With USC and UCLA heading to the Big Ten, the ACC is on alert. The fact of the matter is that the Big Ten and SEC will be paying their schools out around $100M in television money while the ACC is stuck in a long-term deal with ESPN that will pay their members less than half of that. The gap in money is way too large to ignore for the ACC's biggest properties -- namely Clemson, Florida State, Miami and North Carolina.
The grant of rights deal that lasts another twelve years is pretty much the only thing holding the ACC together. Rest assured that schools, lawyers and accountants are looking at ways to circumvent that if they need to break out.
So how does the ACC hold this thing together? Can it avoid watching a max exodus of schools and then forcing to rebuild and rebrand as a Group of 5 type conference?
GO GET NOTRE DAME
If it was that easy, it would already be done. A year ago, I laid out a plan that would've been much more enticing for Notre Dame to join the ACC in football. With both USC and UCLA now off to the Big Ten, that plan is out the window.
Honestly, I don't know how the ACC could now convince Notre Dame to join a league. Sure, of all the "morality" that doesn't exist in college athletics, Notre Dame's approach to football independence may be the only thread that remains. They don't do it just for the money, but because they want to. Obviously, all these giant leagues will begin to squeeze possible opponents out and the Irish will be forced to look to Group of 5 teams to put on their schedule. For instance, it isn't out of the realm of possibilities for USC to end their rivalry with Notre Dame because their nine-game Big Ten schedule just doesn't allow for their own flexibility. That's why Notre Dame got into their soft football relationship with the ACC in the first place -- an inventory of games due to difficulty scheduling. And, as of now, Notre Dame is tied to the ACC if they want to join a conference -- barring an ability to find a way out of that grant of rights deal.
One way to entice Notre Dame is just give them everything they want. Allow Notre Dame to keep their ability to sell their own home games as they've been doing, and the ACC has the rights to the road games. That wouldn't necessarily break the bank with a new TV deal, but it could work with other options I'll list to stabilize the league. Yes, Notre Dame would get what they wanted from the Big Ten and SEC, but the Irish have a long history of not liking the Big Ten and a move to the SEC, while lucrative, is exactly the opposite of the national free reign that the school desires.
GO AFTER THE PAC-12
Last year I wrote that the ACC needed to go after the Pac-12 and try to lure USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford and either Washington or Oregon to create a western wing of the conference. That way, Notre Dame would see rivals USC and Stanford already in an ACC where they schedule five yearly games and decide it might as well just join the ACC.
Since USC and UCLA are off the table, it isn't as simple anymore. Still, adding Oregon and Washington, as well as Cal and Stanford would be worth looking into as possible additions. Right now, the Pac-12 is where the Big 12 was a year ago and at the crossroads of rebuild or implode. If the ACC comes calling for those schools, they may take the bait instead of either trying to rebuild with San Diego State or Boise State or waiting for the Big Ten to extend membership.
The rumors are that Oregon and Washington are looking to get out of the Pac-12 and have already contacted the Big Ten (who said they're not expanding anymore ... for the time being). The ACC needs to make a play for them. Stanford also wants to be a partner with Notre Dame if they are interested in joining the Big Ten. So why not the ACC go after that as well, especially with what I mentioned earlier. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are already looking at moving east to the rebuilt Big 12, which could make the other six remaining Pac-12 members (the four I mentioned, plus Washington State and Oregon State) desperate to get on the first plane out.
Adding four schools puts the ACC at 18 and may be a little better sell to Notre Dame. The league would stretch from New York and Boston, down to Florida, through the south and midwest and out west. As mighty as the SEC and Big Ten are right now, no league would be that broad.
GO AFTER THE BIG 12
The ACC really needs to look at the Big 12 ... namely Texas schools. While the biggest Texas programs reside in the SEC now, Baylor has a great football and basketball programs and they ... along with TCU or Houston ... could move the league into a key football state. While we are on the subject, add in Oklahoma State in the mix. Oklahoma State has already been ready to break out of the Big 12 for a year now and would certainly listen to the ACC's pitch. Pairing them up with a Texas school makes it a bit better for the Cowboys to stomach geographically speaking.
Baylor and Oklahoma State are programs who feel they have downgraded in the newly constructed Big 12 and may opt for a better situation in the ACC ... if they feel it is a better situation.
These are the Big 12 schools to go for. Kansas would also be interesting from a basketball standpoint, but that may be a little too cute. West Virginia, Cincinnati an UCF don't break any new geographic ground, BYU just doesn't fit right in the ACC (though it wouldn't be a bad call to join with that western wing) and Iowa State and Texas Tech don't really move the needle.
REBUILD AS A LOWER TIER LEAGUE
The least popular ... but possibly the most likeliest scenario ... is letting what happens happen and then the ACC rebuild as a lower tier league. Basically take the Big 12's playbook of a year ago, or what the Big East did when the league split a decade ago.
Everything I mentioned before takes a lot of convincing and a lot of things breaking the ACC's way. It also doesn't take into account that the league could still be unstable even after making some or all of those moves. Remember that the ACC was at the forefront of all of this in the early 2000s and 2010s to ensure their survival, and that current grant of rights came when Maryland left for the Big Ten. The league isn't in a position of power, and there is a strong case to be made that Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Pitt leaving the league for the SEC or Big Ten, with schools like Virginia Tech, Boston College or Duke able to hitch a ride or join the Big 12 as rats jumping off a sinking ship.
No matter what happens, not all 15 member schools will be leaving the league if it is still an entity. There could be six to ten schools that won't be invited to either the SEC or Big Ten and will need to figure out their next move ... and the Big 12 may not really feel the need to over-expand and add second or third tier ACC schools. That means the league needs to look for new members to keep the league alive and pivot to stay in that tier after the SEC and Big Ten.
When the Big East crashed, the football schools created the AAC (the ACC won't need to form a new league). Last year, the Big 12 raided the best brands of the AAC for their own survival. The ACC could look to add Memphis, SMU, Temple, UAB, Appalachian State, East Carolina, North Texas or Louisiana. Again, this isn't a great option to keep the ACC we know and love the same, but it is a survival inevitability for a proud conference.
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