Who Should Be Flexed Into SNF In Week 18?

It's that time to guess what Week 18 will be flexed into the Final Game of the season -- the NBC's Sunday Night Football slot. It is typically a game that means something with the hope that both teams have something to play for. Now, the NFL is set up a little bit different this season as there will be two Saturday games, the Sunday Night game and then the rest on Sunday afternoon. Presumably the two Saturday games will matter to seeding or two games that matter to each other.

Anyway, which game could it be?

IT DEFINITELY WON'T BE

Jets at Patriots: Two teams that have already moved on to the 2024 season.

IT LIKELY WON'T BE

Chiefs at Chargers: While there is some seeding implications for the Chiefs, the AFC West should be locked up for them and the NFL doesn't want their final game to be where the Chargers are playing in it. LA has already fired their coach and is playing with a backup QB.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Tampa could have the NFC South already locked up and this game is sort of a throwaway. Even if Tampa Bay doesn't have the division locked up, this will be dependent on the Falcons-Saints game and Carolina shouldn't be on that type of stage.

Jaguars at Titans: The Titans are done, and the Jags could have the division won by then. If they don't, it still gets tied up with the Texans-Colts game which would determine the division champ ... or who makes the playoffs. As you'll read later, that game could have more importance.

Lions at Vikings: There's seeding to play for by the Lions. The Vikings are on the outside looking for the playoffs. That's not a likely contender for the SNF spot. 

Bears at Packers: Chicago is out and Green Bay is on the outside looking in. While this could be a very entertaining game to watch, it isn't worthy of SNF. 

Broncos at Raiders: There is an outside chance that a playoff berth could be on the line, but it probably won't be. 

IT'S IN THE CONVERSATION

Browns at Bengals: If the Bengals beat the Chiefs this week and have a win-and-in status for an AFC playoff spot, then this could get the nod. The issue is the Browns. Cleveland could have that No. 5 seed wrapped up and therefore no need to play their starters for this game. The NFL doesn't want that on its prime time showcase.  

Cowboys at Commanders: Look, TV loves the Cowboys and that's why this game gets placed here. Last season, Washington beat Dallas in a game they really needed in the regular season finale in Sam Howell's first start. The NFC's race for the top seed is an interesting battle with the Eagles and Niners. More than likely, this game and the Eagles-Giants game will be played concurrently. If they put them both a 4:30pm, they can also bring in the Niners game.

Eagles at Giants: If you read the Cowboys-Commanders reasoning, you get a lot of the same things here. Like I said, it would make more sense for the NFL to run the two NFC East games against each other on Sunday, or ... for FOX's ratings ... have the Dallas-Washington game at 1pm and the Philly-Giants game at 4:30pm for maximum viewership numbers. 

Falcons at Saints: This could be for the NFC South championship. Or maybe not. If the Saints beat the Buccaneers in Week 17 and the Falcons beat the Bears, this could be for the division. The problem is that the Buccaneers would still be alive as well, and it's hard to schedule this game in such an important spot and not be sure that it will matter. This likely will run Sunday alongside the Bucs-Panthers game. 

Seahawks at Cardinals: This barely gets bumped up to this category and not in the "likely not" just because of Seattle's status as holding on to the NFC's 7th seed right now. Depending on what happens in Week 17, this could be a game where the Seahawks are a key to the playoff race. But that would involve a lot of things happening at once and NBC believing the Cardinals will make this an interesting game. The NFL will have better options. 

A GOOD SHOT (OR BEING THE SATURDAY GAME)

Steelers at Ravens: The Steelers could also be in a win-and-in territory and be playing against the MVP frontrunner in one the league's better rivalries. Depending on what happens in the Ravens-Dolphins game this week, this game could be really important for Baltimore or they could have the top seed wrapped up. Like the category name, this could really be a Saturday game if the Ravens and Steelers need it.

Rams at Niners: There's a lot that can be moved around in Week 17, but this game could be a real important game in Week 18. Right now, the Niners hold the NFC's top seed, but are tied with the Cowboys, Lions and Eagles in wins. The Rams are holding one of the final spots in the playoffs, so this could be a win-and-in game for Los Angeles. It also could be for the top seed for the Niners. So this could be a game where various parts of the country (either Philadelphia or Dallas, whomever is trying to sneak into the playoffs) will be living on what the Rams do.

STRONG CASE

Bills at Dolphins: If the Bills win in Week 17 and the Dolphins lose, this game will be for the AFC East championship. If that's the case, this will be the game put on NBC. The weather will be nice is South Florida, it is one of the NFL's great rivalries and it has Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa going against each other. Even if the Bills falter to the Patriots, this game could be for Buffalo's playoff lives. If Miami beats Baltimore this week, this still could be for hanging on to the AFC's top seed. This is the favorite to be that final game.

Texans at Colts: Depending on what happens in Week 17, this could be your classic game where the winner is in the playoffs and the loser is out. The game could also be for the AFC South title. It could also tie in for either the Bengals, Steelers or Bills are interested in the result to see if they are in the playoffs. While lacking the star power of Bills-Dolphins, if this is directly for a playoff spot, the NFL rather have this. Plus having CJ Stroud, one of the great rookie debuts in history, and the Indianapolis Colts, one of the great surprises this season, on center stage would be outstanding. 

No Matter If You Thought Florida State Or Alabama Should Be In, The Selection Committee Got It Wrong

So the College Football Selection Committee decided on Sunday to leave out Florida State, the ACC champion who went 13-0 and beat SEC teams LSU and Florida along the way. In their place was Alabama, a 12-1 team who beat Georgia in the SEC championship but lost at home to Texas earlier in the season. 

Since then there has been great debate about what was the right thing to do. Was putting Alabama in right since they are the better team? Or should they put in an undefeated Power 5 champion who lost their starting quarterback to a broken leg? Obviously the committee decided to do the former. While that may have been the right thing to do, their reasoning and justification is wrong.

I'm not saying that Alabama shouldn't be in or that Florida State should. I am here to argue the argument or why the Selection Committee did what they did. They like the use talking point to justify what they did, but they don't make much sense when you look at the entire picture. 

JORDAN TRAVIS IS OUT

Their main justification is that quarterback Justin Travis broke his leg. The Heisman hopeful was having a fantastic season but broke his leg against North Alabama ... what should have been a cupcake game wedged between two rivalry games turned into what literally made their season. In that game and in the following week against Florida, their second string quarterback played. The Seminoles would beat North Alabama, 58-13, and Florida, 24-15. 

In the Florida game, however, the second string QB took a hit to a head and entered the concussion protocol. He wasn't released by the time they faced Louisville in the ACC championship game in Charlotte. So a freshman started the game and it was ... well ... meh. But the Noles did win, 16-6.

When the four playoff teams were announced, committee chair Boo Corrigan said that they didn't feel Florida State was a playoff team without Travis. They said they felt Alabama was better.  Fine. That is part of the criteria of considering teams.

FLORIDA STATE'S STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

After the Travis point is out, people start pointing to Florida State's strength of schedule ... which was around 55th in the country. Here's the thing about strength of schedule: it can be heavily skewed by a lot of factors outside of a team's control. As a perfect example, the ACC title showdown with Louisville should have been against a top ten team, but the Cardinals laid a big egg against Kentucky in their regular season finale. That game hurt Florida State. So did the fact that the ACC's lower tier of teams are frankly worse than the SEC's. But the Noles won every one of them, including games against SEC teams LSU (at a neutral site) and Florida (at Gainsville). For context, No. 9 Missouri only beat Florida by two at home. 

This point will come up in a bit. 

BUT WHY IS FLORIDA STATE RANKED 5TH?

But then why is Florida State ranked 5th in the final CFP rankings? If you ranked Alabama ahead of Florida State because you think they are better, then wouldn't you also feel that Georgia (ranked 6th) is better too? Heck, No. 7 Ohio State would be better. So would No. 8 Oregon. Ya know, the same Oregon who were 10-point favorites against Washington in the Pac-12 championship game? Washington won that contest. 

If you ask, "why does that matter" then you are missing the entire point of rankings ... especially the College Football Playoff rankings. If you're top priority is to rank who the top 25 teams in the country are then do just that. Especially when you justify putting Alabama ahead of Florida State by saying that they are better right now. You aren't ranking by resumes or records ... but by the eye test of who you think is better.  Fine.

THEN WHY DIDN'T YOU ACTUALLY PICK THE FOUR BEST TEAMS?

If you picked Alabama because they are one of the four best teams and not recognizing Florida State (who, by the way, had a Strength of Record of No. 3 in the nation), then why do we have the four teams we have? To me, Georgia is still one of the four best teams in the nation. In fact ... if this means anything to you ... Georgia would be strong favorites over all four teams that are actually in the playoff. You could make a fantastic argument that Georgia, Alabama, Michigan and Ohio State are really the four best teams in the country.  Ohio State has the toughest strength of schedule and Georgia, well, we discussed their qualifications. 

STOP MENTIONING GEORGIA'S 29-GAME WINNING STREAK

Please don't tell anyone that Alabama got in because they beat a team that had won their last 29 games. No. No. No. It's true that the school has won 29 straight, but not that team. If we say that Florida State isn't the same team now as they were earlier in the year when Travis was healthy, then you are aware that the Georgia team that played in 2023 is not the team that played in 2021 or 2022. Stetson Bennett wasn't on that field in 2023. Neither were all those guys who are now playing in the NFL on Sundays. No, Alabama beat the 12-0 team ... that lost Brock Bowers along the way. Still an great feat, but not the one they are droning on about.

IF WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT FLORIDA STATE-FLORIDA, THEN WE CAN TALK ALABAMA-AUBURN

Remember that Tate Rodemaker, the Noles' backup quarterback, played in the Florida game but not the Louisville game. He is planned to be back by the time their bowl is to be played.

So there are some pointing to the Florida game (a FSU win, 24-15) as proof that Florida State isn't championship worthy. Rodemaker isn't capable of putting the team on his back and leading them to a title. Yet no one really talks about what happened that same day when Alabama needed a 4th and 31 conversion to beat an Auburn team that just the week before lost 31-10 at home to New Mexico State. If Florida State looked rough, certainly Alabama did to. 

OKAY, SO WHY IS LIBERTY PLAYING IN A NEW YEAR'S SIX GAME, THEN?

The rankings don't just pick the top four teams for the playoff, but also selects who the top Group of 5 champion is. In this ranking, Liberty ... the 13-0 champion of Conference USA ... instead of SMU. Liberty finished one spot ahead of SMU, meaning they get to play Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl while SMU gets Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. Liberty had the 16th easiest strength of schedule in the nation. Meanwhile one of SMU's two losses were to Oklahoma.

So if Alabama gets ahead of Florida State despite FSU's undefeated record, then why did Liberty get rewarded for their undefeated record even though it was against a really bad schedule?