I've been a ACC fan my entire life. Grew up in Charlotte and am a North Carolina fan. But despite all these decades of loving the conference, I've recently accepted the fact that we are nearing the end of it ... at least in the way we knew it.
Actually, that's already happened. What was once a cozy league nestled in the mid-Atlantic grew in the 1990s and exploded in the 21st century. From five (six before I was born) Carolina teams mixed with Virginia and Maryland, to expanding to Georgia Tech and Florida State, getting more serious about football with Miami and Virginia Tech, to now teams in Boston, Pittsburgh, Indiana, Louisville, Dallas and the Bay Area. The ACC we knew is long gone and that may be even more evident over the next decade.
ACC AND ESPN ARE TOGETHER THRU 2036
ESPN picked up their option to keep their current rights deal with the ACC through 2036. So the deal that was already considered bad (by comparison to the Big Ten and SEC) will stay that way for another decade. It also binds the league by the Grant of Rights fees which means the ACC owns its members' TV rights until 2036 ... even if the member leaves.
ACC'S NEW PAYOUT MODEL AND EXIT FEES
When Clemson and Florida State challenged the ACC over the last couple years, the parties ended up settling for a changed model. Essentially there is a merit based system that rewards the best performing schools by using the pieces of the pie that new members SMU, Stanford and California won't be getting to pay out "bonuses". That helps close the gap for schools like Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and others but doesn't eliminate it. Also, the expensive exit fees that a school must pay to leave will drop a little each year for the life of the deal.
So, basically, everyone is good for now, but in about six years or so you will start to see wandering eyes as various other rights deals begin to open up.
WHO IS A THREAT TO LEAVE
Technically ... everyone. But the main culprits are Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina. Those three schools were the only ones who voted against bringing in SMU, Stanford and Cal. Clemson and Florida State were the ones who sued the ACC over the Grant of Rights and the league's power over them, while North Carolina was quieter about its moves towards leaving the ACC.
NC State was the defector in expansion, initially voting against it before swinging towards allowing the three new schools in. So you would think they'd be interesting in bolting if they had to. In fact, the North Carolina legislature has already been trying for force North Carolina to take NC State with them wherever they may go. There is also Virginia, who is more linked with North Carolina than NC State since those two make up a similar academic and athletic profile. The SEC and Big Ten would be more apt to love a UNC-UVa pairing of great institutions with very strong athletic departments who gets those league into two very important mid-Atlantic states. Then there is Miami, one of the strongest football brands out there.
If an exodus begins, they it could peel off schools like Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Louisville. Cal and Stanford may elect to jump a sinking ship and head back to the Pac-12 ... even though it is a lesser version. Duke is a major basketball brand that could be snapped up by the Big Ten, paired with UNC in some fashion, or join the Big East and find a new landing spot for football.
SMU would suddenly be more attractive than they were before they were the joined the ACC ... winning the bet they made on themselves. SMU has shown to be a really solid football program and their hoops prowess is getting better. The support the community has shown for its move to the ACC makes it much more of an option for the Big Ten or Big 12. If the ACC crumbles, I'm sure moving to the new Pac-12 could be a nice landing spot if the power leagues freeze them out.
Then there are the former Big East schools like Syracuse, Pitt and Boston College who may find themselves in a survivor's spot. I could see them join the Big East again for all sports and possibly the MAC or The American for football. Notre Dame would be alright as an independant in football and could easily join the Big East in hoops. Then there is Wake Forest, who may be the most vunerable of the entire ACC. Every school could leave, though it is more like the ACC goes a different route.
THE ACC GOES THE WAY OF THE PAC-12
This is were I see the ACC going in a decade. I have my own ideas of what college athletics should look like going forward, but the reality is that this is a slow moving segmented task. When it becomes viable, expect the SEC and Big Ten to go after North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami. Those are the big fish those leagues would love the catch. As discussed, Virginia, Duke, NC State and Virginia Tech could be extracted in some form to appease the expansion process.
If the ACC crumbles, expect Louisville to leave. Louisville sees itself as a commodity that needs to find an appropriate home. I'm not sure the SEC or Big Ten would go after them, but the Big 12 just might. SMU could have the same option.
But I don't think the ACC dies as much as the ACC as we know it does. Imagine if schools like Georgia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech and/or NC State decide to retool the conference by holding on to it and then adding some high profile members from other conferences. Think Memphis, South Florida, North Texas or James Madison. No, it won't ever be like it was in its heyday, but it would continue to exist in some form.
I know nobody wants to hear any of this. I don't want to say any of this. I grew up in Charlotte and the ACC was this beautiful basketball conference. That's already drastically changed and until we can wrap around the reality of more changes coming, we are just kidding ourselves.
No comments:
Post a Comment