Heading into tonight's NBA Finals, ESPN's Brian Windhorst threw out a stat that made New York Knicks fans happy. Teams coming off a sweep that play teams coming off a Game 7 are 20-4 in the history of the playoffs. One of those teams is these New York Knicks, who came off a sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, who needed a Game 7 to oust the Detroit Pistons.
It is a nice stat, but very flawed. Just like many stats.
See, usually teams coming off of sweeps are really good teams. Many of them are top seeds. That's where the rub of a stat like this comes from me. How many in that stat category come from No. 1 seeds who swept a No. 8 seed and then play the winner of a No. 4 vs No. 5 coming off a full Game 7? We'll check that out.
TEAMS THAT COME OFF A SWEEP ARE 11-7 IN THE FINALS
But for now, let's keep it at the NBA Finals level. Since conference finals became a thing in 1971, we have had 18 teams enter the Finals after a sweep. Of those 18 teams, only 11 of them won the championship. That's an 11-7 mark in the Finals and not really that impressive of a difference. Here are those teams (*won the title):
1974 Bucks
1977 Blazers*
1982 Lakers*
1986 Celtics*
1987 Lakers*
1989 Lakers
1991 Bulls*
1996 Bulls*
1998 Jazz
1999 Spurs*
2001 Lakers*
2003 Nets
2013 Spurs
2015 Cavaliers
2017 Warriors*
2019 Warriors
2023 Nuggets*
2024 Celtics*
Looking at this list you see a few things. One is my original point -- great teams show up here. The 1986 Celtics, 1987 Lakers, 1996 Bulls, 2001 Lakers and 2017 Warriors are among the most dominant teams of all time. If you notice, we've never had two teams coming off sweeps meeting in the Finals during this timeframe. So, by definition, all teams coming off sweeps had more rest than every team they faced.
Also see that this stat tails off recently. Since those 2001 Lakers, teams coming off a sweep are only 3-4 in the Finals. This coincides with better travel, more off days between games, and a greater understanding of sleep and healthly lifestyles. If you notice, we've never had two teams coming off sweeps meeting in the Finals during this timeframe. So, by definition, all teams coming off sweeps had more rest than every team they faced ... and that record is still just 11-7.
WINDHORST'S STAT IS 5-2 IN THE NBA FINALS SINCE 1971
So let's carve both things down a bit further. Since we are using this stat to look at the 2026 Finals, let's see how the stat has held up in past Finals. It's happened just seven times since 1971. Here the are, with an "s" noting the team coming off the sweep:
1982 Lakers (s) over Sixers
1987 Lakers (s) over Celtics
1996 Bulls (s) over SuperSonics
1998 Bulls over Jazz (s)
2001 Lakers (s) over Sixers
2013 Heat over Spurs (s)
2023 Nuggets (s) over Heat
A 5-2 record is a trendy mark that goes to what Windhorst is selling. But look at those series. Again, the 1987 Lakers, 1996 Bulls and 2001 Lakers show up again. Three of the most dominant and revered teams of our lifetimes. This also glosses over the Last Dance Chicago Bulls of 1998, who were finishing off a threepeat. Also look at 2023 when the Denver Nuggets beat the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in the Finals -- only the second 8-seed to reach that point.
Of those five winners, four of them had very recent championship success. Of the two losers, one was a Jazz team in a repeat matchup with the Bulls and the other was a retooled Spurs team. Both were playing the defending champion.
Only the Heat-Spurs series went the full seven games in the Finals ... and it was the team who went seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals who outlasted the team coming off a sweep.
Also note that in those seven series, the team with home court advantage is 6-1. Only the 1998 Bulls won without home court. Again, that shows that the better team wins out more than who has the rest. The one team that bucked that trend was the Last Dance Chicago Bulls for crying out loud.
THAT MEANS TEAMS ARE 15-2 BEFORE THE FINALS
Oh, but wait.
PRE-1971
So let's be fair and look at things pre-1971 format
1968 Lakers (lost Finals to Celtics, who came off Game 7)
1970 Lakers (lost Finals)
Here is where we pause again. We had two instances where a team coming off a sweep played in the Finals ... and both lost. One of those times was against a team coming off a seven game series.
So now we are 5-3 in the Finals. That's not exactly a glowing endorsement for Windhorst and his stat as it pertains to the Spurs and Knicks this month.
I'll stop with these two series because before the 1958 season, you only needed to win three games in a series before the Finals. It doesn't really work the same.
THAT MEANS TEAMS ARE 15-1 BEFORE THE FINALS
So looking at Windy's stat, a bulk of all this happened well before the Finals even happen.
So 1968 was the first year that conference/division semifinals were best-of-7. In that time, here are the series between teams coming off a sweep against teams coming off a Game 7 prior to the NBA Finals. Beginning in 2003, first round series are also best-of-7. Again, I'll use the "s" to note who is coming off the sweep, and I'll add the teams seeds as well:
1981: 1-Celtics (s) over 3-Sixers
2004: 1-Pacers (s) over 4-Heat
2005: 1-Suns (s) over 4-Mavericks
2009: 1-Cavaliers (s) over 4-Hawks
2009: 3-Magic over 1-Cavaliers (s)
2010: 2-Magic (s) over 3-Hawks
2011: 3-Mavericks (s) over 4-Thunder
2012: 1-Spurs (s) over 5-Clippers
2012: 2-Thunder (s) over 3-Lakers
2013: 1-Heat (s) over 5-Bulls
2014: 2-Heat (s) over 6-Nets
2016: 1-Cavaliers (s) over 2-Raptors
2017: 1-Warriors (s) over 5-Jazz
2017: 2-Cavaliers (s) over 1-Celtics
2025: 1-Thunder (s) over 4-Nuggets
2026: 3-Knicks (s) over 4-Cavaliers
There you have it. Of those 16 series, only ONCE has a team who was the better seed lost in this scenario -- and that was the 2017 Cavaliers beating the Celtics. Those Cavaliers were the defending NBA champions and had won the East the previous two seasons (and were in the middle of four straight Finals appearances).
DOES WINDY'S STAT MATTER?
No.
In fact, the seeding seems to be a way more deciding factor than who got rest. The better team usually wins these things, which is kind of how sports works. No matter who got rest.
Windy's stats means nothing about this series. It lacks context and doesn't hold up when you actually do some digging. Of the 24 series he's talking about, only 8 have happened in the Finals. Of those 8, the team with home court advantage won 7 of those times. Of the 24 total times, teams with home court advantage won 22 of those times.
It ain't about the rest.
