Sunday, June 27, 2004

WHO's NUMBER ONE???

It's hard to believe a guy named Dwight Howard, a person who most of us have never seen play, ends up as the #1 overall pick in the draft.  Oh, he could be great.....but when you are used to hearing familar names with familiar games like LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, Shaq, Chris Webber and the rest.....it's really hard to fathom that some guy we don't know is the top pick.

Again.....that doesn't mean much nowadays as the NBA Draft has moved from asking the question of "can this college kid build his game" to "will he be the guy that everyone wished they took 5 years ago". 

It really started in 1998 when the LA Clippers went against conventional wisdom and went for the project pick in Michael Olowokandi.  Kandi was a collegian.....played at Pacific.  But even college fans had barely heard much from him.  But, he was "the best big man in the draft" so the Clipps took him.  Look at some of these other names in the 1998 lottery:  #2 Mike Bibby, #4 Antawn Jamison, #5 Vince Carter, #9 Dirk Nowitzki, #10 Paul Pierce, #11 Bonzi Wells.  All pretty good players, right???  Heck, J-Will, Larry Hughes and Raef LaFrentz were also in that lottery.  But this darkhorse got so hot in the pre-draft murmurring that the Clips took the bait.

In the past 4 years....here have been the top overall picks.  Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Yao Ming and Kwame Brown.  None stepped on a college court.  All were under 20 when drafted.  Of course, Yao is an All Star and LeBron will be one starting next year.  But, all of these people just dominated inferior competition on their way to the top pick.  And, besides LeBron, they all had questionmarks if they could actually play like a "overall #1 should".  This is where the word "up-side" comes to play. 

You don't want to be the one to miss out.  You don't want to be Milwaukee....who traded the draft rights of Dirk Nowitzki to Dallas for the rights to Tractor Traylor.  You don't want to be Golden State, who drafted Adonal Foyle the pick before T-Mac.  You don't want to be the ones who drafted Lorenzen Wright, Samaki Walker, Erick Dampier, Todd Fuller or Vitaly Potepenko.....all ahead of Kobe Bryant. 

So, that's why the Jonathan Benders, Darius Miles, Eddy Currys, Ty Chandlers and Kwame Browns get drafted so high.  We know what guys like Jameer Nelson can do.  But these guys could be sooooooo much better.  Right?

When I think of all of this....I think of Randy Livingston.  I think many guys think of Randy Livingston.  Randy was Mr. Everything coming out of high school.  Went to LSU....blew out his knees.  He's had a few cups of coffee in the League....but nothing to celebrate.  I'm sure agents use that imagery to get this kids jumping.  Heck, wouldn't Felipe Lopez been a lottery pick right out of high school??  He had a solid, not spectacular college career at St. John's.  He's had minor success in the NBA. 

And there have been horrible college picks too [read my other entry].  But I find the NBA Draft is just missing something when it is filled with faces no one knows......from places no one has heard of. 

It might as well have been the NHL Draft.

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