Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Sportz Assassin's Sweet 16 Preview



Let's just jump into it ...

CHALK CHALK: This Sweet 16 still has all four No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds and two No. 4 seeds. The only surprises would be No. 5 seeded Auburn and No. 12 seeded Oregon. Still, all sixteen teams who were favored to win in the round of 32 did so. The only other year that all the 1s, 2s and 3s made it this far was 2009.

COULD THE ACC DO THE IMPOSSIBLE: The ACC has five teams still alive and has a legitimate shot to have four teams in the Final Four. Now, that would buck every trend imaginable and involve beating a lot of really good teams but it is plausible. Duke, Virginia and North Carolina are No. 1 seeds are arguably the three best teams in the tournament. Florida State sits in the West Region with Gonzaga in their sites ... a Zags team they beat in the Sweet 16 last year.  Again, this isn't a likely scenario but the conference has already achieved some big things already.

IS IT TIME FOR THE SEC TO GAIN ITS RESPECT: The SEC is usually looked down upon as a league that isn't a major power in basketball. Yeah, they have Kentucky and there is always a team or two that makes noise but it no one takes it seriously. Maybe we should. Kentucky is back in the Sweet 16, Auburn just spanked Kansas and is as hot as anybody and LSU has played well despite all the smoke around their program. All three could get to the Final Four and could make a title run.

CAN THE BIG TEN FINALLY WIN A TITLE:  It is amazing to think that the Big Ten hasn't won a national championship since Michigan State did in 2000. In fact, that Spartans title is the only championship that league has won over the last 30 years. Stunning. That doesn't mean they haven't been close -- three times over the last six years a Big Ten team has played in the national championship game and seven times since that Michigan State title. Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue are still in the thick of the race.

PJ WASHINGTON'S FOOT:  Every tournament seemingly has an injury we're watching and this year it is Kentucky's Washington. He missed the Wildcats' first two tournament games with a bum foot and has been on the bench in a cast. Getting past Abilene Christian and Wofford is one thing, but dealing with Houston and North Carolina or Auburn is another. Even if he can play, how effective will he be? It is the difference between getting to the Final Four or not.

WHO DOES THE NATION LOOK TO: There is no Cinderella story here. Sure, Oregon is a double-digit seed but they were in the Final Four two years ago and won the Pac 12 tournament. Everyone else in the Sweet 16 were favored in both their games. With big, bad blue bloods like Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky still around while Michigan State, Michigan, Gonzaga and Virginia are back again. Houston, to me, seems like the team to latch on to if you want to root for an underdog. They will play Kentucky on Friday with (possibly) North Carolina on Sunday if they win. This is their first Sweet 16 since the Akeem Olajuwon days of the early 1980s (1984, to be exact) and they represent the American Athletic Conference.

CAN VIRGINIA KEEP IT GOING: No program has had the kind of skepticism as Virginia the last few years. They have been winning ACC championships over the last four years but have no Final Fours to show for it. They were the first No. 1 seed to lose to a 16-seed ever in 2018. They exorcised that demon a bit just by getting to the Sweet 16 this year. Still, they need to at least get to a Final Four before we can get off their back. Of all the top seeds, they have the easiest game in the next round (Oregon). Lose that and we lose some more faith in them.

WHERE IS DUKE'S HEAD AT?:  Everyone just saw Duke nearly lose to UCF on Sunday and suddenly all these red flags were raised. Those flags were always there. They are mainly a two-man team, they are not a great three point shooting team and they aren't deep. That isn't new. Also, just because they nearly lost to UCF doesn't mean they can't win the championship. We've seen plenty of instances where a team won a very close game and gone on to win the whole thing. This could be the punch in the face that keeps them on their toes.

THERE'S SOMETHING ABOUT GONZAGA: Speaking of lacking respect yet having a ton of talent is the Zags. They very well could be the most talented team in the nation and no one is noticing. Sure, they've spent their last ten weeks playing West Coast Conference games and the last time anyone noticed them they put up an epic dud in a loss to Saint Mary's in the WCC tournament championship game, but this team is loaded. The Zags spent those weeks in WCC play just destroying conference foes and, lest you forget, the only team to have beaten Duke at full strength. While the other title contenders had some hiccups during the first weekend, the Bulldogs punished their opponents. Yet no one is talking about them. Hardly at all. That may be what they want.

1 comment:

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