Sportz' NCAA Tournament Recap - First Round, Day 2

Just a quick recap of what I saw in my Sportz Room -- filled with TVs that I can watch all four games going on at the same time.

GAME OF THE DAY: Northern Iowa vs Texas. The night session had a few great games.  The St. Joe's-Cincinnati and Notre Dame-Michigan games were awesome.  But the Panthers and Longhorns had a back and forth affair that had a big shot by Texas to tie the game ... but a half-court buzzer beater to win it.  In my life ... and I am nearly 41 years old ... I don't remember a half court shot to win a game during the NCAA tournament.  Stunning.

UPSET OF THE DAY: Middle Tennessee vs Michigan State. Despite being a No. 2 seed, Michigan State was most likely the 2nd or 3rd favorite to win this tournament.  They were experienced, they had a POY candidate, they have Tom Izzo and his historically great tournament resume.  But they just didn't do what they needed to today and became just the 8th No. 2 seed to lose to a 15-seed in tournament history.

CONFERENCE OF THE DAY: Big East. A day after Seton Hall was upset, the Big East had a pretty good day.  Villanova and Xavier flexed their muscle and put away their opponents.

CONFERENCE WITH A BAD DAY: Pac 12. Another tough day for the Pac-12.  California and Oregon State both lost as the better seeds.  They weren't alone, though.  The Big 12 had the same thing happen (West Virginia, Texas).  

DUD OF THE DAY: Texas A&M vs Green Bay. People were giving Green Bay some run as a team that could be a possible Cinderella.  Well, they really didn't come close to that against an Aggies team that seems dialed in.

DOMINANT PERFORMANCE OF THE DAY: Oregon. The Pac-12 may be crumbling in the Dance, but Oregon, ya know that weakest No. 1 seed, pounded Holy Cross to easily advance.  In a day filled with upsets and close calls, the Ducks swam right by.

UNDERLYING STORYLINE OF THE DAY: Upsets. Yesterday I said that it wasn't shocking to see the 7 "upsets".  Well, today was a bit more shocking.  Michigan State losing in the first round?  What?  I mean, seriously?  Then West Virginia ... another team I thought would go far ... gets taken out by Stephen F Austin.  Hawaii wins their first ever NCAA Tournament game by beating a Cal team that has NBA players on it?  Then Syracuse, who many thought shouldn't make the tournament, goes out and pounds Dayton.  What a couple of days!

FINAL THOUGHTS:

*THANK YOU NCAA for changing up the floors.  I have complained for years that these blue and black plain floors were horrible on television and it was so difficult to tell where you were watching a game.  I love the floor plans and the colors and the city name prominently displayed.  My only gripe now is that I wish the color scheme matched the arena, city or host team.  Take Raleigh, for example.  The floor colors are purple, dark blue and light blue.  If you live in Raleigh, those are the worst colors imaginable.  Purple represents rival East Carolina, dark blue reps Duke and light blue ... well that's the hated Tar Heels.  Have it red for them.  Maybe Des Moines could have had a gold color for host Iowa State and even the nearby Hawkeyes.  Providence could have used the black and Denver could have the light blue. 

*The ACC is 6-1 right now, with only Pitt losing (and that was a close one to Wisconsin).  UNC, Duke, Miami and Virginia play again tomorrow and all should be favored.

*Man Doug Gottlieb has a weaselly voice.  

Sportz' NCAA Tournament Recap - First Round, Day 1

Was it really an upset when Yale beat Baylor?

Just a quick recap of what I saw in my Sportz Room -- filled with TVs that I can watch all four games going on at the same time.

GAME OF THE DAY: Providence vs USC. There were so many candidates, but I'm going here because the entire game was compelling.  It was close throughout and the ending was a bit shocking.  The Friars looked cooked, but USC just couldn't make free throws and made other questionable decisions.  Providence took full advantage and won on a layup after a missed defensive assignment by the Trojans.

UPSET OF THE DAY: Arkansas-Little Rock vs Purdue. This was up there for game of the day, but the "game" of it really happened with about five minutes left.  UALR went on a huge run to send the game into overtime, including the shot of the day to tie it.  Josh Hagins' 31 electric points will be remembered for years.

CONFERENCE OF THE DAY: ACC. The ACC went 4-0 today, with North Carolina, Virginia, Miami and Duke all winning.  That isn't to say that there wasn't some drama in those games, but the ACC is moving on.

CONFERENCE WITH A BAD DAY: Pac 12. The Pac-12 went 1-3 on the day with only Utah advancing.  Arizona were busy being blown out by Wichita State while USC was coughing up a win to Providence.  Colorado lost to UConn, meaning there were three seed upsets suffered by the Pac-12.  

DUD OF THE DAY: Kentucky vs Stony Brook. It happens, but with the mid-majors putting up fights everywhere else you'd think Stony Brook would at least stay in the game by halftime.  They didn't.

DOMINANT PERFORMANCE OF THE DAY: Kansas. The top overall seed did what it was supposed to do and flushed away Austin Peay.

UNDERLYING STORYLINE OF THE DAY: Really, this is what we thought. There were 7 seed upsets today ... but were there any real shockers?  I mean, this is what we kinda thought was going to happen.  All over the place, Yale, Arkansas-Little Rock and Wichita State were looked at as good bets for "upsets".  Gonzaga was also looked at as a good team to win their game.  Plus three of the upsets were 9-seeds over 8-seeds.  All the big dogs we've been advancing with ease on our brackets won.  So was this all that big a shock?

FINAL THOUGHTS:

*THANK YOU NCAA for changing up the floors.  I have complained for years that these blue and black plain floors were horrible on television and it was so difficult to tell where you were watching a game.  I love the floor plans and the colors and the city name prominently displayed.  My only gripe now is that I wish the color scheme matched the arena, city or host team.  Take Raleigh, for example.  The floor colors are purple, dark blue and light blue.  If you live in Raleigh, those are the worst colors imaginable.  Purple represents rival East Carolina, dark blue reps Duke and light blue ... well that's the hated Tar Heels.  Have it red for them.  Maybe Des Moines could have had a gold color for host Iowa State and even the nearby Hawkeyes.  Providence could have used the black and Denver could have the light blue. 

*I am really convinced that the play-in games give teams a bit of advantage.  They are tournament warm, so to speak.  Today, Wichita State looked dominant at times against Arizona while Florida Gulf Coast caught a sleepy North Carolina squad in the first half of their game.  It will be interesting to see how Holy Cross and Michigan come out on Friday.

*On my Bubble Watch, I was really skeptical of the Pac-12.  They did a great job fluffing up their RPI so they looked good to the committee.  It worked.  But you got to play the games.  USC looked like they were trying to lose at the end of their game with Providence.  Arizona didn't even look like they came to play against Wichita State.  UConn really took it to Colorado in the 2nd half of their win over the Buffs.  Now, everyone's quick conclusion is that Oregon is a really week No. 1 seed and that isn't true.  However, they better understand how.

*I really hate that the Ivy League is starting a 4-team conference tournament.  I mean, whatever, but I think the reason the Ivy has done so well in the NCAA Tournament is that it does send its best team to the dance every year.  Imagine this tournament if UAB, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Akron, San Diego State and St. Mary's also got to join the party?

Sportz Assassin's Midwest Region Preview

Chicago's "Bean"

TEAM TO BEAT: Virginia. The Cavaliers are the only No. 1 seed to not win either a regular season or conference tournament title (they finished 2nd to North Carolina in both instances).  But the Cavs have one of the most efficient offenses in the country to go along with that stout Pack Line defense.  Malcolm Brogdon has had one of the best seasons in the nation and is so tough to guard.  With limited amount of time to prepare, teams will have a tough time against the Cavs. 

TEAM THAT WILL WIN THE REGION: Michigan State. Sparty won the Big Ten tournament title and has possible POY candidate Denzel Valentine.  Michigan State is notoriously known as a tough tournament squad and Tom Izzo one of the best tournament coaches.  This is a great shooting team that passes well and plays tough.

TEAM TO WATCH FOR (LESS THAN A NO. 3 SEED): Purdue. The Boilermakers are tough, physical and big.  They are also not scared of a team like Virginia or Michigan State.  

YOUR CINDERELLA: Gonzaga. The irony is that the Zags may be more dangerous when no one expects anything from them.  Mark Few still is a pretty darn good coach and Kyle Wiltjer is still a pretty darn good player.  The Bulldogs have less room for error than usual, but they can pull off a few upsets and get to the Sweet 16.  

WORST SEEDING ERROR: Syracuse. I am not sure they should even be in the tournament, but here they are.  The fact that they are a No. 10 seed is stunning.  How are they not in a First Four game?  The Orange have lost 5 of 6 with a shaky resume yet somehow made it in.    

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE: Michigan State. Well, there are some interesting home deals.  Virginia in Raleigh and Utah in Denver.  But when this thing gets to Chicago, that's where Michigan State, Purdue and Iowa State will shine.  Still, I think the mix of St. Louis and Chicago is the best here.

MUST WATCH GAME: Seton Hall vs Gonzaga. Gonzaga is my Cinderella, but Seton Hall is also a team who could make an unlikely run in this region.  They are a really, really, really good team who can do some damage.  There are next level players in this one and Gonzaga could have a better fan advantage in Denver.

MUST WATCH (POTENTIAL) SECOND ROUND GAME: Iowa State vs Purdue. Purdue's big front line against Georges Niang.

Sportz Assassin's South Region Preview

Louisville Slugger Museum in Louisville, KY

TEAM TO BEAT: Kansas. The Jayhawks have been among the top of the rankings all year long.  They have everything you want in a champion.  Experience, athleticism, frontcourt, backcourt.  They aren't an NBA-talent heavy team, but they play so well together.  A team will have to beat them to advance; Kansas won't beat themselves. 

TEAM THAT WILL WIN THE REGION: Kansas. There are some good teams in the South, but none of them are Kansas.  Well, except for, ya now, Kansas.

TEAM TO WATCH FOR (LESS THAN A NO. 3 SEED): Maryland. Talent wise, this may be the best team in the region.  Diamond Stone can be a beast.  Melo Trimble can take over games.  Guys like Rasheed Sulaimon and Robert Carter can wreck havoc.  The Terps can be all or nothing in this tournament.  

YOUR CINDERELLA: Temple. This bracket has a few nominees, but the Owls are my pick.  Temple won the AAC regular season title (even over heavy favorite SMU).  They won key conference games (sweeping Cincinnati and UConn during the season) and have played North Carolina, Utah, Wisconsin and Butler. They get Iowa first who have lost 5 of 6 and are struggling mightily.  If the Owls can win that, they could get Villanova in a huge Philly matchup.   

WORST SEEDING ERROR: Hawai'i. Hawai'i comes in as a 13th seed, yet are 27-5 with two of those losses to Oklahoma (by just 3) and Texas Tech.    

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE: Kansas. Really, no one has a great homecourt advantage here.  Villanova and Temple play up the road in Brooklyn, but then would travel to Louisville.  So KU's trek to Des Moines and Louisville makes them the home favorites.

MUST WATCH GAME: Colorado vs UConn. Does anyone want to miss a UConn game right now?  The Huskies are a firecracker.  But Colorado is that fundamentally sound team that won't make the kind of mistakes that UConn feeds off of.

MUST WATCH (POTENTIAL) SECOND ROUND GAME: California vs Maryland. The Miami-Arizona game would be nice too, but Cal-Maryland may have more NBA talent on the floor at once in the entire region.  Heck, maybe the nation.  .

Sportz Assassin's East Region Preview

Philadelphia hosts the NCAA East Regional Final

TEAM TO BEAT: North Carolina. The Tar Heels were the preseason No. 1 team and while they've had a bit of a rocky season, they still ended up with a top seed.  The Heels ended the season winning at Duke, then demolishing Notre Dame in the ACC tournament semifinals before beating fellow No. 1 seed Virginia for the ACC crown.  A very experienced team that owns the paint, the Heels could give Roy Williams his third national championship.  

TEAM THAT WILL WIN THE REGION: North Carolina. North Carolina have been a great rebounding team who dominates the paint.  The roll with seniors Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson, while guys like Joel Berry, Isiah Hicks and Justin Jackson are coming up big in their roles.  However, their recent attention to defense may vault them to a national championship.  The way they dominated Notre Dame and slowed down ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon makes this a scary team.

TEAM TO WATCH FOR (LESS THAN A NO. 3 SEED): Kentucky. Mock John Calipari all you want, but he tends to have his Wildcats surging heading into the tournament.  Their backcourt may be the best in the nation.  The key is that frontline.  There's talent there, but it doesn't always show.  With teams like Indiana, North Carolina and Xavier possibly standing in their way to yet another Final Four, Kentucky must have these guys show up.  If they do, they are one of the better teams in the country.  

YOUR CINDERELLA: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks haven't lost a game in 2016.  They went 18-0 in Southland play.  Sure, none of their 27 wins were against anyone of note, but they can score (81 ppg).  If they can find a way to upset West Virginia, then they can topple either Notre Dame (who we last saw getting pummeled by North Carolina) or the Michigan/Tulsa winner.  

WORST SEEDING ERROR: Kentucky. Kentucky should have been a No. 3, and while it doesn't seem like a big deal that they are a just one seed down, it really is.  Instead of being in the lower half of the East bracket, Kentucky will have to likely face Indiana (who is also seeded wrong) and then North Carolina.  As a No. 3, they would have had Notre Dame/Michigan/Tulsa in the second round and the Xavier in the Sweet 16.  Quite a bit of difference.    

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE: North Carolina. Really, no one has the advantage when they get to Philadelphia, outside of maybe Pitt, so UNC's first weekend trip down the street to Raleigh is huge.  No other East Region school is near their pod site, but Carolina is a county over.

MUST WATCH GAME: USC vs Providence. This one is great.  USC has six guys averaging double figures.  Providence has NBA talent in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.  Should be a great game between two teams that had higher hopes for this season but get a shot at each other.

MUST WATCH (POTENTIAL) SECOND ROUND GAME: Indiana vs Kentucky. The last time we saw these two play was a couple of years ago when Indiana hit a buzzer beating three pointer to topple the Wildcats.  Since then, some bad blood between the programs and their series ended.  You know both fanbases will be looking forward to this.

Sportz Assassin's West Region Preview

Disneyland in Anaheim, CA

TEAM TO BEAT: Oregon. The Ducks are probably the least known of the No. 1 seeds.  They won the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles.  They are athletic and have weapons all over, including forward Dylan Brooks. 

TEAM THAT WILL WIN THE REGION: Oklahoma. The Sooners will go as far as Buddy Hield will take them.  I think that is to the Final Four.  Their road to the Elite 8 is doable, and they have the horses to down Oregon or Duke in that round.  Get to Houston and they have a puncher's chance at cutting down the nets.

TEAM TO WATCH FOR (LESS THAN A NO. 3 SEED): Duke. What?  Yeah, this is region full of hit or misses.  Duke is the ultimate high risk/reward team.  There is a ton of talent ... just not a very deep stable of it.  Grayson Allen is tough to defend as is Brandon Ingram. The key is how tired is this team?  They are really only six deep and have huffed and puffed to the finish line.  However, they can score so efficiently and have the know-how to go deep in this dance despite people writing them off.  

YOUR CINDERELLA: VCU. Shaka Smart may not be there anymore, but the Rams still can stifle teams.  Oregon State is a team that can be forced into bad shots and bad turnovers.  Just the kind of ingredients for an upset.  Now, could they do the same thing against Buddy Hield?  

WORST SEEDING ERROR: Oregon State. The Beavers went from a tenuous bubble situation to a No. 7 seed?  How?  Because the Pac-12 knew how to fluff up their RPI numbers and OSU got a huge benefit from it.    

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE: Oregon. There are only three west coast teams in this West Region (Oregon, Oregon State, Cal St Bakersfield).  Bakersfield would love to be in Anaheim, but they won't get there.  Sure Oklahoma gets to play in OKC for the first weekend, but Oregon gets to hang in Spokane before going down to SoCal.  Plus the arena that the Region finals will be play is home of the NHL Ducks.  I like the Ducks' situation.

MUST WATCH GAME: Baylor vs Yale. You are dying for a 12-5 upset, and this could be it.

MUST WATCH (POTENTIAL) SECOND ROUND GAME: Texas vs Texas A&M. If this was a football game, there would be more pub.  But like a possible Indiana-Kentucky game in the East, this would feature two fierce rivals who saw their rivalry end with the conference realignment.  Add into the fact that this game would be in Oklahoma City and you'll have both fanbases at it.

Tournament Selection Committee Sure Didn't Like the Big Ten

We can all bitch, piss and moan about the NCAA tournament bracket.  How is Tulsa in?  What does Monmouth have to do?  Oregon and Virginia are No. 1 seeds?  How is Tulsa in?  Syracuse wasn't too bubbly?  How is Tulsa in?  And How is Tulsa in?

One thing that is clear is that the committee didn't like the Big Ten too much, but sure loved some Pac-12.  Sure, the whole Oregon got a No. 1 seed instead of Michigan State is the marquee, but it rolls down the line.

Here is the major six conferences and their seeding:

ACC
1-North Carolina
1-Virginia
3-Miami
4-Duke
6-Notre Dame
10-Pittsburgh
10-Syracuse

BIG EAST
2-Villanova
2-Xavier
6-Seton Hall
9-Providence
9-Butler

BIG 12
1-Kansas
2-Oklahoma
3-West Virginia
4-Iowa State
5-Baylor
6-Texas
8-Texas Tech

BIG TEN
2-Michigan State
5-Indiana
5-Maryland
5-Purdue
7-Iowa
7-Wisconsin
11-Michigan

PAC 12
1-Oregon
3-Utah
4-California
6-Arizona
7-Oregon State
8-USC
8-Colorado

SOUTHEASTERN
3-Texas A&M
4-Kentucky

Look at the Big Ten.  Not only did Sparty not get a top seed, but the rest of the conference is lower than expected.  Indiana, Maryland and Purdue are all No. 5 seeds.  I always try to think of it as the top seeds are the 1-4 best teams, the 2 seeds are 5 thru 8, and so on.  So that means those Big Ten schools are about the 17th thru 20th best?  Sorry, but I'm not buying it.  I don't even like the Big Ten but it was obvious that the committee really didn't like them.

The Annoying Things That Bracket People Do ...

It is bracket time again, so people all across our great land are taking pen or pencil to brackets at hoping for the best.  They reason, they debate, they flip a coin.  Most of all, they think they are correct.  They go to blogs and websites to get that last bit of info to make their selections.

This isn't that post.

This is for those people who collect the brackets.  Those people who tirelessly print the brackets, make copies, convince people to enter a sheet in, chase people down for their money and enter in all the results into some sort of program ... or do the scoring themselves.

Here are the people you are likely to deal with this week and this is just to let you know, you're not alone.

WHAT'S THIS?:  I love when you hand someone a bracket and they respond this way.  If you don't know by now, you never will.  

THE "FLORDIA" PEOPLE:  I love when people cannot spell Florida.  It is sometimes "Floirda" or "Florda" but usually I see "Flordia".  First off, you should be able to spell every single state with the exception of Massachusetts and Connecticut with relative ease.  Plus, it is only printed in type in the line right next to your dumb spelling.  

THE NUMBERS PEOPLE: I love those people that refuse to write the names of the teams in the lines but instead write their seedings.  So you  get those 1s and 5s and 12s all over the place so it is awesome when you get to enter that sheet into a database.  Plus I love when they have two #1s facing off in the Final Four and write "1" as the winner.  Thanks.

I'LL GET THE MONEY TO YOU ... :  We all know this.  Those people who just never have the $5 or whatever to pay.  It is the Final Four and you are still telling me to wait until payday?  Great.  God forbid they actually have a shot to win because they'll just hang onto their money with the ol' "well, you'd be giving it back to me anyway" jive.  Oh, and those late payers are usually the ones who are up your butt when they do win and complainin when all the money hadn't been collected yet.  

2016 Sportz' Bubble Watch: Selection Sunday

Today is the day when we find out the 2016 NCAA Tournament bracket which will consume our lives over the next three weeks.  Who got in?  Who got snubbed?  What was the committee thinking?  Are the No. 1 seeds correct?  Who got the easiest road?  What is the toughest region?

So what are we looking at tonight?

BUBBLE WATCH

Which teams get in?  According to my bubble, these are the last six in:  South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Temple, St. Mary's and Monmouth.  Just missing is Syracuse, Vanderbilt and Michigan.

This is a tight bubble.  South Carolina could see themselves on the way out due to their sluggish end to the season and horrid non-conference schedule.  St. Mary's and Monmouth may miss due to their mid-major statuses holding them back.  Vanderbilt was a pretty solid team until the last week or so.

Still, I see as the matchups in the First Four as Pittsburgh-Monmouth and Temple-St. Mary's.

All I know is that each of these teams is rooting for UConn to beat Memphis in the American Athletic Conference championship today or there will be one less spot for them in the dance.

TOP SEEDS

The only thing known here is that Kansas and North Carolina will be No. 1 seeds.  Both won their regular season and conference tournament titles and are locked at the top.  The other two seeds come down to a three team race.  Michigan State should be the third No. 1 seed, provided they win the Big Ten tournament title today.  They may still see a top seed even with a loss, though.  Oregon won the Pac-12 regular season and conference titles as well.  They will be looked at very closely.  So will Virginia, who finished 2nd to the Tar Heels in the ACC regular season and tournament title.  I feel that the Ducks and Cavaliers will both be in the West Region, with Oregon getting that top seed.

POD SYSTEM

The pods should be very kind to teams this year ... except Michigan State.

Of the possible No. 1 seeds, Kansas will get to play in Des Moines, North Carolina and Virginia will go to Raleigh and Oregon goes to Spokane.  But Michigan State?  Will it be St. Louis?  Not really a close city.

Go a little further down and Utah will go to Denver, Oklahoma to Oklahoma City, Villanova to Brooklyn and Xavier to St. Louis.

2016 Sportz' Bubble Watch: March 12th

With many conference tournaments ending today while others having their semifinals, it is time to merge the bubble into one pile.  First, let's take a look at who are in right now.  The locks, the looking goods and the one-bid leagues (*-denotes "looking good"):

LOCKS/LOOKING GOOD (38)

ACC:  North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, Notre Dame, Duke
BIG EAST:  Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence*, Butler*
BIG TEN:  Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin
BIG 12:  Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech*
PAC 12: Oregon, Arizona, Utah, California, Colorado, USC*, Oregon State*
SEC:  Texas A&M, Kentucky
AMERICAN: Cincinnati*, UConn*
ATLANTIC 10:  Dayton, St. Joseph's, VCU*
MISSOURI VALLEY: Wichita State*

ONE BID LEAGUES (24):

IVY: Yale
OHIO VALLEY: Austin Peay
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG SOUTH: UNC-Asheville
COLONIAL: UNC-Wilmington
MISSOURI VALLEY: Northern IowaWCC: GonzagaMAAC:  Iona
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
HORIZON: Green Bay
NORTHEAST: Farleigh Dickenson
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
PATRIOT: Holy Cross
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG WEST: Hawaii
CONFERENCE USA: MTSU
MAC: Buffalo
MEAC: Hampton
MW: Fresno State
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SWAC: Southern
WAC: Cal St-Bakersfield
SUN BELT: Arkansas Little Rock/Louisiana Monroe

BUBBLE TEAMS (6)

So, the bubble teams.  According to my calculations, there are 7 spots left which is a lot at this late date.

South Carolina (IN):  The Gamecocks were near locks a month ago but their weak non-conference schedule has now mixed with bad losses.  Losing to Georgia in the SEC quarterfinals puts them smack dab on the bubble.  I can see a world where the committee passes on South Carolina.  Still, I still see them in.

St. Bonaventure (IN):  St. Bonnie was looking good a week ago, but losing to Davidson in the A-10 tournament really stings.  With teams like Michigan and LSU still playing ... plus the possibility of San Diego State losing the MW final ... the Bonnies will be a bit nervous tomorrow.

Pittsburgh (IN): Looking around these bubble teams, Pitt has better wins than most.  But they've also had some puzzling losses.  Pitt looked great a few weeks ago, but they've spiraled a bit of late with some large losing margins.

Temple (IN):  Temple won the AAC regular season and swept the regular season series with UConn and Cincinnati ... who are both in on my board.  By that, plus a non-con slate that included Nova, UNC, Utah and Wisconsin ... uh, where they lost to all of them ... should slide them in.

St. Mary's (IN):  They swept Gonzaga and made the WCC final where they lost to the Zags.  This is a very good team that should eye test fine for the tournament.  However, are their numbers good enough?  This is a classic case of giving a mid-major a chance over a middling Power 5 team.

Monmouth (IN):  Perfect example here.  They beat UCLA, USC, Notre Dame and Georgetown.  Sure, the Bruins and Hoyas aren't going to the tournament, but that wasn't Monmouth's fault when they scheduled them.  They've won 13 true road games and played most of their slate away from home.  No offense to anyone below, but do I need to see what Michigan or Florida do against tournament teams or let this fireball in?  Let them play!

Vanderbilt (OUT):  This is the truest bubble team.  Vandy was on cloud nine beating Kentucky a few weeks back. Some bad losses and being ousted by Tennessee in their first SEC tournament game have them smack dab on the bubble.  It wasn't like the SEC was a really good league.  If you look above, you see that this will be an ideology of mid-major versus a middle of the road major.

Michigan (OUT):  The Wolverines got a huge win over top seeded Indiana.  It still doesn't get them in.  The Wolverines gave their all against Purdue but was it enough?  Nope.  Again, I think the NCAA isn't going to put them in.

San Diego State (OUT):  All year, the Aztecs have been the lone Mountain West school who could gain an at large bid.  Many people, like me, felt they had to win the MW tournament to get in.  They lost to Fresno State in the final and it looks like SDSU will sit this tournament out.  If you think the MW is bad, then there is nothing on the Aztecs' resume that jumps out.  They really have beaten no one outside of Cal.  They lost to Grand Canyon and beat San Diego Christian College by 10.  They just don't have it.

Syracuse (OUT):  The Orange are hoping the committee decides to wipe out those nine games that Jim Boeheim was suspended and Syracuse went 4-5.  They would also hope the committee would forget about them closing out the season by losing 5 of their last 6 -- all of them with Boeheim.  The Orange are out!

Florida (OUT):  They just don't look like a tournament team.  I know that's subjective, but they haven't been playing that well and the SEC has looked like the worst of the Power 5 leagues.  Nothing says they deserve to be in ahead of a few of the OUT teams anyway.

Memphis (OUT):  Not really a bubble team, but if they beat UConn in the American Conference final, they will get an automatic bid and steal a spot from one of these bubble teams.

2016 Sportz' Bubble Watch: March 11th

Okay. I've been doing my whole Sportz' Bubble Watch for a few years now and I think it is time to start back up. With only a few weeks left in the season before conference tournaments, let's see how the bubble looks.

So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. Locks are teams that I think are in no matter what.  Looking good are teams that are in, barring a total collapse.  I split the bubble teams either In or Out; self explanatory.  Also there's a spot for teams that need a miracle.  No more losses and maybe a deep conference tournament run.

I figure there are 21 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 11 conferences that could net multiple bids. So who should be going?


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
LOCKS:  Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Miami, Notre Dame
LOOKING GOOD:  Pittsburgh
BUBBLE IN:  
BUBBLE OUT:  Syracuse
MIRACLE:  

The ACC is virtually done.  Pitt beat Cuse and hung with UNC for a while which should put them in.  Syracuse is really on the bubble.  Their record doesn't really warrant a bid (counting the conference tournament, the Orange were 9-10 in ACC play) and I think Boeheim's absence should not be brushed aside since it was a penalty against the program.  Outside the bubble?  Well the story is if North Carolina or Virginia can nab No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.  Right now they both look like it, however one of these teams (if not both) will lose in the next two days.

BIG EAST

LOCKS:  Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall
LOOKING GOOD:  Providence
BUBBLE IN:  Butler
BUBBLE OUT:   
MIRACLE:  

Providence's win over Butler pushed them comfortably in.  Not only did they get a win over a fellow bubble team, they'll get to play Villanova which looks good on their resume, win or lose.  Butler hasn't been blazing heading into the tournament, but they'll be in the field.  Outside the bubble?  Villanova is on pace for a No. 1 seed ... but could Xavier be in the running if they topple the Wildcats in the Big East final?

BIG TEN

LOCKS:  Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin
LOOKING GOOD:  
BUBBLE IN:  
BUBBLE OUT:  Michigan, Ohio State
MIRACLE:  

Michigan and Ohio State are still alive in the Big Ten tournament after very close wins.  Their reward is facing Indiana and Michigan State, respectively.  A win there would be huge for either team and could push Michigan off the bubble and into the field.  Ohio State may yet still need some help, though, but it would be a big chip towards their ticket.  Especially since the Buckeyes have now have played Sparty three times in less than two weeks.  Outside the bubble?  Wow, has Iowa crashed over the last several weeks.  And Wisconsin losing to Nebraska in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tournament?  Not a good look.

BIG 12 CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor
LOOKING GOOD: 
BUBBLE IN:  Texas Tech
BUBBLE OUT:  
MIRACLE: 

You know, I haven't been as high on Texas Tech as others have been. They lost to lowly TCU in the first round of the Big 12 tournament.  Not a good look.  Tech is getting in off of three things.  One, that they are in the ultra competitive Big 12.  Two, their strength of schedule which is helped by being in that league.  Three, that run they had in February when they beat Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor.  But they've lost 3 of 4 and while two of those were against Kansas and West Virginia, the Mountaineers trounced them.  They also had a streak where they lost 7 of 8 games.  Again, they are getting in but I'm not as all-in on them as others. Outside the bubble?  Kansas is trending toward the overall No. 1 seed.  

PAC-12 CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  Oregon, Arizona, Utah, California, Colorado
LOOKING GOOD:  USC
BUBBLE IN:  Oregon State
BUBBLE OUT:  
MIRACLE:  

The Pac-12 is filled with inflated RPIs and all of that, but they could have 7 teams in the tournament.  Six are in after USC's beating of UCLA and close loss to Utah.  The bubbler here is Oregon State whose resume has that great RPI and SOS and no bad losses.  The Beaver have done enough to warrant a spot.  Outside the bubble?  Well, Oregon is trying to hold onto a No. 2 seed and could maybe sneak into a top seed if some bad things happen to some ACC and Big Ten teams today.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  Kentucky, Texas A&M
LOOKING GOOD:  South Carolina
IN BUBBLE:  Vanderbilt
OUT BUBBLE:  Florida 
MIRACLE:  LSU

Ugh, the SEC has done itself no favors.  South Carolina gets Georgia in the SEC quarterfinals and could really use the win.  A loss probably won't knock them out, it could kill their seeding.  Now, what about a fourth team?  Vandy looked like a good bet but then go out and lose to Tennessee in their hometown.  Florida got a big win over Arkansas and now faces top-seeded Texas A&M.  An opportunity for a huge win here.  Do that and they could make a title game appearance and secure an NCAA bid.  LSU kind of got cheated.  Sure, playing Tennessee is much easier than Vanderbilt, but the Tigers then miss out on a chance to beat a good team.  Really, they need to win the whole thing.  Outside the bubble? The best they could hope for any team to get is a No. 3 seed and that's if Kentucky wins this tournament. 

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  
LOOKING GOOD:  
IN BUBBLE:  Cincinnati, Temple
OUT BUBBLE:  UConn, Tulsa, Houston
MIRACLE: 

Quickly, the UConn-Cincy game is huge.  A UConn loss may end their hopes and secure Cincy's bid.  A UConn win puts both of them in sheer limbo.  Who knows?  I still like Cincinnati in and UConn could be close.  Temple just can't lose to USF or I think they could be done.  Sure winning the AAC regular season has merit, but this isn't a good league.  Houston and Tulsa need to get to the final to even be considered for the bubble.  Outside the bubble?  These could all be 10 or 11 seeds.  Someone has to win this league, but even the champ will be wearing the dark jerseys in the tournament next week.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE

LOCKS:  
LOOKING GOOD:  
IN BUBBLE:  San Diego State
OUT BUBBLE:  
MIRACLE: 

San Diego State is the only team that could get an at-large bid, but even that is sketchy.  Still, I think anything but a title and the Aztecs are done.

ATLANTIC 10

LOCKS:  Dayton, St. Joseph's
LOOKING GOOD:  
IN BUBBLE:  St. Bonaventure, VCU
OUT BUBBLE:  George Washington
MIRACLE: 

On the bubble, I like VCU's chances a bit more than St. Bonnie.  However, both are in right now and both have chances to boost their resumes.  The Bonnies have a tough game with Davidson today (VCU gets UMass).  Neither can afford a loss right now with so much bubble drama.  GW is still hanging in there right now.  They get St. Joe's and they know that the A-10 has historically had bubble teams go on runs and win conference titles. 

MISSOURI VALLEY, WEST COAST, MAAC

LOCKS:  Northern Iowa, Gonzaga
LOOKING GOOD:  Wichita State
IN BUBBLE:  St. Mary's, Monmouth
OUT BUBBLE:  
MIRACLE:  

Gonzaga and Northern Iowa may have "stolen" bids as St. Mary's and Wichita State could get at-large bids.  While I can never speak for the committee, I would rather see Wichita, St. Mary's and even Monmouth in the field instead of bubble teams from bigger leagues who haven't impressed me.  Still, schools like Valpo, Arkansas Little Rock and UAB probably won't get bids without league titles.  

ONE BID LEAGUES (21):

IVY: Yale
OHIO VALLEY: Austin Peay
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG SOUTH: UNC-Asheville
COLONIAL: UNC-Wilmington
MAAC:  Iona
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
HORIZON: Green Bay
NORTHEAST: Farleigh Dickenson
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
PATRIOT: Holy Cross
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook/Vermont
BIG SKY: (3/12)
BIG WEST: (3/12)
CONFERENCE USA: (3/12)
MAC: (3/12)
MEAC: (3/12)
SOUTHLAND: (3/12)
SWAC: (3/12)
WAC: (3/12)
SUN BELT: (3/13)