SPORTZ' BUBBLE WATCH: I'm not a bracketologist by any means. But I do like to dabble with who I think has a shot at getting one of the 65 bids to the NCAA Tournament.
Below is my most recent outlook. I have locks in green (teams who I think are in no matter what), "looking good" in blue (teams who I think would have to tank it to miss the tournament) and "needs work" in red (the true bubble teams).
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
LOCKS: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest
LOOKING GOOD: Florida State, Boston College
NEED A LITTLE MORE: Virginia Tech, Miami-FL, Maryland
OUTLOOK: Maryland is back up off the mat with their huge win over UNC. Va-Tech may have seen their hopes dashed with a bad loss to Virginia. BC still has those wins over UNC and Duke to brag about.
BIG EAST CONFERENCE
LOCKS: UConn, Pitt, Villanova, Louisville, Marquette
LOOKING GOOD: Syracuse, West Virginia
NEED A LITTLE MORE: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Providence
OUTLOOK: Syracuse, to me, is a lock barring a meltdown. Still, I don't have them there yet. Georgetown really needs a win over L'ville tonight. Cincinnati is in a weird place since they have no really sexy wins ... since those wins over the Hoyas don't look as good now.
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
LOCKS: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue
LOOKING GOOD: Ohio State, Wisconsin
NEED A LITTLE MORE: Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State
OUTLOOK: Minnesota has fallen down to NALM status by losing six of nine. Wisconsin and Ohio State don't have sparkling records, but they have high RPIs and great SOS. Both Michigan and Penn State have really nice wins on their resume, but is it enough to unseat a couple ACC or Big East teams?
BIG XII CONFERENCE
LOCKS: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
LOOKING GOOD: Texas
NEED A LITTLE MORE: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Kansas State
OUTLOOK: Texas got a huge win against the Sooners this weekend. Okie State has lofty numbers but, as I've said before, losing to great teams doesn't make you great.
PACIFIC TEN CONFERENCE
LOCKS: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
LOOKING GOOD: Arizona, California
NEED A LITTLE MORE: USC
OUTLOOK: The Trojans are hanging on by a thread. Not only is their record not glamourous, people really aren't respecting the Pac-10 as a great conference this year. The fact that the top of the league isn't as strong will hurt Southern Cal.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
LOCKS: LSU
LOOKING GOOD: Florida, Kentucky
NEED A LITTLE MORE: Tennessee, South Carolina
OUTLOOK: The Vols lost badly at Kentucky which really damages their postseason chances. Florida's conference record should be good enough to get them in. Same thing with Kentucky. Both already have 8-4 records and should realistically hang ten wins.
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Below are teams that I deem as locks and looking goods in the next tier of conferences.
ATLANTIC 10: Xavier, Dayton
CONFERENCE USA: Memphis
HORIZON: Butler
MOUNTAIN WEST: Utah, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
WAC: Utah State
WEST COAST: Gonzaga
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Here are 19 conferences that should just get the one automatic bid in:
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summitt, Sun Belt
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