Monday, December 4, 2023

No Matter If You Thought Florida State Or Alabama Should Be In, The Selection Committee Got It Wrong


So the College Football Selection Committee decided on Sunday to leave out Florida State, the ACC champion who went 13-0 and beat SEC teams LSU and Florida along the way. In their place was Alabama, a 12-1 team who beat Georgia in the SEC championship but lost at home to Texas earlier in the season. 

Since then there has been great debate about what was the right thing to do. Was putting Alabama in right since they are the better team? Or should they put in an undefeated Power 5 champion who lost their starting quarterback to a broken leg? Obviously the committee decided to do the former. While that may have been the right thing to do, their reasoning and justification is wrong.

I'm not saying that Alabama shouldn't be in or that Florida State should. I am here to argue the argument or why the Selection Committee did what they did. They like the use talking point to justify what they did, but they don't make much sense when you look at the entire picture. 

JORDAN TRAVIS IS OUT

Their main justification is that quarterback Justin Travis broke his leg. The Heisman hopeful was having a fantastic season but broke his leg against North Alabama ... what should have been a cupcake game wedged between two rivalry games turned into what literally made their season. In that game and in the following week against Florida, their second string quarterback played. The Seminoles would beat North Alabama, 58-13, and Florida, 24-15. 

In the Florida game, however, the second string QB took a hit to a head and entered the concussion protocol. He wasn't released by the time they faced Louisville in the ACC championship game in Charlotte. So a freshman started the game and it was ... well ... meh. But the Noles did win, 16-6.

When the four playoff teams were announced, committee chair Boo Corrigan said that they didn't feel Florida State was a playoff team without Travis. They said they felt Alabama was better.  Fine. That is part of the criteria of considering teams.

FLORIDA STATE'S STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

After the Travis point is out, people start pointing to Florida State's strength of schedule ... which was around 55th in the country. Here's the thing about strength of schedule: it can be heavily skewed by a lot of factors outside of a team's control. As a perfect example, the ACC title showdown with Louisville should have been against a top ten team, but the Cardinals laid a big egg against Kentucky in their regular season finale. That game hurt Florida State. So did the fact that the ACC's lower tier of teams are frankly worse than the SEC's. But the Noles won every one of them, including games against SEC teams LSU (at a neutral site) and Florida (at Gainsville). For context, No. 9 Missouri only beat Florida by two at home. 

This point will come up in a bit. 

BUT WHY IS FLORIDA STATE RANKED 5TH?

But then why is Florida State ranked 5th in the final CFP rankings? If you ranked Alabama ahead of Florida State because you think they are better, then wouldn't you also feel that Georgia (ranked 6th) is better too? Heck, No. 7 Ohio State would be better. So would No. 8 Oregon. Ya know, the same Oregon who were 10-point favorites against Washington in the Pac-12 championship game? Washington won that contest. 

If you ask, "why does that matter" then you are missing the entire point of rankings ... especially the College Football Playoff rankings. If you're top priority is to rank who the top 25 teams in the country are then do just that. Especially when you justify putting Alabama ahead of Florida State by saying that they are better right now. You aren't ranking by resumes or records ... but by the eye test of who you think is better.  Fine.

THEN WHY DIDN'T YOU ACTUALLY PICK THE FOUR BEST TEAMS?

If you picked Alabama because they are one of the four best teams and not recognizing Florida State (who, by the way, had a Strength of Record of No. 3 in the nation), then why do we have the four teams we have? To me, Georgia is still one of the four best teams in the nation. In fact ... if this means anything to you ... Georgia would be strong favorites over all four teams that are actually in the playoff. You could make a fantastic argument that Georgia, Alabama, Michigan and Ohio State are really the four best teams in the country.  Ohio State has the toughest strength of schedule and Georgia, well, we discussed their qualifications. 

STOP MENTIONING GEORGIA'S 29-GAME WINNING STREAK


Please don't tell anyone that Alabama got in because they beat a team that had won their last 29 games. No. No. No. It's true that the school has won 29 straight, but not that team. If we say that Florida State isn't the same team now as they were earlier in the year when Travis was healthy, then you are aware that the Georgia team that played in 2023 is not the team that played in 2021 or 2022. Stetson Bennett wasn't on that field in 2023. Neither were all those guys who are now playing in the NFL on Sundays. No, Alabama beat the 12-0 team ... that lost Brock Bowers along the way. Still an great feat, but not the one they are droning on about.

IF WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT FLORIDA STATE-FLORIDA, THEN WE CAN TALK ALABAMA-AUBURN

Remember that Tate Rodemaker, the Noles' backup quarterback, played in the Florida game but not the Louisville game. He is planned to be back by the time their bowl is to be played.

So there are some pointing to the Florida game (a FSU win, 24-15) as proof that Florida State isn't championship worthy. Rodemaker isn't capable of putting the team on his back and leading them to a title. Yet no one really talks about what happened that same day when Alabama needed a 4th and 31 conversion to beat an Auburn team that just the week before lost 31-10 at home to New Mexico State. If Florida State looked rough, certainly Alabama did to. 

OKAY, SO WHY IS LIBERTY PLAYING IN A NEW YEAR'S SIX GAME, THEN?

The rankings don't just pick the top four teams for the playoff, but also selects who the top Group of 5 champion is. In this ranking, Liberty ... the 13-0 champion of Conference USA ... instead of SMU. Liberty finished one spot ahead of SMU, meaning they get to play Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl while SMU gets Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. Liberty had the 16th easiest strength of schedule in the nation. Meanwhile one of SMU's two losses were to Oklahoma.

So if Alabama gets ahead of Florida State despite FSU's undefeated record, then why did Liberty get rewarded for their undefeated record even though it was against a really bad schedule? 



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