Bruce Pearl Wasn't Totally Wrong About Miami-OH

There has been a lot of debate this week about Bruce Pearl's take about Miami-OH's basketball team. Here is what he said on air for TNT: 

“Miami (Ohio), here’s the deal. Are we selecting the 68 most deserving teams? Or are we going to select the 68 best teams? If we’re selecting the 68 best teams, then Miami (Ohio) is going to have to win their tournament to qualify as a champion. Because as an at-large, they are not one of the best teams in the country. And that’s going to be a difficult choice for the committee to make.”

Let me lay a couple of quick context keys for a moment. First, this was when Miami-OH was 29-0. They are now 30-0 with one game left in their regular season and will be heading to the MAC tournament. Two, Pearl's son is the head coach at Auburn -- his former job and a team who is sitting squarely on the bubble. Three, I'm not a big Bruce Pearl guy, but I am defending his stance on this point.

I will also say that Pearl's comment was structured poorly. His point that Miami-OH being one of the 68 teams in order to get in is incorrect, and people need to get over that part of his comment. He knows the NCAA tournament does not invite the best 68 teams and he wasn't stomping for that. He pretty much says as much as his take goes on.

What he is saying is that Miami-OH needs to win the MAC tournament to ensure their spot in the NCAA tournament. If they lose in the MAC tournament, they may not get in as an at-large team. 

I don't think that's a wrong take.

Having said that, I don't think there is any way the NCAA tournament selection committee will keep a 1-loss Miami-OH team out of the dance. It just would look bad, even if they have the metrics to back up not including them. It would set off a firestorm that the narrative that middle of the pack power conference teams get to muck up the tournament at the expense of mid-majors is true. Putting a 16-14 Auburn team with a losing SEC record (or any 10th or 11th place power conference team) in ahead of a 31-1 MAC team would look really bad. I would rather see Miami-OH get in ahead of some middle of the road power league team. I really do.

Still, what Pearl said isn't off-based, and it certainly doesn't get the blowback that it has been getting.

Understand that if Miami-OH fails to win the MAC, they will need to receive an at-large bid to get into the dance. There are 31 automatic qualifiers (AQs) that come from conference tournament champions. That leaves 37 at-large bids. Miami-OH would have to be seen as one of the best 37 teams who didn't win their conference tournament. That isn't the slam dunk you think it is.

Let's look at what Miami-OH is right now:

-They are currently 53rd in NET rating. That is a big data point used by the committee. That ranking is  between Seton Hall and Belmont. Seton Hall is barely in the bubble conversation while Belmont won't get in unless they win the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. Auburn, by the way, is 39th in NET. 

-The only way they won't win a MAC championship is if they ... tah-dah ... lose in the MAC tournament. A loss would mean they lost, and that would knock them down in the NET rating. 

-Again, the NET isn't everything as there are teams on the bubble with a worse rating than the Redhawks. 

-Miami-OH is 0-0 in Quad 1 games. They are 1-0 in Quad 2 games. 

-Miami-OH is 89th in the KenPom rankings. Their strength of schedule is 284th. 

-The MAC hasn't had multiple bids in the NCAA tournament since 1999. Miami-OH was one of those teams. 

-Miami-OH could lose to Ohio on Friday and lose in the MAC tournament, giving them two losses. 

Look, I'm on the side of the little guy having their SOS dragged down because of the league they are in ... but their non-conference schedule was bad, too. You can say that no one will schedule them, but you couldn't find any power conference schools at all? And you had to settle for Milligan, Trinity (IL), Mercyhurst and IU East? 

That's what Miami-OH brings to the table -- a flawless record built off a statistically bad schedule. And that is their resume when deciding who the best ... and the key word in Pearl's comments was "best" ... 37 teams among the non-AQs. 

So let's do an exercise of what Miami-OH would be going up against. 

*Let's knock out all of the AQs right now. There are 31 of them, including 26 mid-major champions. Let's establish that Duke wins the ACC, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Arizona wins the Big 12, Florida wins the SEC and UConn wins the Big East. Also, Miami-OH does not win the MAC ... or else this practice is moot.

*Let's go ahead and assume these schools get at-large bids with basically zero debate: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, St. John's and Villanova. That means 21 schools are locked in. We will also put both Gonzaga and Saint Mary's in ... with one winning the WCC and the other as the at-large. That's 22 at-larges taken. 

*Here are a few that aren't locks, but close to it: NC State, Missouri, Clemson, Miami- FL, Iowa and UCF. That means 28 at-large spots are taken. 

*That puts 9 spots for everyone else. That's where Miami-OH lives. They live with Ohio State, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, SMU, New Mexico, Santa Clara, Indiana, TCU, Auburn, San Diego State, Virginia Tech, VCU, Cincinnati, USC and California. It is conceivable that Miami-OH may not be one of the 9 "best" teams in this mix. That 9 could get smaller if we see some bid stealers in one of the power conferences, the WCC or the Mountain West. 

Again, I think Miami-OH gets in ... but what Pearl is saying isn't wrong. Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology has Miami-OH as an 11-seed right now ... and that's assuming them winning the MAC title. That puts them in a very vulnerable position if they don't win their conference tournament. Which is what Pearl is saying. By the way, Lunardi also has Ohio State, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, and SMU as better seeds right now.