With the Pac-12 announcing that they'll be taking Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State away from the Mountain West, of course speculation is about who the Pac-12 is coming for next. After all, the league needs to add at least two more members in order to be compliant to the NCAA as a conference in 2026.
Another question looming is the status of the Mountain West Conference. To be frank, it is on edge.
Let's recap who remains in the Mountain West: Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming and Hawaii (football member only).
COULD MORE SCHOOLS LEAVEYes. As I already mentioned, the Pac-12 needs to add two more schools and there is a chance they could come from the Mountain West. There is a thought that if the Pac-12 truly wanted more MW schools than they would've already been brought over in the initial news last week, but that may just be the first step in a series of steps for the Pac-12 to resurrect their conference.
UNLV remains, likely, the most attractive candidate for the Pac-12. They are a football program on the rise, they have basketball history, and bring in a city that is highly desirable to the old Pac-12 and whatever the new version looks like. One problem is that Nevada could be tied to UNLV and the Wolf Pack aren't that wanted. Still, that could be a play the Pac-12 is forced to make.
Outside of the Rebels, Air Force and Wyoming may be the only schools truly interesting to the Pac-12.
WAIT, HOW DID WE GET HERE ANYWAY?Here is the key to the whole thing. When the Pac-12 imploded and became just a two-team league (Oregon State, Washington State), those schools tried desperately to hang on to the value of the Pac-12. That not only means the name and the history, but the financial advantages left behind from the departing members (such as units earned from NCAA tournament successes, for example). They got that, which gave them financial flexibility to make some moves.
Oregon State and Washington State went into an agreement with the West Coast Conference to become affiliate members in basketball and a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West in football. Basically the MW will play seven conference games with each of the schools playing either Oregon State or Washington State once. To many, this seemed like the the beginnings of some sort of relationship between the two leagues, but what would that be?
Would the Pac-12 try to take MW schools? Would the MW take the Pac-12 schools? Would there be some sort of merger between the two leagues in order to consolidate their advantages?
Earlier this month, the MW announced that they weren't willing to extend that football scheduling partnership for 2025. Soon after, the Pac-12 struck with the news of taking four MW schools. With the money the Pac-12 has built up, they are willing to help pay those school's exit fees as well as pay the MW for "poaching" the schools away (which was also part of the agreement between the two leagues). That poaching clause made the MW feel comfortable that the Pac-12 couldn't afford to take their schools nor would the school feel it was in the financial interests to leave the MW. What the Pac-12 was able to do with their war chest changed matters ... as well as the thinking that there is a broadcast deal out there for them that's worth more than what the MW has.
This miscalculation by the MW could lead to their demise. For one, they had 33% of their members just leave for a conference that was hanging on by a thread. Second off, those members happen to be the most attractive schools to broadcasters and will not be replaced easily -- if at all. Not only does it look like the Pac-12 is able to grab a broadcast deal better than what the MW has now, it will also drastically lower the MW's deal when it comes up in a couple of years.
WHAT DO THE CURRENT EIGHT MEMBERS DO?This is tough. Of course all eight would love to receive their own invites from the Pac-12, but as we've pointed out that likely won't be the case. Maybe one or two schools can nab one, but the others will have to figure out what's next. The Mountain West will essentially be where the Pac-12 has been for the last year or so, except they lack the branding that the Pac-12 owns.
Those schools could look to leave themselves. Of course, that wouldn't happen immediately since the same exit fees the four departing schools are having to deal with would apply to the other schools. If those schools left, they'd be leaving for Conference USA, the American Athletic Conference or Sun Belt (the MAC will likely be out of the equation).
Obviously the American would be the most attractive option, that league wouldn't want all the MW's inventory. Air Force would be interesting since Army and Navy already play football in the AAC. Right now, North Texas, UTSA and Tulsa are the most western of the current AAC schools so they could possibly be interested in Wyoming or UNLV if either of them were available. Of course, the AAC could see a few of its teams get poached by the Pac-12 (Memphis and Tulane seem to be mentioned the most) and could feel that stacking several MW teams is their best way of building back up.
The Sun Belt would be a stretch since it really doesn't fit with their strategy. Still, it could be an option.
Conference USA may be the best ... albeit sad ... bet. CUSA already has New Mexico State and UTEP, so adding any or all of the MW is very doable. That may not be the most desirable option, but if these schools feel desperate then it could be the straw that breaks the MW's back. Right now, the CUSA is seen as the lowest rung of the FBS conferences, so any MW school leaving for it would basically mean the MW is dead.
COULD THE MOUNTAIN WEST REBUILD?Certainly. How, is the tricky question. The Mountain West can feel that they have a good enough brand that they can take CUSA schools away. As I mentioned earlier, UTEP and New Mexico State would be good options. So could Texas State, Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech. I'd doubt that any Sun Belt or AAC teams would want to leave the top two Group of 5 leagues for a western league that's gasping for air, so poaching Conference USA would be the more likely option.
The biggest move that the Mountain West could make is looking at several FCS schools to make the jump to FBS. Could it convince Idaho to give FBS a shot again? Maybe Montana and Montana State (they'd be a package deal)? Could North Dakota State and South Dakota State be willing to make the move from dominant FCS programs to the FBS? James Madison and Appalachian State have done so in recent years. If those two come, would North Dakota and South Dakota have to come with them?
WHAT WOULD BE THE KINDA BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR THE MOUNTAIN WEST?So let's go ahead and say that the Pac-12 takes UNLV away from the MW ... and that's it. So we are left with Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State, Wyoming and Hawaii. The best case scenario would be to get North Dakota State and South Dakota State to jump from FCS. Maybe add UTEP and New Mexico State from Conference USA. That puts the Mountain West as an 11-team football conference that stays in the geographic footprint but adds the Dakotas. It still allows for growth (maybe Idaho or Sacramento State) if the Pac-12 took someone in addition to UNLV.
WHAT IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO? Basically the conference dies. We've seen buzzards fly around the Big 12 and Pac-12 over the last several years, but both conferences found ways to persevere. Could the Mountain West do the same? Maybe, but both the Big 12 and Pac-12 have assets that the MW just doesn't have which makes it less likely to be able to pull off that kind of resurrection. If the MW is deemed to forgone to save (similar to what happened to the Pac-12 last year), it really may not survive. The geography of the Mountain West makes it difficult to pull in members, which is why the MW and Pac-12 relationship so interesting. They both were looking at possibly ending the other one since they have some shared space.
When the MW's broadcast deals are up, the numbers for a new deal might look ugly ... or at least less attractive than what Conference USA or someone else may be able to offer. Each school has different needs (hello, Hawaii) so there is no blanket answer for the remaining eight schools.
