I'm not typically a podcast guy, but one I do follow regularly is Isaac Schade's "Locked On Tar Heels". As a North Carolina Tar Heels fan, I like to be informed on what's going on with the Heels and to have some of my thoughts either confirmed or downgraded. During this free agency period of offseason roster reconstruction, I find it a useful tool to see what may be going on behind the scenes in Chapel Hill. I may not technically be one of Schade's "everydayers", but I do catch two or three episodes a week.
The other day, an interesting departure from the normal Tar Heel talk was an episode where Schade was being interviewed by a "Locked On Big 12" podcast where the discussion was about the possibility of UNC joining the Big 12 in some fashion. I hadn't considered that to be a serious option so the episode grabbed my interest ... so much so that I feel compelled to write this about it. Anything is possible in this day and age of college athletics, but I'm not feeling this as a possiblity.
SHOULD UNC THINK ABOUT JOINING THE BIG 12?
In short, no. As Mr. Schade remarked (very diplomatically, I may add), joining the Big 12 is the worst likely scenario on UNC's plate. Keeping the ACC together in a successful model is at the front of the wish list. After than comes a likely invitation from either the Big Ten or SEC (I'll get to that in a moment). If UNC ends up in the Big 12 then something horribly wrong happened. I mean that as no disrespect to the Big 12 which, honestly, has been a better conference in basketball of late and is quite a formidable football league.
My issue is that UNC fits with the Big Ten or SEC much, much, much better than the Big 12. While not technically a catastrophic option, it is an option that really would be a loss for the UNC program.
WHY NOT THE BIG 12?
Let's just pretend for the moment that UNC would entertain this alongside a Big Ten or SEC invite. First off, the Big 12 isn't as financially attractive as the Big Ten or SEC ... who are leading the way of conference realignment. There's more money in being a member of the Big Ten or SEC. Second is the geographical and historical context of what North Carolina wants in a new league. Obviously UNC fits in the geographic footprint of the SEC, and would be part of a new geographic footprint of the Big Ten.
The SEC is filled with programs that UNC is very familiar with. South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and this little rivalry with Alabama blooming. While the Big Ten has grown to a cross country conference, UNC fits with the academic profile of the league as an AAU school. UNC has also had a historical bond with the Big Ten with the now-defunct ACC/Big Ten Challenge that went on for decades and their battles with their programs -- Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and, obviously, Maryland.
That doesn't really exist with the Big 12. There is the UNC-Kansas thing which would be very attractive, but not really anything else. While the SEC is more geographically compact and the the Big Ten has sort of a midwestern hub of schools, the Big 12 is kinda all over the place. Then again, so is the ACC right now.
In short, North Carolina doesn't feel like a Big 12 school.
Look, the Big 12 should be commended. This league was almost dead two years ago when Texas and Oklahoma were lured away to the SEC. They've done a fantastic job not only holding the league together but turning into a league that may end up surviving while the Pac-12 died and the ACC is the one on life support. They had the foresight to bring in the best of the Group of 5 programs to fill its roster and jump on the Pac-12 before the ACC did. Side note: I will forever be angry that the ACC did not go after USC, UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Stanford and Washington before the Big Ten did. I wrote about this two years ago and I feel could be the worst decision the ACC didn't make in its history.
WHAT WOULD BE GOOD ABOUT GOING TO THE BIG 12?
Imagine that I'm really looking in to this. There is obviously that basketball attractiveness of the Big 12. If the ACC imploded and there was a block of ACC schools like Duke or Virginia willing to move with UNC to the Big 12, imagine what that hoops conference would look like.
UNC, Duke and Virginia have won national championships over the last decade. So has the Big 12's Kansas (ugh, we know) and Baylor. Texas Tech lost to Virginia in the 2019 NCAA tournament final. Newcomer Arizona is a tier or two below blue blood status. Houston has built itself up to be a power again. Iowa State is a really good program. BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas State, West Virginia and Utah have had their moments. That would be a basketball-centric league that would appease the Heels' more hoops-minded fans.
As far as football, well that's hard to say. The Big 12's biggest football powers (Texas, Oklahoma) are leaving so there is a power vacuum that needs to be filled. With no obvious power school to block success like the ACC (Clemson, Florida State), SEC (Georgia, Alabama) or Big Ten (Michigan, Ohio State), there is a better chance for the Tar Heels to make some noise in the Big 12. There are some good programs left, but none are historical powers like the six I just named. North Carolina could compete just as well as they have in the ACC.
FORGET THE BIG 12. WHAT DOES UNC WANT WITH ITS FIRST OPTION OF STAYING IN THE ACC?
This one is hard. First off, UNC is a flagship program of the ACC and has found success in football and basketball ... among other sports. What UNC says in ACC affairs matters. Not only are they an O.G. of the conference with major successes, they also reside smack dab in the hub of the conference. While the influence of the Big Four North Carolina schools isn't as powerful as it was in the 20th century, it still is a North Carolina-centric league with the league offices in nearby Charlotte. Leaving to go anywhere else means UNC is a new guy at the club and doesn't have any of the earned power it has in the ACC.
But what would an ACC look like going forward?
That's really hard to say. My genuine hope is that the ACC can stay together for a long as they can and at least get to the part of the story where college football decides to separate and form its own entity. What that could mean for Carolina and the ACC is that football goes off to be this super league but leaves all the other stuff behind. So North Carolina would be part of this new super football league where they they would be part of some new division playing a new way ... but the ACC is still intact for basketball and other sports. That could put the ACC in a power position to begin forming a more basketball-centric league. You may begin to see a sort of reverse-realignment where geography may matter more to schools since the football money comes from this super league.
For instance: UNC and most of the rest of the ACC now plays football in the new super league. UNC plays in the Atlantic Division of this league with a lot of the schools they are currently in the ACC. Money comes from the TV contracts that get shared throughout that super league and there's no need to have these bastardized leagues (like having Cal and Stanford in the ACC) we are seeing now.
You could, theoretically, see the Pac-12 get back together since there's no need for USC, UCLA, Oregon or Washington to be in the Big Ten. They get their football money from this super league and may rather go back to the perks of the Pac-12's everything else. That means Cal and Stanford are back where they should be.
On this side of the country, the ACC is a more stable league with Clemson and Florida State good with their membership since their football programs are now cashing in. We go back to where football doesn't drive these decisions because everyone is taken care of. It may be an idealistic approach to this, but it is one I am clinging on to.
OKAY, BUT THE ACC DOES IMPLODE AND LOOKS ELSEWHERE? WHAT IS THE NUMBER 2 OPTION?
The Big Ten. North Carolina fancies itself more as a Big Ten school than an SEC one. So do I. North Carolina is an AAU school just like every one of the Big Ten schools (Nebraska used to be, but isn't anymore). Not just that, but UNC has a very diverse program of 28 sports ... and so does the Big Ten. The SEC doesn't sanction as many sports, so UNC would have to find homes for them somewhere else. As any UNC fan knows, this is a school that prides itself of having fantastic programs like field hockey, soccer, wrestling, golf, etc and wants to find stable homes for all of them.
The Big Ten makes sense.
The SEC makes sense as well, but not as much. There are the obvious regional fits and rivalries that we've touched on. UNC in the SEC would mean a much more compact conference that would actually condense UNC's conference footprint. Right now, the SEC shares land with the ACC in South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Kentucky (well, and Texas with SMU's move to the ACC). A move to the Big Ten would mean UNC would be in a more mid-west centric league with four schools on the Pacific Coast. The SEC would be as west as Texas and as north as Kentucky. The SEC is the premiere league for football, so it would jolt the competition in that sport -- for better or worse. The SEC is also an emerging basketball conference with another blue blood sitting there in Kentucky.
The Big Ten is a more desirable home due to academics and sports profile, but the SEC is a more than adequate landing spot.
WHAT IS IT THAT WE DO KNOW RIGHT NOW?
Well, that North Carolina should not be a school that is scared right now. UNC has some power. As far as the ACC goes, North Carolina has irons is a few fires ... both in regards to keeping the ACC intact as well as leaving the league. If the ACC implodes, UNC has positioned itself to be a very desirable school that the Big Ten, SEC and the Big 12 would love to add. UNC doesn't need to worry like Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia Tech or even NC State, Duke or Wake Forest. UNC is a driver in all of this and should be able to have a set at one of the big tables ... even if it is a seismic change that fans aren't wanting.
While Clemson and Florida State are now fighting the ACC for their freedom, UNC can sit back and let them get dirt on their hands while calmly strategizing their next moves. If Clemson and Florida State are successful in breaking away, North Carolina could be right out the door with them and land a Big Ten or SEC invite. If the ACC holds together this thing via legal and financial means, UNC can focus on being leaders in the league.
North Carolina isn't desperate right now and seems to be holding a good hand.
