The power conference rule the Sweet 16 and we've watched at Cinderella never made it to the ball. Of all the memorable upsets in the 2026 tournament -- and there weren't that many -- really only High Point popping Wisconsin is in the tradition of a typical Cinderella upset.
So the narrative has been that NIL and the transfer portal have moved the little guy out of the equation. Sure, there may be some truth to that thinking. The transfer portal moreso, as it has allowed the best players from the mid-majors the ability to develop and become prospects for bigger programs. Now the power schools have the mid-majors' top players and the mid-majors lack the experience and talent that typically were paramount for those NCAA tournament upsets.
But that's not the only reason for the lack of upsets in this tournament, and to pin everything on NIL and the transfer portal is a bit short sighted.
CONFERENCE EXPANSION
The power confererences are much bigger now and much more condensed. The ACC has 18 schools. So does the Big Ten. The SEC and Big 12 have 16 schools each. The Big East is up to 11 schools.
Sure, some of that expansion has been due to the implosion of the Pac-12, but not all of it. SMU, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, Butler, Xavier and Creighton used to be mid-major schools that have become power schools over the past decade or so. SMU, BYU, UCF and Houston are all in this tournament. There used to be 72 power schools across the then-power six leagues. Now there are 79 ... including Houston, who has become a hoops power of late.
Having 18-team leagues means we will have teams with poor conference records finding their way into the dance. That's why a team like Auburn was seriously considered for an at-large bid despite their pedestrian record. SMU got an at-large berth despite going 8-10 in the ACC. Four teams with a better ACC record didn't get in. Iowa, who is in the Sweet 16, was 10-10 in Big Ten play.
And while the Pac-12 may see its schools in the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten, the consolidation of that talent helps raising the schedules and metrics of all those schools. Former Pac-12 schools Arizona and UCLA were the only ones to make this tournament, but both help lift up the schedules and metrics of others in their leagues. And that's important to note because of ...
NET RANKINGS
The NET rankings have a lot to do with this as well. The NET has become the latest metric that everyone leans on to determine not only who makes the tournament but where they are seeded. That tends to hurt mid-majors not only when it comes to the bubble but how the bracket is seeded. While the NET is absolutely far from perfect, it is the best we've had at attempting to slot how good teams really are. When teams are seeded properly, you lack quirkiness of seeding issues that could make for a mid-major school to upset a power school.
The NET has also introduced the "Quad" system. By now you all know the deal: Quad wins are not only who you beat but where you beat them. And those power conferences get many more opportunities to pile up Quad 1 and 2 wins than their mid-major counterparts. North Carolina went, like, 1-12 in Quad 1 games last season which was enough to slide them into the tournament. Meanwhile, Miami-OH's lack of Quad 1 games ... let alone wins ... put them into the First Four and an 11th seed.
In the past, Miami-OH likely would have been seeded higher than an 11 just off their 31-1 record. Metrics said otherwise. So Miami ended up playing a 6-seed in the first round instead of, say, a 9 of 10 seed. Honestly, the metrics should have kept Miami-OH out of the tournament altogether, but the public cry to include a team that went undefeated during the regular season made it all but a rubber stamp.
The NET and Quads is what kept Auburn in the bubble discussions. In the past, it would deemed ridiculous for that to be the case.
MID-MAJOR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS
Understand this: each conference determines who gets their automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. It just so happens that all of them decide to have their conference tournament champion earn the automatic bid. Conferences could have their regular season champ get the AQ (automatic qualifier) ... which should be their best team over a four month period ... but those leagues really want that TV money from having ESPN or CBS televising their conference tournaments.
Having said that, the mid-majors don't always put their best representative out there into the tournament. While that makes the conference tournaments fun, it can hurt the NCAA tournament.
Belmont, Navy, Austin Peay, UNC-Wilmington, Liberty, Merrimack, and Stephen F. Austin had dominant seasons for their conferences but lost in their postseason tournaments. Another dominant mid-major won their league and made an impression in the NCAA field -- High Point.
Maybe mid-majors need to adopt the formula that the WCC, OVC and American conferences have done and have a step ladder tournament that rewards the best teams with byes. Lots of byes.
In the WCC, the top two teams in the standings are automatically in the semifinals. Meaning they are two wins away from winning their conference championship and the AQ that comes with it. That has done pretty well for them, as it all but assured Gonzaga or Saint Mary's is in the tournament and reduces the risk of some wild game knocks them out.
Obviously that isn't fool-proof since those top seeds can still be beaten, but it makes it much less likely to give your best team some rest while they take on a team that's been playing in those step ladder games to get to you. That gives a greater probability for those league's best teams of getting in and having a better shot to win games in the tournament.
By the way: the top seed in the American, OVC and WCC all won their tournaments.
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