Sportz NFL Mid-season Thoughts

We just finished Week 9 of the NFL season, meaning we are at the exact halfway point of the year. Just like any season, we've had some pleasant surprises and major disappointments. So let's go division by division for a look of where we are and what's coming down the stretch.

AFC EAST 

THE GOOD: Bills. Buffalo has built up a four game lead already and is clearly the class of this division.

THE BAD: Jets. While both the Dolphins and Jets have underperformed, Miami was more about Tua Tagovailoa's missed games than whatever the deal is with the Jets. 

THE FUTURE: The Bills run away with this thing and have it locked up by early December. Then the focus is on health and getting that No. 1 seed and making everyone come to Buffalo in January. Barring the Jets or Dolphins figuring it out, I doubt there will be another AFC East representative in the postseason. 

AFC SOUTH

THE GOOD: Texans. Look, they haven't made the jump to elite status in the AFC, but they do hold a nice lead in the division. 

THE BAD: Jaguars. I didn't expect it to get this bad in Jacksonville. Sure, they've been in some close games that ended in losses, but close doesn't matter. 

THE FUTURE: When Nico Collins gets healthy, maybe the Texans get their offensive mojo back and make a run. I just don't see them being a danger this season -- we may be a year away. Aside from that, who knows? The Titans and Jags are bad and maybe the Colts can sneak into the playoffs if they can figure out their QB situation. 

AFC NORTH

THE GOOD: Steelers. I have Mike Tomlin as the Coach of the Year. To be 6-2 with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson as your quarterbacks is rather amazing. That defense is ridiculous and Tomlin is hitting all the right buttons. 

THE BAD: Browns. Most felt they were a QB away from being Super Bowl contenders. That's why they made the trade for Deshaun Watson. But not only hasn't that happened, but he's been awful. Their QB situation is bad and it has manifested itself to a 2-7 record this season. 

THE FUTURE: The North could do some major damage. The Ravens just may be the biggest threat to the Chiefs getting to the Super Bowl and the Steelers could scare anyone. I'm big on the Bengals making the playoffs, but they are not a championship level team. Still, they could scare the hell out of the Chiefs if they happen to match up that wildcard round. 

AFC WEST

THE GOOD: Chiefs. To be 8-0 after consecutive Super Bowl titles is unreal. This team is not dominant, but it knows how to win these close games. 

THE BAD: Raiders. Las Vegas has issues in the important places. The quarterback situation is one of the worst in the NFL and Antonio Pierce is getting a lot of heat. 

THE FUTURE: The Chiefs will make the playoffs, but watch out for both the Chargers and Broncos. Jim Harbaugh is doing wonders with the Bolts in what is supposed to be a transition year while Denver's defense has held up nicely as Bo Nix develops. 

SPORTZ AFC PREDICTIONS: Bills, Texans, Ravens and Chiefs win their divisions. I have the Steelers, Bengals and Chargers as the three wildcard teams. 

NFC EAST 

THE GOOD: Commanders. Who knew this team would be 7-2 at this point? Jayden Daniels has been everything you could dream of a rookie QB and the entire franchise seems to have exorcised the Dan Snyder curse. 

THE BAD: Cowboys. This hasn't been an outright disaster, but this is a flawed roster that has been hit by injuries and a lack of both running the football and stopping the run. With Dak Prescott out for at least a month, this thing may be over in Dallas. 

THE FUTURE: The two Eagles-Commanders games should be great. I have Philadelphia winning the East, since I feel they are just more talented and more experienced in being an elite team. But Washington is coming! Dallas is done and the Giants ... though not as bad as you think ... are ready for 2025. 

NFC SOUTH

THE GOOD: Falcons. I've been so bad at picking Falcons games this season that it is comical. They are at the halfway point to best team in the division and are set up better for success over the next couple of months. 

THE BAD: Saints. Remember after Week 2's destruction of the Cowboys that we thought the Saints were going to be trouble in the NFC? Well, since then they've lost seven straight, fired their head coach, and their QB is dodging strays from former teammates in social media. 

THE FUTURE: This division has been so difficult to read. Again, the Saints scored 91 points over their first two games and 116 points in the seven games since. This looks like the Falcons division since they have the lead, are the only team sort of surging, and have destroyed the Buccaneers twice already. The Buccaneers have dealt with so many injuries that it may be hard to crawl back into the playoff race. The Panthers are just waiting for next season. 

NFC NORTH

THE GOOD: Lions. Detroit looks like the best team in the NFL. Certainly the NFC. 

THE BAD: Bears. Matt Eberflus is feeling some heat and Chicago has arguably the most difficult remaining schedule. Losing on that Hail Mary to Washington really stings. 

THE FUTURE: This is the power division, and I can see the Lions, Vikings and Packers all getting in. Minnesota is sort of sitting tenuously but have an easy schedule looming.

NFC WEST

THE GOOD: Rams. I want to say the Cardinals, but for Los Angeles to be sitting at 4-4 despite missing Cooper Cup and Puca Nacua for an extended time is masterful. 

THE BAD: 49ers. This hasn't gone as planned in San Francisco as injuries just keep coming 

THE FUTURE: This might be the best division race since we have zero idea who will win it. Only one game separates first from last. 

SPORTZ NFC PREDICTIONS: I have the Eagles, Lions, Falcons and 49ers still winning the division. Wildcards are Commanders, Packers and Rams. Yeah, I think LA takes down Minnesota. 

Carolina Panthers Are Now Officially A Clown Franchise

I grew up in Charlotte, and despite me moving away many years ago I still consider it as my hometown. I am not a Carolina Panthers fan, as the team arrived in Charlotte when I was 20 years old. I grew up and still am a Washington Commanders (formerly Redskins) fan, which was the popular team in Charlotte until the NFL expanded into the Carolinas.

So I know a thing or two about clown franchises.

With Daniel Snyder gone in Washington, David Tepper's Panthers have emerged as the newest clown prince of dysfunctional franchises in the NFL. That was confirmed today when it was announced that quarterback Bryce Young will be benched for Andy Dalton in Week 3. 

Why is that the moment that made he write this? Well ...

*The Panthers seem to be throwing in the towel on Young, their No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 Draft. I'm not big on throwing players away so quickly, but I also agree that it does no good to keep living with a mistake.

*However, this team has invested heavily in acquiring Young. In 2023, the Panthers traded their 2023 first round pick (9th overall), their 2024 first round pick, a 2025 second round pick, and their top receiver, D.J. Moore. That 2024 first rounder turned into the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, which Chicago was able to use to draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams. The Bears were able to obtain Williams, Moore and offensive tackle Darnell Wright, and still has the 2025 pick to use. 

*What makes Young's selection worse is that quarterback CJ Stroud was selected right after him. Stroud was the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Houston Texans to the playoffs. 

*Also against Young is the fact that the Panthers had Sam Darnold in 2021 and 2022 and couldn't win with him. They also took a flyer on Baker Mayfield in 2022, and that didn't work out. Darnold is 2-0 with the Minnesota Vikings while Mayfield led NFC South rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the division title last year and has them 2-0 this season. 

*Young is 2-16 as a starter in Carolina, with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. 

That's just the Young part of things. Again, there are fans who are celebrating benching Young while others think that you are pretty much beholden to try to develop him and see if he is salvageable. This team isn't talented enough to go anywhere, so maybe playing Young and riding with whatever happens (even if that means getting the No. 1 pick again). That's why this is a bit weird.

Tepper wanted Young. He said so in a press conference. He hired Frank Reich, the former Indianapolis Colts head coach and Panthers quarterback, to be the head coach to mentor Young. He was fired just 11 games into his first season and replaced with Chris Tabor. Tepper hired Dave Canales as the new head coach for 2024, and you would think his top job duty would be to work with Young and unlock his potential. 

Apparently that was just a two week project. The Bryce Young era ... despite all of the capital used to acquire the pick to draft him ... lasted just 18 games. That's Tapper in a nutshell during his time in Charlotte.

The Panthers have had six head coaches since Tepper bought the team in 2018. They had four under previous owner Jerry Richardson from 1995 to 2017 (22 years). That's usually a huge red flag of a bad owner -- one that's impatient and meddlesome. Tepper was the guy who wanted Young and, it seems, everyone had to play along. It has long been rumored that Reich didn't want Young ... but Tepper gets what he wants. During his short reign as Carolina's head coach, Reich admitted that Tepper would meet with him and go over on field ideas. 

Just yesterday after the Panthers' 26-3 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, Canales said that Young is still his starting quarterback. Well, that ended today when Canales magically changed his mind on the matter. When asked by the media if Tepper had any input on the decision, Canales answered by saying he wanted to keep that "private". 

That said a lot. 

So either Tepper meddles in personnel decisions, or he hires people who aren't good at their job. He hired Canales and general manager Dan Morgan this offseason ... and neither of them were responsible for drafting Young. But both were tasked with making him successful, and they seemed to think that it wasn't going to happen after just two weeks. The team traded away its top receiver and valuable draft picks to acquire Young and are ready to throw him away. 

Think about this: they traded two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks and DJ Moore for Bryce Young. That means they traded their best receiver (Moore) and all that to get Young, who they are now throwing away. They also traded Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers for a second, third, fourth and fifth round pick in 2022. This offseason, they also traded linebacker Brian Burns for a second and fifth round pick. So they traded arguably their three best players and four draft picks (including two first round picks) and got one first round pick out of all of that... and that was the one they used to draft Young.

Now, I want to stress that this isn't about how Young is a victim of being drafted into a poor organization. Well, he sort of is, but he has played poorly and under most circumstances the Panthers would be right to bench him for Andy Dalton. Dalton was once a decent starter for nine years with the Cincinnati Bengals but has spent the last five years as a backup or mentor for a young QB in Dallas, New Orleans, Chicago and Carolina. He's been astute at picking his jobs, as he's ended up starting 30 games over the last four seasons, and will add to that total starting in Week 3. 

Young has been really, really bad and hasn't shown anything close to improvement. If the Panthers hadn't given up so much for him, benching him would make sense. Maybe it does anyway if he has lost the locker room or he's in such a bad place that sitting for a bit and learning from the sidelines is truly the best idea to crack open his potential. Young may never be a starter in the NFL again. Or he could be like Darnold and Mayfield and just needs to get away from Charlotte and into a functional organization that can foster their talent. 

There's no doubt that the Panthers will be a better offense with Dalton running it. He's experienced and understands the assignment. Still, how much better will the Panthers be? The roster isn't talented enough to compete for the NFC South title ... let alone a playoff spot. Dalton is in his 14th season and isn't the future of the franchise. Young may not be, either, but the organization felt he was at one point and may be best served to ride this thing out. Even if Young continues to struggle, they'd probably get one of the top picks in the draft where they could move on from Young and draft his replacement. 

Of course, that's not happening. As Tepper did with Reich ... and Matt Rhule ... and Ron Rivera ... he's ready to move on to the next thing. Maybe that would even mean ditching Canales. Who knows? This is a guy who argues with critics, shows up to local businesses that troll him, and throw drinks at fans. There have been reports of a stressful and dysfunctional environment within the organization. There have been plenty of promises that haven't been kept and projects that never got off the ground. To many NFL observers, Tepper's Panthers has taken over the title as worst owner and franchise now that Snyder sold the Commanders (but Snyder is by far a worse owner than Tepper could ever dream to be).

That means nothing to Panthers fans, who want nothing more than for Tepper to sell the team. This was a franchise that went 17-1 and played in a Super Bowl in February 2016 that has yet to have a winning record since he took over just two years later. They are 31-70 since Tepper took over -- worst record in the NFL during that span. While I am not a fan, I'm a Charlottean and many of my family and friends are Panther fans who are sick of Tepper and what he's done to this franchise. Maybe he'll realize he can get a great return on his investment and sell the franchise for twice what he paid for it and the fans can get what they want.

Bench Tepper. 

What Is The Future Of The Mountain West?

With the Pac-12 announcing that they'll be taking Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State away from the Mountain West, of course speculation is about who the Pac-12 is coming for next. After all, the league needs to add at least two more members in order to be compliant to the NCAA as a conference in 2026.

Another question looming is the status of the Mountain West Conference. To be frank, it is on edge. 

Let's recap who remains in the Mountain West: Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming and Hawaii (football member only).

COULD MORE SCHOOLS LEAVE

Yes. As I already mentioned, the Pac-12 needs to add two more schools and there is a chance they could come from the Mountain West. There is a thought that if the Pac-12 truly wanted more MW schools than they would've already been brought over in the initial news last week, but that may just be the first step in a series of steps for the Pac-12 to resurrect their conference.

UNLV remains, likely, the most attractive candidate for the Pac-12. They are a football program on the rise, they have basketball history, and bring in a city that is highly desirable to the old Pac-12 and whatever the new version looks like. One problem is that Nevada could be tied to UNLV and the Wolf Pack aren't that wanted. Still, that could be a play the Pac-12 is forced to make.

Outside of the Rebels, Air Force and Wyoming may be the only schools truly interesting to the Pac-12.

WAIT, HOW DID WE GET HERE ANYWAY?

Here is the key to the whole thing. When the Pac-12 imploded and became just a two-team league (Oregon State, Washington State), those schools tried desperately to hang on to the value of the Pac-12. That not only means the name and the history, but the financial advantages left behind from the departing members (such as units earned from NCAA tournament successes, for example). They got that, which gave them financial flexibility to make some moves.

Oregon State and Washington State went into an agreement with the West Coast Conference to become affiliate members in basketball and a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West in football. Basically the MW will play seven conference games with each of the schools playing either Oregon State or Washington State once. To many, this seemed like the the beginnings of some sort of relationship between the two leagues, but what would that be?

Would the Pac-12 try to take MW schools? Would the MW take the Pac-12 schools? Would there be some sort of merger between the two leagues in order to consolidate their advantages? 

Earlier this month, the MW announced that they weren't willing to extend that football scheduling partnership for 2025. Soon after, the Pac-12 struck with the news of taking four MW schools. With the money the Pac-12 has built up, they are willing to help pay those school's exit fees as well as pay the MW for "poaching" the schools away (which was also part of the agreement between the two leagues). That poaching clause made the MW feel comfortable that the Pac-12 couldn't afford to take their schools nor would the school feel it was in the financial interests to leave the MW. What the Pac-12 was able to do with their war chest changed matters ... as well as the thinking that there is a broadcast deal out there for them that's worth more than what the MW has. 

This miscalculation by the MW could lead to their demise. For one, they had 33% of their members just leave for a conference that was hanging on by a thread. Second off, those members happen to be the most attractive schools to broadcasters and will not be replaced easily -- if at all. Not only does it look like the Pac-12 is able to grab a broadcast deal better than what the MW has now, it will also drastically lower the MW's deal when it comes up in a couple of years. 

WHAT DO THE CURRENT EIGHT MEMBERS DO?

This is tough. Of course all eight would love to receive their own invites from the Pac-12, but as we've pointed out that likely won't be the case. Maybe one or two schools can nab one, but the others will have to figure out what's next. The Mountain West will essentially be where the Pac-12 has been for the last year or so, except they lack the branding that the Pac-12 owns. 

Those schools could look to leave themselves. Of course, that wouldn't happen immediately since the same exit fees the four departing schools are having to deal with would apply to the other schools. If those schools left, they'd be leaving for Conference USA, the American Athletic Conference or Sun Belt (the MAC will likely be out of the equation).

Obviously the American would be the most attractive option, that league wouldn't want all the MW's inventory. Air Force would be interesting since Army and Navy already play football in the AAC. Right now, North Texas, UTSA and Tulsa are the most western of the current AAC schools so they could possibly be interested in Wyoming or UNLV if either of them were available. Of course, the AAC could see a few of its teams get poached by the Pac-12 (Memphis and Tulane seem to be mentioned the most) and could feel that stacking several MW teams is their best way of building back up.

The Sun Belt would be a stretch since it really doesn't fit with their strategy. Still, it could be an option.

Conference USA may be the best ... albeit sad ... bet. CUSA already has New Mexico State and UTEP, so adding any or all of the MW is very doable. That may not be the most desirable option, but if these schools feel desperate then it could be the straw that breaks the MW's back. Right now, the CUSA is seen as the lowest rung of the FBS conferences, so any MW school leaving for it would basically mean the MW is dead.

COULD THE MOUNTAIN WEST REBUILD?

Certainly. How, is the tricky question. The Mountain West can feel that they have a good enough brand that they can take CUSA schools away. As I mentioned earlier, UTEP and New Mexico State would be good options. So could Texas State, Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech. I'd doubt that any Sun Belt or AAC teams would want to leave the top two Group of 5 leagues for a western league that's gasping for air, so poaching Conference USA would be the more likely option.

The biggest move that the Mountain West could make is looking at several FCS schools to make the jump to FBS. Could it convince Idaho to give FBS a shot again? Maybe Montana and Montana State (they'd be a package deal)? Could North Dakota State and South Dakota State be willing to make the move from dominant FCS programs to the FBS? James Madison and Appalachian State have done so in recent years. If those two come, would North Dakota and South Dakota have to come with them? 

WHAT WOULD BE THE KINDA BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR THE MOUNTAIN WEST?

So let's go ahead and say that the Pac-12 takes UNLV away from the MW ... and that's it. So we are left with Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State, Wyoming and Hawaii. The best case scenario would be to get North Dakota State and South Dakota State to jump from FCS. Maybe add UTEP and New Mexico State from Conference USA. That puts the Mountain West as an 11-team football conference that stays in the geographic footprint but adds the Dakotas. It still allows for growth (maybe Idaho or Sacramento State) if the Pac-12 took someone in addition to UNLV. 

WHAT IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO? 

Basically the conference dies. We've seen buzzards fly around the Big 12 and Pac-12 over the last several years, but both conferences found ways to persevere. Could the Mountain West do the same? Maybe, but both the Big 12 and Pac-12 have assets that the MW just doesn't have which makes it less likely to be able to pull off that kind of resurrection. If the MW is deemed to forgone to save (similar to what happened to the Pac-12 last year), it really may not survive. The geography of the Mountain West makes it difficult to pull in members, which is why the MW and Pac-12 relationship so interesting. They both were looking at possibly ending the other one since they have some shared space. 

When the MW's broadcast deals are up, the numbers for a new deal might look ugly ... or at least less attractive than what Conference USA or someone else may be able to offer. Each school has different needs (hello, Hawaii) so there is no blanket answer for the remaining eight schools. 

ACC ... Go Ahead And Expand Again

Look, I wish things could go back to the way they used to be. My ACC was a nice, fit nine-team alliance when Florida State was added in the early 1990s. The league felt together and everyone played each other twice. I loved those days.

But that's all over and I've accepted that for quite some time. The ACC pulled Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech from the Big East in the early 2000s; yanked Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame and Louisville in the mid-2010s; and became a landing spot for California, Stanford and SMU this year (oh, and they lost Maryland along the way). This will never be that ACC we grew up with ever again. The quicker we understand that it isn't coming back, the quicker we can accept reality and move on.

None of this makes sense anymore, so let's think outside the box. I did so three years ago when I begged the ACC to make a strong move and go after the Pac-12's schools. At the time, I felt the ACC should go grab Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA from the Pac-12 and make a 20 team conference. All of those schools are outstanding academically, which fits what the ACC is about, and it powers up the league with some really solid programs and gets the ACC onto the west coast (namely, LA). It also might .... might ... compel Notre Dame to become a full-time member. I mean, they were already playing five ACC games a season, and adding Stanford and USC (two schools they play each year) to the conference means that the Irish would be playing seven ACC opponents every year. Why not just let them play seven league games to the rest of the members' eight and enjoy all that comes with have Notre Dame as a football member?

At the time, people laughed that the ACC should have no business having members on the Pacific Ocean. "That's silly!" And why would they feel compelled to leave a conference they've been a part of for over 100 years??? Ridiculous!

Fast forward to now and Oregon, USC, UCLA (and Washington) all left the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. Oh, and the ACC now has Stanford and Cal as members. See? I was right, yet the ACC sat back and let everyone cut in front of them first. This could be a fatal move for the league.

My 2024 proposal is kind of the same. We know now that geography doesn't matter. We know the ACC is being held together by its Grant of Rights. We know that tradition "ACC schools" aren't really a thing anymore. So let's swing for the fences. Let's add two more schools.

UConn and Gonzaga.

Both schools have already been looking around, and both notably looked to get into the Big 12. Whatever the reason that hasn't happened yet isn't as important as the fact that both UConn and Gonzaga are willing to jump to a new opportunity. 

Let's start with UConn. Since the Big East reconfigured in the mid-2010s (due, in large part, to the ACC raiding the league), UConn has struggled to find a home. The basketball program helped form the AAC before finally getting back to the Big East a few years ago. The football program has been kicked around as an independent. So why not send them an invite to join the ACC? UConn joining North Carolina, Louisville and Duke in a basketball league? Um, yes, please! So what if they suck in football -- so does Cal and Stanford and we let them in! While it seems like sacrilege for UConn to want to leave the Big East, remember a couple points:

1. They have literally been talking to the Big 12 about possibly joining.

2. The Big East that they are in now is not the Big East they were a part of during the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. UConn was never rivals with Xavier, Butler or Creighton.  I mean, being rivals with Syracuse, Pitt and Boston College again must sound alright. 

3. The football program has nowhere to really go

Point is that if the ACC offered an invite to UConn, they'd strongly consider it. They'd have rivals near them in both football and basketball and would be able to get on the field with some big names. If UConn was considering the Big 12 (their nearest opponents would be West Virginia and Cincinnati) then why not consider the ACC?

Which brings me to Gonzaga. I know it sounds absolutely ridiculous ... but so did what I said three years ago and now that's way more plausible. Gonzaga doesn't have football -- so what? Notre Dame isn't a football member either and we're making it work. Imagine having North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, UConn and Gonzaga in the same hoops league? It is even more intriguing since the ACC now has a western wing to the conference which makes Gonzaga not living on an island out there. With Cal and Stanford now members, Gonzaga has some partners to play alongside. Playing ACC competition heading into the NCAA tournament will definitely have them more ready to perform in March and April.  Plus since the Zags have no football program, their share of the pie (similar to Notre Dame) isn't as big. 

Look, this may be a bit more far-fetched than even my pitch three years ago but the ACC is in survival mode right now. While the ACC doesn't have to do anything at all, making proactive moves seems to be wise right now. That's why they added Cal and Stanford to begin with. With Clemson and Florida State trying their hardest to break free from the conference, there is a lot that's up in the air. 

Pac-12 To Add Four Mountain West Schools And Is Back In Business

Late Wednesday night reports swirled that the Pac-12 conference ... which consists of just Oregon State and Washington State ... will be adding Mountain West members Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State. Some bullet points on this:

SO WHAT HAPPENED?

This puts the conference at six members. For now, the NCAA allows the Pac-12 to be under the mandatory eight member threshold for two years (which would be the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 seasons), which means the league must find two more schools to join them before that time frame ends. The four new schools will join the Pac-12 in 2026.

There are financial dealings which I won't go too in depth on, but it is important to note that the Pac-12 will help pay the four schools exit fees from the Mountain West as well as paying the MW a "poacher's fee", which was agreed to when the two leagues decided to do sports business this school year. The Pac-12 is able to do this because they've amassed a war chest due to keeping money and benefits the ten schools that bolted left behind. 

Since the Pac-12 watched those ten schools leave, there has been a lot of speculation over what will happen next. Would the Pac-12 rebuild be adding some Mountain West teams? Would the two Pac-12 teams join the Mountain West or another conference? Would the Pac-12 and Mountain West merge? There were other options, but those three were the most likely outcomes ... and the first one seems to have played out. 

The Pac-12 adds Boise State, who fits nicely with both Washington State (which is a six hour drive away) and Oregon State (about an eight hour drive). Boise State blasted on the scene about 15 years ago and has been one of the more popular candidates to make the jump to a Power 5 conference. Adding San Diego State and Fresno State gets the league back into California after losing all four of their schools from that state over the summer. Both have had solid football programs over the years. Colorado State may not have that kind of success, but they do bring the Denver area somewhat back to the Pac-12 after losing Colorado. 

WHO COULD JOIN THE PAC-12 NEXT? 

That's a good question. Typically conferences say that they're done with expansion for the moment once they do add schools ... even if that ends up not being true. But we all know that the Pac-12 cannot be done expanding since they must get to that eight member requirement by 2026, so this should move pretty quickly. 

Let me just start out by saying there is next to no way that Cal and Stanford return to the Pac-12. That seems to be the popular sentiment, but it really doesn't make much sense when you look at the reason most realignment happens -- money. When Cal and Stanford joined the ACC, they signed the same Grant of Rights deal that Florida State and Clemson are trying so hard to find a way out of. So there's no way the ACC willingly allows Cal and Stanford to go back to the Pac-12 right in front of Florida State and Clemson (who are in lawsuits against the ACC). A move like that would be devastating for the ACC since it would kick open the door for any school that wants out to do so ... and Florida State and Clemson could be joined by North Carolina, Virginia, Miami and others. The entire reason that the ACC even added Cal and Stanford was to keep the conference from imploding, so it makes no sense for them to trigger that happening.

Also understand that Cal and Stanford willingly opted to leave Oregon State and Washington State behind because they didn't want to risk being left with nothing and they felt that an invite from the ACC was better than whatever a new Pac-12 would look like. I mean, Cal and Stanford could've just joined the Mountain West instead of the ACC if the new Pac-12 was attractive to them. Right now they are in a Power 4 conference ... something that this new Pac-12 isn't guaranteed to be part of. The Pac-12 won't be able to cobble together any broadcast deal better than what they have with the ACC ... even if they agreed to a discounted rate. And Stanford playing conference games against Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Louisville is much more high profile than anything the Pac-12 offers. Cal and Stanford also enjoy the academic profile of the ACC. 

Sure, geography of the whole thing makes sense, but not much else does at the moment.

So who does make sense? There are more Mountain West schools to choose from, but the problem that league has is there is some real dead weight at the bottom. Wyoming makes sense from a geography standpoint and they've been a solid program, but do they attract eyes? I can see UNLV getting in because it brings in Las Vegas, but the football program has been bad for quite some time. Aside from that there is slim pickings. Air Force? Maybe. Nevada has been really, really bad. San Jose State has turned itself around, but are they that attractive? Same goes for Utah State and New Mexico. You also have to consider that if the Pac-12 was looking at adding any of these other Mountain West schools ... wouldn't they have done so with the four they've already offered? 

Maybe the Pac-12 looks more towards the midwest. Memphis could be really attractive. Like Boise State, it seems to have been on the short list of Group of 5 schools ready to move up. Tulane could also be a nice addition if they decide to go that route. That would also open up the possibility of UTSA, UTEP or North Texas. Louisiana Tech? 

See, that's the problem. There really aren't many great options out there. None of the Power 4 schools would leave to go to the Pac-12 and the Group of 5 possibilities aren't very sparkling. Still, they must add at least two schools. I think UNLV and Wyoming are the more likely candidates, unless they go after Memphis and UTSA. Heck, maybe they go after all four schools. 

A dark horse possibility is if the Pac-12 could convince North Dakota State and South Dakota State to make the step up from FCS to FBS.  

WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE MOUNTAIN WEST?

Obviously the Mountain West is pissed about this. Once the Pac-12 was gutted, pretty much everyone felt that they would dance around with the Mountain West and that's what has happened. Being mad doesn't help anything (ask the Big East in the mid-2000s) so they need to get to work.

First thing's first: is anyone else leaving? We already discussed that the Pac-12 could go after UNLV, Wyoming or others so it is difficult for the MW to make a plan when they aren't sure what's going to be left of their conference. Even so, they've got to be looking at Conference USA and the American conferences for new members. Of course, those candidates will also be hoping the Pac-12 asks them out to the prom first, so this could take some time. 

We do know that right now the MW is: Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State and Wyoming in all sports and Hawaii in football-only. That eight member requirement that I mentioned earlier for the Pac-12? Well that applies to the MW who now only has eight football members and seven for other sports. Starting today, the MW needs to be looking at who to bring in. 

The same teams I mentioned above would be MW candidates. The MW could really dig into Texas by adding UTEP, UTSA, Rice and North Texas. Maybe Louisiana Tech or UAB? 

There is something else to consider: What if other leagues begin to poach the Mountain West?  That is a legitimate question, especially when you consider that the MW hasn't had a team in the New Year's Six game since 2014. Could The American or Sun Belt really be able to begin pulling teams out of the Mountain West? I mean, if the Pac-12 goes after Memphis and Tulane, for example, why wouldn't the AAC be proactive and look at schools like New Mexico or Air Force (the AAC already has Army and Navy in the league as football members). Maybe that also leads to Wyoming or UNLV as travel partners with those schools. As we saw with the Pac-12 just one year ago, if members begin questioning where they are at and looking to jump ship, this could get out of hand really quickly. 

Sportz NFL Week 1 Recap

Just a quick recap of what I saw in my Sportz Room -- filled with TVs that I can watch all games going on at the same time.

GAME OF THE WEEK: Chiefs over Ravens. Can we get that for the AFC Championship? There was buzz with the defending champs against the reigning MVP; this being the first game of the season; and the game was well played. And it all came down to a toe landing out of bounds in the endzone.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Patriots over Bengals. This is a stunner, but signs were there. The Patriots were looked at as one of the worst teams in the NFL entering the season, while the Bengals ... with a healthy Joe Burrow ... were a possible challenger to the two-time defending champion Chiefs. Yet New England, with new head coach Jerod Mayo, went into Cincinnati and beat the Bengals. Cincinnati didn't have Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase played despite sitting all preseason. The concern comes from Burrow, who is coming back from wrist surgery and looked pretty uncomfortable on the sideline. 

DOMINANT PERFORMANCE OF THE WEEK: Saints over Panthers. Look, Carolina isn't very good. We knew this. But, man, are they really this bad? Derek Carr looked like Drew Brees out there just picking the Panthers defense apart. Everybody ate with the Saints 47-10 win. The question now turns to if Bryce Young really is that guy for the Panthers. I feel it is a bit early for those types of conversations, but this organization is trending towards having the worst record in the NFL for the second straight season and this time they'll get to keep that No. 1 overall pick. 

DUD OF THE WEEK: 49ers over Jets. Honestly, this isn't my thinking. I'm high on the Niners and down on the Jets. I didn't expect Aaron Rodgers to walk into Santa Clara after playing just four snaps since January 2023 and light up one of the better defenses in the NFL. But a lot of people have big plans for New York and that didn't look promising. Not only was the Jets offense a bit off, their vaunted defense was pushed around by one of the most physical teams in the league. 

STORYLINE OF THE WEEK: Quarterback play was iffy. Preseason is down to just three games now and we rarely see starters play anymore -- especially quarterbacks. It seemed to show all over the league this weekend. Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins looked rusty after coming back from injuries. Rookies Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix struggled in their first games. But Deshaun Watson was horrible. Daniel Jones looked like his time in New York is over. Bryce Young's honeymoon is fading fast. Trevor Lawrence didn't look like he was worth the contract he signed this offseason. Jordan Love didn't look like the guy who dominated the second half of last season (then he got hurt). There certainly were some great performances by guys like Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr and CJ Stroud to name a few, but this was a soft start for some of the QBs.

ESPN/DirecTV Dispute Shows Us One Major Point

I don't want to use this space to get into the Disney dispute with DirecTV that caused its networks to be blacked out on it service. We are in Day 4 of this showdown with no end in sight, causing 11.3 million viewers to be without Disney channels ... most notably ESPN.

For full disclosure, I am one of those viewers.

I'm not going to get into my frustration with this here -- I have vented elsewhere to people representing both sides. I will however point out one thing that is very evident in this battle. It's about the games, stupid.

The games.

When programming was pulled on Sunday night right before the LSU-USC college football game (and during the US Open), people were pissed. They've been pissed that they missed Boston College upsetting Florida State on Monday night. And they will be extremely pissed starting Friday when they will begin missing college football games. Then imagine what it will be like when we get to Monday night and the Jets-49ers Monday Night Football game is blacked out for DirecTV subscribers. 

Which that's getting to my point ... and this is mainly pointed at ESPN.

No one is whining they are missing Stephen A. Smith shouting on First Take. No one is complaining that they can't get their daily update on the Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets or the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback situation on GetUp!. No one is upset they can't watch two curmudgeons groan on Pardon The Interruption or a bunch of "columnists" banter topics on Around The Horn. We want our games. We want the games you guys spend the hours of 1am to 7pm Eastern Time screaming about.

ESPN taught us that we don't really need SportsCenter anymore. They admitted that we can go to YouTube or somewhere else to find the big sports clips of the day and get our sports news in real time via Twitter or whatever just as they do. Aside from their overnight content, SportsCenter has been reduced to a rerun of all the stuff people are talking about on all their other shows. What was once sports fans most important times of the day has been reduced to goofy jokes with some sports background. Even NFL Primetime, a show that was my lifeblood on Sundays growing up, has been relegated to ESPN+ content. And I do watch it every single Sunday during the NFL season.  

It is the games, stupid. 

I'm sure that ESPN knows that since they've done everything they can to make sure they've gobbled up as much live sports content they can. NFL? They have Monday Night Football. NBA? They are the top tier and home of the NBA Finals. MLB? They've got plenty. College sports? They have the SEC, ACC and the College Football Playoff as well as the top place for big time college hoops matchups. They also have plenty of other sports and events, just like the US Open I'm now missing. 

They know this, which is what sucks. This stalemate was going to last at least until this weekend. The game of chicken would play out while DirecTV customers are missing 19 college football games this weekend and, possibly, the Jets-49ers game on Monday night. 

ESPN also knows that I don't have to watch Sunday NFL Countdown this Sunday morning before Week 1 of the NFL season. I can switch over to NFL Network's NFL Gameday Morning instead. I've already said I don't need them for highlight shows since they've moved away from caring about that. They know they've spent a lot of money on these broadcast rights and have spent the last several years retooling their books by letting go some big name talent while paying a ton for Mike Greenberg, Stephen A. Smith, Joe Buck, Pat McAfee and Troy Aikman.

They are aware that this is a game of chicken that could be costly for both sides, but are banking that people will drop DirecTV for another service (pssst. they do this to all those services, too) before they switch to another network for their sports. They just hope we don't get used to going other places for content, especially when FOX, Amazon and NBC have made huge moves taking some of these events back. Plus, ESPN has fumbled some opportunities (their NBA studio show is horrific and they've been destroyed for breaking up their top NBA broadcast team and then watch two replacements leave for coaching jobs) and made some unpopular decisions regarding their talent (hello, RG3!). 

One thing ESPN does really well is the games. I can go all day not watching ESPN, but the games will always matter. Even if ESPN forgets that at times, the reality is that they entire thing is built on the actual competitions. Both ESPN and DirecTV are about to find out how important that is for their customers. Of course DirecTV's customers are its subscribers while ESPN's is its broadcast partners (like DirecTV) and its advertisers. If the advertisers who just paid boat loads of money to have their commercials and ads connected to ESPN events that are blacked out to 11.3 million people, the pressure will be on. 

Sportz' NFL Predictions

Here we go once again:

AFC EAST
1. Bills*
2. Dolphins*
3. Jets
4. Patriots

AFC SOUTH
1. Texans*
2. Jaguars
3. Colts
4. Titans

AFC NORTH
1. Bengals*
2. Ravens*
3. Browns*
4. Steelers

AFC WEST
1. Chiefs*
2. Chargers
3. Broncos
4. Raiders

NFC EAST
1. Eagles*
2. Cowboys*
3. Commanders
4. Giants

NFC SOUTH
1. Falcons*
2. Buccaneers
3. Saints
4. Panthers

NFC NORTH
1. Lions*
2. Packers*
3. Bears
4. Vikings

NFC WEST
1. 49ers*
2. Rams*
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

SUPER BOWL: Eagles over Ravens

Sorry, it's too boring to pick the Chiefs. 

Ja'Marr Chase vs Bengals

Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals contract situation. Here's my take.

*Chase is "holding-in" because he wants his contract extension. He is entering into Year 4 of his 4-year rookie deal (his base salary will be $1.055M). The Bengals have the right to offer him a 5th-year option ($22M) for 2025, which they have. His extension would be for 2026 and beyond.

*The Bengals do have Chase under contract for two more seasons (2004 and 2025). They don't have to do anything. I'll get into rookie deals in a second but Chase has no flexibility within that deal to do anything. If the Bengals franchise him in 2026, then he has a small bit of flexibility, but not much.

*Understand Chase's current contract. Every draft pick operates under a rookie scale. Meaning no matter who was selected with the 5th pick in the 2021 draft, they were going to get the same contract Chase did. There is no real negotiating. The contract is locked. So Chase had zero ability to maximize his value on the contract he's currently on. Either he signs it or he doesn't have a job playing football.

*Five key things to remember from Chase's point of view.

1. He's outperformed his current contract so getting his extension done now would be his security for the future locked in as well as signing bonus money in his pocket now.

2. As the graphic shows you, the other big time receivers in the 2021 draft class have already got their bags. So to the people whining "he's got two years left", he's seeing that his contemporaries who he was outplayed get their money. He wants his.

3. The "he has two years left" crowd forgets that the Bengals did Joe Burrow's extension last year when Burrow had ... say it with me ... two years left on his rookie deal. Sure, Burrow is a QB but it is well known that both those guys are the true franchise players who are the foundation of the Bengals present and future. At least that's what Chase thought until now.

4. Tee Higgins and Jesse Bates were both franchised by the Bengals. So, in Chase's mind, he can see a path where the organization does nothing but make him play out his last two years, and then franchise him for $40M in 2026. While Bates is a bit of a different situation because he is a safety, Higgins plays the same position as Chase and both players weren't dealt with in good faith. That's because ...

5. Mike Brown owns the Bengals. As well as the Bengals have done the last 20 years, it's been more about drafting talent than retaining it or adding expensive players. Aside from QBs (Palmer, Dalton, Burrow), the organization hasn't been keen on dropping a lot of money on other guys.

*Chase isn't going to get any cheaper. Understand that a new Chase deal doesn't replace his current one. He will be paid $1.055M this season even if he gets his extension done. That's why it is called an EXTENSION. and the 5th year option of $22M for 2025 still would be a thing. So the contract they are battling over is for 2026 and beyond. Having said that, Chase's pice isn't getting cheaper. In fact, in just a week it got more expensive since the Cowboys signed CeeDee Lamb to a new deal. Waiting one year won't make Chase's price go down. He could skip all of camp and practices by sitting all the way up to next Sunday and then continue to work on the deal ... and it will keep getting more expensive.

*Both sides are afraid of ... injury. The Bengals don't want to pay for an extension now because, what if Chase blows out his knee or something and are now on the hook for all that money? Chase wants a deal because, what if he blows out his knee or something and his price plummets?

*To me, it is absolutely ridiculous the Bengals haven't got this done. All the other 2021 receivers got their extensions and Chase has been better than all of them. Not just better, but he is clearly a major part of what the foundation of this franchise. The Eagles (Smith) and Dolphins (Waddle) already have another great receiver signed. Cincinnati does not. You passed up drafting a OT (both candidates for that spot are now All-Pros) to draft Chase and you aren't taking care of him?

Sportz' College Football Predictions

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Florida State. This won't be as good of a team as last season's undefeated squad, but they are good enough to repeat as conference champs. Replacing Jordan Travis at QB will be a challenge, but they think DJ Uiagalelei can come back to the ACC and fare better.

SLEEPER: Miami. They have the talent and transfer QB Cam Ward is the real deal. Will Mario Cristobal get out of the way?

WATCH OUT FOR: SMU. The newcomers have a lot of swagger entering the ACC. 

BIG TEN CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Ohio State. The Buckeyes have everything they need to win a national championship. They are arguably the most talented team in the country. Add in an urgency to, well, beat Michigan and make a title run and Ohio State has a laser focus on their goals.

SLEEPER: Penn State. Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon are the big dogs, but Penn State has been liberated by the new Big Ten. No longer muffled by being in a division with Ohio State and Michigan, the Nittany Lions have a greater shot at making a move toward a playoff spot. 

WATCH OUR FOR: Iowa. The Hawkeyes' offense has been a running joke over the last few years, but with a new offensive coordinator and Michigan transfer Cade McNamara things could be changing in Iowa. 

BIG 12 CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Utah. I just love Utah's physicality and their grit which will serve them well in the Big 12. If Cam Rising can put up another (healthy) fantastic season, I think this conference is set up for the Utes.

SLEEPER: Kansas. The Jayhawks have QB Jalon Daniels and a decent recruiting class coming in to try to ... win the Big 12? 

WATCH OUT FOR: UCF. Gus Malzahn has been successful at a high level and they nabbed Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson to run their offense. If the defense can do anything, this could be a team that makes a run towards a conference title game. 

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Georgia. Duh. 

SLEEPER: Ole Miss. This just feels like Lane Kiffin's time in Oxford. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Missouri. The Tigers quietly went 11-2 last season and beat a weakened Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Their two losses were to LSU and their Heisman Trophy winning QB, and at Georgia. Eliah Drinkwitz has a good thing going in Columbia. 

PAC-12 CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Washington State. I just think they're the better team

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Memphis. The Tigers have the best quarterback, the best receivers and just enough defense to win the AAC. 

SLEEPER: Tulane. I really think the Green Wave did well replacing Willie Fritz with Jon Sumrall. Makhi Hughes rushed for over 1,300 yards a year ago and will be a workhorse again. 

WATCH OUT FOR: South Florida. I really like what Alex Golesh has done in Tampa. He's been recruiting extremely well after finally breaking out of the basement last season. The offense has continuity. 

CONFERENCE USA

CHAMP: Liberty. Frankly they are the best team in this conference and I don't think it's close. They have an elite offense and enough playmakers on defense to stuff the rest of the league. I think they win the CUSA going away. 

SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. Probably the second most talented team in the conference. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Jacksonville State. Rich Rodriguez will usually put together a zany offense that defenses struggle to deal with.

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Miami-OH. The defending champs bring back a large chunk of their offensive starters. 

SLEEPER: Toledo. If the Rockets can find a QB who can utilize those fantastic receivers, they could make a run at a MAC title. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Northern Illinois. Antario Brown. Antario Brown. Antario Brown.

MOUNTAIN WEST

CHAMP: Boise State. Ashton Jeanty could be the best player in the Group of 5. 

SLEEPER: UNLV. Barry Odom did wonders in Vegas last season. I expect it to get even better in 2024. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Colorado State. Jay Norvell has this program on the right track and should reach their first bowl since 2017. This defense has the potential to get much better. 

SUN BELT CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Appalachian State. The Mountaineers got hot late last season and made a run to the Sun Belt title game. I think that momentum continues into this season. 

SLEEPER: Texas State. G.J. Kinne is doing his thing at Texas State. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Arkansas State. Hey man, I like their skill guys (almost all of those starters return) and I'm taking a chance on a Butch Jones clutch moment. 

PLAYOFFS

BYES: Georgia, Ohio State, Utah, Florida State

G5 CHAMP: Memphis

AT LARGE:  Alabama, Texas, Oregon, Notre Dame, Missouri, Penn State, Miami

NATIONAL CHAMPION: Georgia

UNC In the Big 12??? My Comments To a Podcast

I'm not typically a podcast guy, but one I do follow regularly is Isaac Schade's "Locked On Tar Heels". As a North Carolina Tar Heels fan, I like to be informed on what's going on with the Heels and to have some of my thoughts either confirmed or downgraded. During this free agency period of offseason roster reconstruction, I find it a useful tool to see what may be going on behind the scenes in Chapel Hill. I may not technically be one of Schade's "everydayers", but I do catch two or three episodes a week.

The other day, an interesting departure from the normal Tar Heel talk was an episode where Schade was being interviewed by a "Locked On Big 12" podcast where the discussion was about the possibility of UNC joining the Big 12 in some fashion. I hadn't considered that to be a serious option so the episode grabbed my interest ... so much so that I feel compelled to write this about it. Anything is possible in this day and age of college athletics, but I'm not feeling this as a possiblity.

SHOULD UNC THINK ABOUT JOINING THE BIG 12?

In short, no. As Mr. Schade remarked (very diplomatically, I may add), joining the Big 12 is the worst likely scenario on UNC's plate. Keeping the ACC together in a successful model is at the front of the wish list. After than comes a likely invitation from either the Big Ten or SEC (I'll get to that in a moment). If UNC ends up in the Big 12 then something horribly wrong happened. I mean that as no disrespect to the Big 12 which, honestly, has been a better conference in basketball of late and is quite a formidable football league. 

My issue is that UNC fits with the Big Ten or SEC much, much, much better than the Big 12. While not technically a catastrophic option, it is an option that really would be a loss for the UNC program. 

WHY NOT THE BIG 12?

Let's just pretend for the moment that UNC would entertain this alongside a Big Ten or SEC invite. First off, the Big 12 isn't as financially attractive as the Big Ten or SEC ... who are leading the way of conference realignment. There's more money in being a member of the Big Ten or SEC. Second is the geographical and historical context of what North Carolina wants in a new league. Obviously UNC fits in the geographic footprint of the SEC, and would be part of a new geographic footprint of the Big Ten. 

The SEC is filled with programs that UNC is very familiar with. South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and this little rivalry with Alabama blooming. While the Big Ten has grown to a cross country conference, UNC fits with the academic profile of the league as an AAU school. UNC has also had a historical bond with the Big Ten with the now-defunct ACC/Big Ten Challenge that went on for decades and their battles with their programs -- Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and, obviously, Maryland. 

That doesn't really exist with the Big 12. There is the UNC-Kansas thing which would be very attractive, but not really anything else. While the SEC is more geographically compact and the the Big Ten has sort of a midwestern hub of schools, the Big 12 is kinda all over the place. Then again, so is the ACC right now. 

In short, North Carolina doesn't feel like a Big 12 school. 

Look, the Big 12 should be commended. This league was almost dead two years ago when Texas and Oklahoma were lured away to the SEC. They've done a fantastic job not only holding the league together but turning into a league that may end up surviving while the Pac-12 died and the ACC is the one on life support. They had the foresight to bring in the best of the Group of 5 programs to fill its roster and jump on the Pac-12 before the ACC did. Side note: I will forever be angry that the ACC did not go after USC, UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Stanford and Washington before the Big Ten did. I wrote about this two years ago and I feel could be the worst decision the ACC didn't make in its history. 

WHAT WOULD BE GOOD ABOUT GOING TO THE BIG 12?

Imagine that I'm really looking in to this. There is obviously that basketball attractiveness of the Big 12. If the ACC imploded and there was a block of ACC schools like Duke or Virginia willing to move with UNC to the Big 12, imagine what that hoops conference would look like.

UNC, Duke and Virginia have won national championships over the last decade. So has the Big 12's Kansas (ugh, we know) and Baylor. Texas Tech lost to Virginia in the 2019 NCAA tournament final. Newcomer Arizona is a tier or two below blue blood status. Houston has built itself up to be a power again. Iowa State is a really good program. BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas State, West Virginia and Utah have had their moments. That would be a basketball-centric league that would appease the Heels' more hoops-minded fans. 

As far as football, well that's hard to say. The Big 12's biggest football powers (Texas, Oklahoma) are leaving so there is a power vacuum that needs to be filled. With no obvious power school to block success like the ACC (Clemson, Florida State), SEC (Georgia, Alabama) or Big Ten (Michigan, Ohio State), there is a better chance for the Tar Heels to make some noise in the Big 12. There are some good programs left, but none are historical powers like the six I just named. North Carolina could compete just as well as they have in the ACC.

FORGET THE BIG 12. WHAT DOES UNC WANT WITH ITS FIRST OPTION OF STAYING IN THE ACC?

This one is hard. First off, UNC is a flagship program of the ACC and has found success in football and basketball ... among other sports. What UNC says in ACC affairs matters. Not only are they an O.G. of the conference with major successes, they also reside smack dab in the hub of the conference. While the influence of the Big Four North Carolina schools isn't as powerful as it was in the 20th century, it still is a North Carolina-centric league with the league offices in nearby Charlotte. Leaving to go anywhere else means UNC is a new guy at the club and doesn't have any of the earned power it has in the ACC.

But what would an ACC look like going forward?

That's really hard to say. My genuine hope is that the ACC can stay together for a long as they can and at least get to the part of the story where college football decides to separate and form its own entity. What that could mean for Carolina and the ACC is that football goes off to be this super league but leaves all the other stuff behind. So North Carolina would be part of this new super football league where they they would be part of some new division playing a new way ... but the ACC is still intact for basketball and other sports. That could put the ACC in a power position to begin forming a more basketball-centric league. You may begin to see a sort of reverse-realignment where geography may matter more to schools since the football money comes from this super league. 

For instance: UNC and most of the rest of the ACC now plays football in the new super league. UNC plays in the Atlantic Division of this league with a lot of the schools they are currently in the ACC. Money comes from the TV contracts that get shared throughout that super league and there's no need to have these bastardized leagues (like having Cal and Stanford in the ACC) we are seeing now. 

You could, theoretically, see the Pac-12 get back together since there's no need for USC, UCLA, Oregon or Washington to be in the Big Ten. They get their football money from this super league and may rather go back to the perks of the Pac-12's everything else. That means Cal and Stanford are back where they should be. 

On this side of the country, the ACC is a more stable league with Clemson and Florida State good with their membership since their football programs are now cashing in. We go back to where football doesn't drive these decisions because everyone is taken care of. It may be an idealistic approach to this, but it is one I am clinging on to.

OKAY, BUT THE ACC DOES IMPLODE AND LOOKS ELSEWHERE? WHAT IS THE NUMBER 2 OPTION?

The Big Ten. North Carolina fancies itself more as a Big Ten school than an SEC one. So do I. North Carolina is an AAU school just like every one of the Big Ten schools (Nebraska used to be, but isn't anymore). Not just that, but UNC has a very diverse program of 28 sports ... and so does the Big Ten. The SEC doesn't sanction as many sports, so UNC would have to find homes for them somewhere else. As any UNC fan knows, this is a school that prides itself of having fantastic programs like field hockey, soccer, wrestling, golf, etc and wants to find stable homes for all of them. 

The Big Ten makes sense.

The SEC makes sense as well, but not as much. There are the obvious regional fits and rivalries that we've touched on. UNC in the SEC would mean a much more compact conference that would actually condense UNC's conference footprint. Right now, the SEC shares land with the ACC in South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Kentucky (well, and Texas with SMU's move to the ACC). A move to the Big Ten would mean UNC would be in a more mid-west centric league with four schools on the Pacific Coast. The SEC would be as west as Texas and as north as Kentucky. The SEC is the premiere league for football, so it would jolt the competition in that sport -- for better or worse. The SEC is also an emerging basketball conference with another blue blood sitting there in Kentucky.  

The Big Ten is a more desirable home due to academics and sports profile, but the SEC is a more than adequate landing spot. 

WHAT IS IT THAT WE DO KNOW RIGHT NOW?

Well, that North Carolina should not be a school that is scared right now. UNC has some power. As far as the ACC goes, North Carolina has irons is a few fires ... both in regards to keeping the ACC intact as well as leaving the league. If the ACC implodes, UNC has positioned itself to be a very desirable school that the Big Ten, SEC and the Big 12 would love to add. UNC doesn't need to worry like Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia Tech or even NC State, Duke or Wake Forest. UNC is a driver in all of this and should be able to have a set at one of the big tables ... even if it is a seismic change that fans aren't wanting. 

While Clemson and Florida State are now fighting the ACC for their freedom, UNC can sit back and let them get dirt on their hands while calmly strategizing their next moves. If Clemson and Florida State are successful in breaking away, North Carolina could be right out the door with them and land a Big Ten or SEC invite. If the ACC holds together this thing via legal and financial means, UNC can focus on being leaders in the league. 

North Carolina isn't desperate right now and seems to be holding a good hand. 

How Sportz' "NCAA College Football Playoff" Subdivision Would Look Like

Pretty much nobody but NCAA member presidents and their accountants love all of the conference realignment/expansion/poaching going on over the last 20 years. It is all about football cash grabs and the rest of the sports be damned. That's why we will soon have UCLA playing a Big Ten hoops schedule and not Arizona anymore. Why the Big 12 stretches from Denver to Orlando and why longtime ACC members North Carolina and Wake Forest had to schedule non-conference matchups just so they could play each other once in a while (yet they'll have to play Stanford and Cal). It's why we may lose the Pac-12 conference.

It's stupid and postponing the inevitable: a breakaway mega-super-duper conference.

That's cool ... for football. But the collateral damage has been swift and killed of many of the great things about college athletics. Rivalries ripped apart and conferences that feel more like Zoom meetings than an actual fraternity of schools.  

I wish that the NCAA and the schools just went ahead and separated football from the other sports and went ahead and formed a new subdivision. Doing so might have allowed the conferences to keep their integrity with the other sports (ahem, like our old Big East).

The College Football Playoff Subdivision. 

We used to have Division I-A and Division I-AA, which we now refer to as the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). The FBS are the schools you know and love, the ones who played in bowls at the end of the season. The FCS are those smaller schools that played in a playoff format to determine their champion. Of course the FBS now has a playoff that will expand next year and has developed a tier system of "Power 5" and "Group of 5" in their own subdivision. 

So why not just place the current ACC's 17 schools, the Big Ten's 18 schools, the Big 12's 16 schools, the Pac-12's 2 schools, the SEC's 16 schools, and Notre Dame ... plus one more school ... to form a 70-team subdivision. 

That gives us 7 "divisions" of 10 teams. Each division will play everyone else in it one time, and then three non-division games against whoever the CFP schedule makers decide. Of course, the schedule makers could consider traditional rivalries as part of that (like Notre Dame-USC), but let them decide. We would have seven division champions and add nine at-large bids for a 16-team College Football Playoff. I've been saying this is how it should end up. 

Since I've pitched this a few years ago, there has been rumblings of this kind of format which would include an 8th division made up of those Group of 5 schools who would be part of a relegation format. So schools would have to step it up in order to stick in that division. That would give us eight champions and eight wildcards for a playoff.

The divisions would also consider traditional conferences to a point ... but it is obvious leagues who have to split up. Though this new entity would be separate from the current conference format, I still would like to keep those conference names in some fashion. They all hold brand value and would be a nice way to make the identity of this divisions more familiar. Or we could scrap that and just rename them into typical geographic divisions. 

So the name I want is placed for each division with the geographic name in parenthesis if we move away from tradition.  

Divisions

BIG EAST (EASTERN): Boston College, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, South Carolina, Syracuse, UCF, West Virginia 

Kind of a mix of northeastern and mid-Atlantic schools left over from the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. Obviously the controversial placement is Notre Dame. In doing this, Notre Dame will have to make some tough decisions and will have had to forsake their independence to join this association. Putting them here makes sense when you see the rest of the divisions and the Irish already has relationships with some of the schools in this division -- mainly Boston College. This still allows the Irish to play USC in a non-league rivalry and, if the FBS allows for games against FBS opponents, Navy. 

Geographically, this looks ... okay. It leans more northeastern with Notre Dame a bit west and a jump to South Carolina and UCF, but it works. Cohesion comes with BC, Syracuse and Pitt all former Big East (and current ACC) rivals; Maryland, Rutgers and Penn State as Big Ten rivals; and a strong core of Penn State, Pitt, Maryland, Rutgers and West Virginia in the mid-atlantic. Football wise, Notre Dame and Penn State bring the names, but there are some nice historical programs here.   

ATLANTIC COAST (ATLANTIC): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Basically the ACC but with the northern and western schools out. It is strong with Clemson, Florida State and Miami there with plenty of space for others to make their mark. See it as the ACC pre-2000s expansion but adding Miami (who they really wanted) and Virginia Tech and losing Maryland. So this sticks as far as rivalries go and a nice, tight geographic center. 

SOUTHEASTERN (SOUTHEAST): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Like the ACC, this is the same SEC before they expanded back in 1992. Sure, this is a tough schedule and a tough league, but with an expanded playoff format they should find plenty of teams in the postseason. That means South Carolina and Arkansas (who came in 1992), Missouri and Texas A&M, and Texas and Oklahoma go back to their old identities. Obviously this is a great football conference.

BIG TEN (MIDWEST): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

The theme continues as these are the ten schools that made up the conference named Big Ten. Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland stay east and Nebraska gets left out. The four Pac-12 schools never came. 

SOUTHWEST (SOUTHWEST): Arkansas, Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M

Now we're back to starting to create new groups, though this one already has history. The seven Texas schools and Arkansas were in the old SWC for decades. Of the old SWC, only Rice doesn't make it back with this new format. When the SWC disbanded in the mid-90s, the Texas schools were in the Big 12 with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. This holds up nicely. It is a very tight geographic footprint who all have history with each other. This works.

Football wise this should be fun. There's always the Texas-Oklahoma feud, with both their other rivals back together. Bedlam never dies. Arkansas may be able to spread its wings a bit outside of the current SEC West. TCU has had success. This is a really solid conference.

BIG 12 (CENTRAL): BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Missouri, Nebraska, Utah

Similar to the Eastern Division, this is a mixed bag of sorts. Missouri is homeless as we cut it from the SEC, Louisville is left from the ACC, Nebraska from the Big Ten, and Utah from the Big 12. They fit here because the other six schools were set to be Big 12 members together anyway and those other four schools fit the geographic footprint. After all, of the ten schools listed here, only Louisville, Missouri and Nebraska aren't currently in the Big 12 ... though Nebraska and Missouri once were. Louisville is rather homeless at this time and fits better here than trying to shoehorn them in the Eastern Division. This is a nice, if not perfect, collection. You have BYU and Utah together (as they were set to be in the Big 12) with Colorado to form that western front, plus that plains set with the Kansas schools, Iowa State, Missouri and Nebraska. Louisville and Cincinnati link up nicely together. While BYU to Cincinnati is a wide area, they were set to do this in the Big 12 anyway. 

That's geography, but what does it look like on the field? Eh. This may be the worst of the seven divisions because there really is no current power. Nebraska has the history, but haven't been that elite of a program in quite some time. Louisville has had some solid moments lately ... which could be said about pretty much everyone else in this league. Utah looks to be the top dog, but this may have a very fluid look to it. 

PACIFIC 10 (PACIFIC): Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

And this division looks like the Pac-12 when it was the Pac-10. Remember those times? 

So what does this accomplish? Well, we have a College Football Playoff Subdivision of Division I football. The schools comprising the Group of Five would stay as the Football Bowl Subdivision. That would be the AAC, MAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West and Conference USA. Of course, would a bowl system even be needed at that point ... especially for these schools.

RELEGATION: Appalachian State, Boise State, Fresno State, Liberty, Memphis, Miami-OH, Toledo, Troy, Tulane, Western Kentucky

I'm adding App State and Troy from the Sun Belt, Memphis and Tulane from the AAC, Miami-OH and Toledo from the MAC, Liberty and Western Kentucky from Conference USA, and Boise State and Fresno State from the Mountain West. I don't have a great idea on how we relegate these teams, but this is my placeholder of two teams for each Group of 5 conferences. 

Sportz' NCAA Tournament Recap - Elite 8

Just a quick recap of what I saw in my Sportz Room -- filled with TVs that I can watch all games going on at the same time.

GAME OF THE DAY: Purdue vs Tennessee. This was a good game, but it was really about the battle between the two best players in college basketball this season. Purdue's Zach Edey scored 40 points while Tennessee's Dalton Knecht dropped 37. In a tournament where we've seen some really bad games from stars that ended their teams' seasons, it was awesome to see two superstars are going blow for blow.

UPSET OF THE DAY: NC State vs Duke.  The only seed upset of the weekend, NC State just keeps rolling. The 11-seed that only made the tournament because they won the ACC tournament beat Duke for the second time in three weeks (and one time in each tournament). Duke felt like they had control of the game despite their iffy first half, but NC State went on a big run in the middle of the second half and weren't threatened the rest of the game. 

CONFERENCE OF THE DAY: Big Ten. I'm going with the Big Ten of this one. The Big Ten, along with the ACC, SEC and Big East, all got one team into the Final Four, but the Big Ten really needs this right now. The league has underperformed in the NCAA tournament in general and especially on the biggest stages. Purdue has been one of the better programs in college basketball the last decade or so but just kept tripping up in the tournament. They've finally broke through to a Final Four and have the look of a team who could finally end the league's championship drought. Michigan State in 2000 is the last Big Ten team to win a national title.

CONFERENCE WITH A BAD DAY: Big 12. The Big 12 has championed itself as the top college hoops conference in the nation, but it will be watching the Final Four as each of the other four power leagues (sorry Pac-12) will send a team to Phoenix. In fact, the Big 12 didn't even get a team to the Elite 8. What hurts the most is ... well ... hurting. Kansas, the preseason No. 1 team, lost their best player before the tournament started. Then Houston, the best team in the conference, lost their best player halfway through the first half of their Sweet 16 game. The Big 12 has been a great league, but this was a bad tournament for them.  

DUD OF THE DAY: UConn vs Illinois. It looked like this could be an elite game. UConn looks unbeatable, but Illinois has been playing at a level where they could knock off anyone. For about 18 minutes of this game, it looked like that could be the case. Then that run happened.

DOMINANT PERFORMANCE OF THE DAY: UConn vs Illinois. After Illinois tied the game 23-23 just before halftime, UConn went on a ridiculous 30-0 run.  Yes. 30-0. That seems like something UConn women's team did to teams in their heyday. Just when you thought UConn was vulnerable and could be taken down, they go on a historic run and turn the game into yet another blowout. 

UNDERLYING STORYLINE OF THE DAY: What makes the tournament so great ... and why it hurts so much. What makes this tournament so great is the fact that anything can happen. It is a six round single-elimination tournament. Obviously anything can happen in a win-or-go-home format, but in this tournament you've got to survive six of those games ... and win 18 to 24 year olds playing. So no matter how good you've played, one bad game can end a season and leave a horrible taste in your mouth ... forever. Caleb Love's 0-9 shooting night from three ended Arizona's season. A few hours later, RJ Davis' 0-9 three point shooting ended North Carolina's. Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr had been one of the best players of the tournament, until his 2 of 12 showing vs UConn gave the Illini no chance. The entire tournament was filled with tough nights like this, which happen, but it doesn't make it any harder for anyone. 

Elite 8 Standings

 

Sportz' NCAA Tournament Recap - Sweet 16, Day 2

Just a quick recap of what I saw in my Sportz Room -- filled with TVs that I can watch all games going on at the same time.

GAME OF THE DAY: Duke vs Houston. It is a shame that Jamal Shead severely turned his ankle and missed most of this game. It really showed at certain points that they needed him to calm the team down and make the right plays. Having said that, this was a very physical, hard fought game with both teams bringing energy defensively. Both teams shot 20-of-49 from the field and both teams had 26 points in the paint. The difference was Duke's ability to hit threes (Houston attempted just eight) and Houston's inability to drain free throws.

UPSET OF THE DAY: NC State vs Marquette.  The only double-digit seed remaining just axed the second best team in the Big East. NC State is keeping their miracle run going in March. State jumped on the Eagles early and kept that comfortable lead the rest of the night. 

CONFERENCE OF THE DAY: ACC. The ACC went 2-0 on the day and guaranteed themselves a spot in the Final Four. Both Duke and NC State won in the South Region and the two teams will face off for a fourth time this season. Duke won the two regular season games while State won their meeting in the ACC tournament. The ACC is 11-2 in this tournament with a shot at have two teams in the Final Four.

CONFERENCE WITH A BAD DAY: Big East. Creighton and Marquette bowed out of the tournament tonight. Marquette was stunned by the Cinderella NC State Wolfpack while Creighton was smacked with a Tennessee 18-0 run that they couldn't fully recover from. The Big East still claims the biggest fish in the tournament, but Friday was a rough night.  

DUD OF THE DAY: Purdue vs Gonzaga. There were no duds, but Purdue's win going away over Gonzaga is the likely pick. This was not a typically great Gonzaga squad, so getting to this point was a success. But Purdue jumped on the Zags early in the second half and didn't look back.

DOMINANT PERFORMANCE OF THE DAY: NC State vs Marquette. The Wolfpack opened a 20-10 lead and never looked back. What NC State has done over the last three weeks is nothing short of remarkable, especially considering they needed a buzzer beating banked three in the ACC tournament semifinals just to stay alive. Now the Wolfpack are a win away from their first Final Four since 1983. 

UNDERLYING STORYLINE OF THE DAY: New blood in the Elite 8. Sure, the defending champion UConn Huskies are alive. So is Duke, who is tied with UConn with five national championships. But we also could be having some new blood in the Final Four. For instance, Clemson and Alabama will face off for either school's first Final Four berth. Tennessee will face Purdue for their first trip to a Final Four ... while Purdue hasn't been since 1980. As we mentioned, NC State hasn't been there since 1983. Illinois hasn't been since 2005.