Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Recap: 48 Stops To Super Bowl XLVIII

The Super Bowl is over after Seattle's dominant win over Denver.  Every year, I try to look back at my 48 Stops To Super Bowl XLVIII and see how those little statistical tidbits fit in with the actual game.

#1-SUPER BOWL PREDICTION:   But Seattle has these above statistics working in their favor -- the stats about dominant defenses in the Super Bowl -- plus I think the weather will factor into this game, even if there is no snow.  I'd rather have Pete Carroll prepping for this game more than John Fox ... and I think very highly of Foxy.  I also believe Seattle has the commitment to run the ball and keep Peyton off the field and out of rhythm.  To me, those factors point to Seattle as the winners of this game.  Seahawks win Super Bowl XLVIII, 24-20
Obviously, I hit the mark on this one.  Seattle won the game, as I predicted.  Of course, it wasn't the running game that kept Manning off the field ... it was that great defense.

#9-STILL HAVEN'T WON ONE: There are now four franchises that have never appeared in a Super Bowl (Lions, Browns, Jaguars and Texans). But there are ten others that have never won the Super Bowl in any of their appearances. They are the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, San Diego Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. The Bills and Vikings have lost four games apiece; the Bengals and Eagles have each lost two. The rest lost on their only trip.
You can take the Seahawks off that list now.
#11-DON'T TRAIL BY DOUBLE DIGITS: Teams that are facing a double-digit deficit are 2-41. A couple things are interesting about that stat. First, the only teams to come back from a 10-point deficit and win is the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XXII and the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. The Skins trailed 10-0 before scoring the next 42 points. The Saints scored 31 of the next 38 points after trailing 10-0. That also makes those Super Bowls the only ones where both teams faced a double digit deficit. Also, it is quite amazing that 41 of 47 Super Bowls have seen one team go up by at least 10 at some point in the game.
Now a team that trails by double digits is 2-42 in the Super Bowl.  It is still amazing that 42 of 48 Super Bowls have seen a team go up by at least 10 points at some point.
#12-PASSING FANCY: One would gather that Peyton Manning will have more passing attempts in this Super Bowl than Russell Wilson. Not a certainty, but a solid guess. Manning set the NFL single season record for passing yards this year. Of the ten most pass attempts in a Super Bowl game in history, nine were for the losing team. Jim Kelly threw 58 passes for the Bills against the Redskins in Super Bowl XXVI, Eagles' QB Donovan McNabb is 2nd with 51 passes in their Super Bowl XXXIX loss. The lone winning QB in that mix is New England's Tom Brady who threw 48 passes in their Super Bowl XXXVIII victory over the Carolina Panthers.
Manning threw 49 passes in Super Bowl XLVIII, tied for 5th most in Super Bowl history.  That makes 10 of the top 11 pass attempt games in Super Bowl history going to the loser.
#13-DOUG WILLIAMS: Doug Williams is still the only black quarterback to lead his team to a Super Bowl title. 
Lost in the celebration was the fact that Russell Wilson is now the 2nd black quarterback to lead his team to a Super Bowl title.  As I've said in the past, I'm really amazed that Williams was the lone man to do this in the first 47 years of Super Bowls ... and that no one had done it in the 25 Super Bowls after he did.  Well, now he has company and the fact that it was kind of glossed over was a bit interesting as well.
#19-WEARING WHITE IS THE KEY: Since the Broncos are designated the home team, they will be wearing their home orange jerseys for the Super Bowl. That means the Seahawks will go with their white jerseys. In fact, the team that has worn white uniforms had won the last eight of nine Super Bowls (Ravens, Giants, Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Steelers, Patriots). The Packers won three years ago wearing green. The Ravens won last year's Super Bowl victory while wearing white.
The team that has worn the white jerseys now have won NINE of the last TEN Super Bowls.  That makes zero sense.
#22-SOME MORE STATITUDES: Here is another piece of trivia for you.
-There has been at least one successful field goal in 45 of 47 Super Bowls.
-Teams that have been shut out for one half (either the first or second) are a combined 1-18. The lone winner was those 1972 Dolphins who went scoreless in the second half of Super Bowl VII.
-Only one Super Bowl featured teams from the same state. Super Bowl XXIX between the Chargers and 49ers. The Giants and Bills both are "New York" teams, but the Giants play their home games in New Jersey.
-Also, teams that intercept a pass for a TD are 11-0 in the Super Bowl. No losing team has returned a pick-six.
Well, these are interesting.  We've had a successful field goal in 46 of 48 Super Bowls.  Teams that were shut out in one half of the Super Bowl are now 1-19 (the Broncos had zero first half points).  And a team that intercepts a pass for a TD is now 12-0 in Super Bowls.
#23-THE NFC OWNS THE COIN TOSS ... YET ... : The NFC somehow won 14 consecutive coin tosses in the Super Bowl until the last two years. The team that wins the opening coin toss is just 23-24 in the game. That averages out to ... well ... the flip of a coin. However, the coin toss winner has been the Super Bowl loser in 11 of the last 16 games.
The NFC got back to its winning ways by winning the coin toss again.  That means the NFC has won 15 out of the last 17 Super Bowl coin tosses.  Since Seattle won, the record for the coin flip winner is 24-24.  Yes, a coin flip.

Also, the Seahawks became just the second team to win the coin flip and defer.  Only the Arizona Cardinals did that.
#25-DON'T DISMISS THE FAVORITES: Yeah, there are upsets, but don't count on them. The favorite has won nine of the last 15 Super Bowls. In fact the favorite is 31-16 in the Super Bowl. Teams favored by at least 7 points are 19-6.
Make that the favorite is 32-16, as Denver was a 2.5 fave.
#27-BEEN THERE, DONE THAT: This will be the 19th Super Bowl where one starting QB comes in with Super Bowl experience while the other one doesn't. The last time that happened was Super Bowl XLV when newbie Aaron Rodgers beat Ben Roethlisberger. Does experience matter? Well, the QB with the experience is just 10-9 in those games. However, in the last three occasions of this happening the new guy won. Rodgers (new) beat Big Ben (old), Drew Brees (new) beat Peyton Manning (old) and Eli Manning (new) beat Tom Brady (old) in their first Super Bowl matchup. If that trend continues, Russell (zero experience) would beat Manning (two previous games). 
Add Wilson to the streak.  So the having the Super Bowl experienced QB means nothing as the record is 10-10 with the newbies on a 4 game winning streak.
#31-TOP OFFENSE AGAINST TOP DEFENSE: Like I said before, this will be the first time the top scoring offense has faced the top scoring defense in the Super Bowl since SB XXV. It has only happened four time previously. In three of the four occasions, the top defense ended up victorious In addition, this will be just the 2nd time the top yardage offense faces the top yardage defense in the Super Bowl. The only other occasion was Super Bowl XXXVII when the Buccaneers (defense) beat the Raiders (offense). This is the 19th time that a regular-season scoring champ has reached the Super Bowl. The previous 18 teams were 10-8 in the title game This is the 16th time that the defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL has made the Super Bowl since the merger. The previous 15 teams went 12-3 in those Super Bowls. Defense wins championships.
Much was made of this stat, but it proved true again.  The top offense is now 10-9 in this game with the top defense now 13-3.  Defense wins championships.
#45-SCORE EARLY AND OFTEN: The team who scores first in a Super Bowl is 31-16. However, the team who has scored first has lost six of the last twelve Super Bowls. *Teams who score at least 30 points are 24-2. Only the Cowboys (SB XIII) and the 49ers (SB XLVII) scored at least 30 points and lost. *Teams that score the first TD are 34-13. *Teams leading at the half are 35-10 (there have been two ties)
The team who scored first won this Super Bowl, making the mark 32-16.  The team that scores 30 is now 25-2.  And the team that scored the first TD, Seattle, is now 35-13.  Halftime leaders, like Seattle, are now 36-10.


buzmeg said...

The season's passing yardage leader has never won a Super Bowl. Only four have made it the SB and all have lost. This stat/trend is now 48-0. It dates back to 1966.

Sportz Assassin said...

Great stat!