Late Wednesday night reports swirled that the Pac-12 conference ... which consists of just Oregon State and Washington State ... will be adding Mountain West members Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State. Some bullet points on this:
SO WHAT HAPPENED?
This puts the conference at six members. For now, the NCAA allows the Pac-12 to be under the mandatory eight member threshold for two years (which would be the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 seasons), which means the league must find two more schools to join them before that time frame ends. The four new schools will join the Pac-12 in 2026.
There are financial dealings which I won't go too in depth on, but it is important to note that the Pac-12 will help pay the four schools exit fees from the Mountain West as well as paying the MW a "poacher's fee", which was agreed to when the two leagues decided to do sports business this school year. The Pac-12 is able to do this because they've amassed a war chest due to keeping money and benefits the ten schools that bolted left behind.
Since the Pac-12 watched those ten schools leave, there has been a lot of speculation over what will happen next. Would the Pac-12 rebuild be adding some Mountain West teams? Would the two Pac-12 teams join the Mountain West or another conference? Would the Pac-12 and Mountain West merge? There were other options, but those three were the most likely outcomes ... and the first one seems to have played out.
The Pac-12 adds Boise State, who fits nicely with both Washington State (which is a six hour drive away) and Oregon State (about an eight hour drive). Boise State blasted on the scene about 15 years ago and has been one of the more popular candidates to make the jump to a Power 5 conference. Adding San Diego State and Fresno State gets the league back into California after losing all four of their schools from that state over the summer. Both have had solid football programs over the years. Colorado State may not have that kind of success, but they do bring the Denver area somewhat back to the Pac-12 after losing Colorado.
WHO COULD JOIN THE PAC-12 NEXT?
That's a good question. Typically conferences say that they're done with expansion for the moment once they do add schools ... even if that ends up not being true. But we all know that the Pac-12 cannot be done expanding since they must get to that eight member requirement by 2026, so this should move pretty quickly.
Let me just start out by saying there is next to no way that Cal and Stanford return to the Pac-12. That seems to be the popular sentiment, but it really doesn't make much sense when you look at the reason most realignment happens -- money. When Cal and Stanford joined the ACC, they signed the same Grant of Rights deal that Florida State and Clemson are trying so hard to find a way out of. So there's no way the ACC willingly allows Cal and Stanford to go back to the Pac-12 right in front of Florida State and Clemson (who are in lawsuits against the ACC). A move like that would be devastating for the ACC since it would kick open the door for any school that wants out to do so ... and Florida State and Clemson could be joined by North Carolina, Virginia, Miami and others. The entire reason that the ACC even added Cal and Stanford was to keep the conference from imploding, so it makes no sense for them to trigger that happening.
Also understand that Cal and Stanford willingly opted to leave Oregon State and Washington State behind because they didn't want to risk being left with nothing and they felt that an invite from the ACC was better than whatever a new Pac-12 would look like. I mean, Cal and Stanford could've just joined the Mountain West instead of the ACC if the new Pac-12 was attractive to them. Right now they are in a Power 4 conference ... something that this new Pac-12 isn't guaranteed to be part of. The Pac-12 won't be able to cobble together any broadcast deal better than what they have with the ACC ... even if they agreed to a discounted rate. And Stanford playing conference games against Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Louisville is much more high profile than anything the Pac-12 offers. Cal and Stanford also enjoy the academic profile of the ACC.
Sure, geography of the whole thing makes sense, but not much else does at the moment.
So who does make sense? There are more Mountain West schools to choose from, but the problem that league has is there is some real dead weight at the bottom. Wyoming makes sense from a geography standpoint and they've been a solid program, but do they attract eyes? I can see UNLV getting in because it brings in Las Vegas, but the football program has been bad for quite some time. Aside from that there is slim pickings. Air Force? Maybe. Nevada has been really, really bad. San Jose State has turned itself around, but are they that attractive? Same goes for Utah State and New Mexico. You also have to consider that if the Pac-12 was looking at adding any of these other Mountain West schools ... wouldn't they have done so with the four they've already offered?
Maybe the Pac-12 looks more towards the midwest. Memphis could be really attractive. Like Boise State, it seems to have been on the short list of Group of 5 schools ready to move up. Tulane could also be a nice addition if they decide to go that route. That would also open up the possibility of UTSA, UTEP or North Texas. Louisiana Tech?
See, that's the problem. There really aren't many great options out there. None of the Power 4 schools would leave to go to the Pac-12 and the Group of 5 possibilities aren't very sparkling. Still, they must add at least two schools. I think UNLV and Wyoming are the more likely candidates, unless they go after Memphis and UTSA. Heck, maybe they go after all four schools.
A dark horse possibility is if the Pac-12 could convince North Dakota State and South Dakota State to make the step up from FCS to FBS.
WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE MOUNTAIN WEST?
Obviously the Mountain West is pissed about this. Once the Pac-12 was gutted, pretty much everyone felt that they would dance around with the Mountain West and that's what has happened. Being mad doesn't help anything (ask the Big East in the mid-2000s) so they need to get to work.
First thing's first: is anyone else leaving? We already discussed that the Pac-12 could go after UNLV, Wyoming or others so it is difficult for the MW to make a plan when they aren't sure what's going to be left of their conference. Even so, they've got to be looking at Conference USA and the American conferences for new members. Of course, those candidates will also be hoping the Pac-12 asks them out to the prom first, so this could take some time.
We do know that right now the MW is: Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State and Wyoming in all sports and Hawaii in football-only. That eight member requirement that I mentioned earlier for the Pac-12? Well that applies to the MW who now only has eight football members and seven for other sports. Starting today, the MW needs to be looking at who to bring in.
The same teams I mentioned above would be MW candidates. The MW could really dig into Texas by adding UTEP, UTSA, Rice and North Texas. Maybe Louisiana Tech or UAB?
There is something else to consider: What if other leagues begin to poach the Mountain West? That is a legitimate question, especially when you consider that the MW hasn't had a team in the New Year's Six game since 2014. Could The American or Sun Belt really be able to begin pulling teams out of the Mountain West? I mean, if the Pac-12 goes after Memphis and Tulane, for example, why wouldn't the AAC be proactive and look at schools like New Mexico or Air Force (the AAC already has Army and Navy in the league as football members). Maybe that also leads to Wyoming or UNLV as travel partners with those schools. As we saw with the Pac-12 just one year ago, if members begin questioning where they are at and looking to jump ship, this could get out of hand really quickly.
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