joins Tony Romo (Cowboys), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Josh McCown (Browns)

Peyton Manning (Broncos), Andrew Luck (Colts), Drew Brees (Saints), Sam Bradford (Eagles), Jay Cutler (Bears), Marcus Mariota (Titans) and Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) have also missed time this season.  You also had Geno Smith (Jets) injured with a punch to the face and a broken jaw prior to the season.

That's one-third of the NFL that's lost their starting QB to injury.  Some have come back, some are lost for the season and some are in limbo.  Several are Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

King Me: Transforming College Conferences Into 10-Team Memberships

The ACC logo in 1995 when only nine teams made up the league.
Now 15 teams are in the basketball league making for an
oversized conference where teams don't play each other as often.

I've felt this way for a long time.  I have felt that the college conferences should be no more and no less than ten teams.  Ten members.  Each conference.  That's it.  That's simple.

Now, in all of the conference realignment over the last 25 years, I've sat back and absorbed all the chaos.  As an ACC guy, I've seen what this can do to a league.  The ACC added Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Louisville over the last 15 years ... but lost Maryland along the way.  While the conference is neat to navigate at times (my Tar Heels get to face some great programs) it has also killed a lot of what I held dear in this league.  Playing everyone and visiting all those great stadiums and arenas.  The kinship of being in a league.

Now, North Carolina and Wake Forest don't play every year in football (to that point, they actually scheduled "non-conference" games against each other).  Clemson and UNC don't face off twice in basketball anymore.  The round robin feel of football and basketball is gone and conferences just don't feel the same anymore.

That's why I'm taking it back!  If I was King Of Sports, I'd make this happen.  The 10-team conference is set up perfectly.  It causes a 9-game football schedule in which each team gets to play every other conference member and a basketball schedule where you get an 18-game schedule where you face everyone twice ... meaning you visit every other conference member's gym.  We get true champions and a fair shake in the standings.

If you still love conference championship games in football, we can make it where the top two teams in the standings will face off in a title game.  Hell, throwing out the divisional format would usually mean better matchups in those title games.  Last year, for example, we could have had Florida State-Clemson and TCU-Baylor in title games.  I actually prefer that idea and the ACC has even toyed with proposing that under the current setup.

So what would the conferences look like?  Glad you asked.  I've realigned them using some thought and compassion.  I'm basically resetting things back to 1990 and starting from there.  I'm not looking at the now and lopping off teams in the current memberships.  Then I'm moving from there.

Looking At The Three Remaining Undefeated Teams

CAROLINA PANTHERS (8-0)

How they got here:  Some dismissed the Panthers because of their relatively underwhelming early schedule.  However, Carolina has now beaten the Seahawks in Seattle and the Eagles, Colts and Packers in Charlotte.

Most impressive win:  27-23 at Seattle.  Anytime you can win in Seattle is impressive.  Marching down the field with time running out and scoring a game winning touchdown is all the more sweeter.

How long could this last?:  Carolina has three of the next four on the road (Titans, Cowboys, Saints), with a home date with the Redskins lodged in there.  Those roadies won't be easy, but they aren't against the elite teams they've been facing of late.  They still have both matchups with the Falcons to look forward to.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-0)

How they got here:  Cincinnati has been flexing its offensive muscle.  Their bend-but-don't-break defense has been pretty good and Andy Dalton is looking like a MVP candidate has been making this a scary team.  This team is getting comparisons to the 1988 team that went to the Super Bowl.

Most impressive win:  27-24 vs Seattle.  Not trying to pick on Seattle, but many fans felt that this was where this team could falter.  This was a big game on a big stage and the Bengals have struggled in those situations.  It looked like this would be the case again, falling behind 24-7 in the fourth quarter.  But Andy Dalton led a comeback for the ages in Cincinnati and pulled out the overtime victory.

How long could this last?:  In two weeks, the Bengals go to Arizona to face Carson Palmer and the Cardinals.  That's going to be tough.  Aside from that, their Week 16 game at Denver looks to be the most daunting task.  

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-0)

How they got here:  These are the defending champions and Tom Brady didn't have to serve that four-game suspension.  New England has been winning impressively all season long.  But this hasn't been the toughest of slates.

Most impressive win:  34-27 at Indianapolis.  No, this isn't the Colts that we though we'd have this season or even the one that the Pats beat for the AFC title a year ago.  But this was the revenge of sorts for Deflategate.  Plus it was a tough game ... probably the toughest test they've had this season.

How long could this last?:  The schedule toughens up now.  In the next three weeks, the Patriots travel to New York to face the always dangerous Giants and to see old rival Peyton Manning and his Broncos.  .