Thursday, January 30, 2025
Adam Silver Apparently Will Do Anything To The NBA, But What We Actually Want
I love the NBA. I should say that I really loved the NBA. Right now I really like the NBA. I'm grew up in the 1980s where Magic's Lakers, Larry's Celtics and the Bad Boy Pistons reigned supreme. The 1990s is known as the Michael Jordan Bulls decade, but is also seen as the era where scoring dipped way down and every game had the look of a physical fight. Rules changed and the 2000s was a bit of a hybrid from both eras.
The NBA's product right now is under attack. While I am not the old guy yelling at the clouds that this version of basketball is unwatchable, I do understand why people feel this way. The long time fans in my age group are turned off and the casual fans aren't turned on enough to pay attention. While it's easy to point to the style of play as the reason (and I will do some pointing that way), it is actually several reasons that are converging.
So when NBA Commissioner Adam Silver goes on the Dan Patrick Show and says that one of the things he's in favor of is having less basketball, it sticks a dagger in my heart. Not just because I don't like the idea, but that the commissioner of the sport won't address the problem that seems to be on everyone's mind.
Let me start with what Mr. Silver said: he lobbed the idea of making quarters 10 minutes instead of the current ... and always ... 12 minutes. He said that all other levels of basketball are 10 minute quarters: FIBA, WNBA, women's college and the men's is a 40 minute game. He also said that it would allow NBA games ... as he described as a "TV show" ... to be in a neat two hour window for his broadcast partners.
Sorry, but that's as tone deaf as I've ever heard from him. No fan is complaining that 48 minutes is too long for an NBA game. In fact, games are about 2:15 on average, so shaving 15 minutes of TV time doesn't seem to be a nice payoff for such a drastic change that would skew historical records. That 2:15 game length has been pretty consistent for decades, so we aren't dealing with the issues that Major League Baseball or college football has had recently. It also is telling that your product has become so bad that giving your fans less of it seems to be on the table.
Fans are whining because:
-Load management is an insult to fans. Fans who have to show up to their jobs every day to afford expensive tickets to an NBA game only to see their favorite players take a vacation day.
-The new CBA crushes player movement, which the league has actually enjoyed promoting. It's done itself a disservice. The NBA trade deadline and free agency period were so much fun because player movement really is a game changer in this league and the NBA actually loved having that keep them in the sports chatter. But the CBA punishes teams who try to build great rosters and we instead see less excitement.
-Stars are unknowns. There are two reasons for this: the NBA Draft has turned into a bunch of no-names being thrust into a league they aren't ready for. In the 1980s or 1990s, the college players being drafted were certified stars before putting on an NBA jersey. Sure, we do get a Zion Williamson or Victor Wembenyama come into the league, but these guys are relatively unknows to the casual fan. On one hand, that speaks to the success of basketball's development internationally, but it's bad for business. The second reason is the best player on the planet, Nikola Jokic, doesn't want to be a star. He isn't Jordan or Kobe or LeBron.
-Flopping. Jalen Brunson is so talented, but it pains me to watch him play. All the head snapping, shoving and tripping, frankly, pisses me off. Instead of just playing the game, he plays to the refs.
-All these extended reviews for out of bounds plays, timing issues, and flagrant fouls.
-And the big one: fans aren't big on teams chucking up 50 threes a game.
I used to think of myself as someone who didn't mind the game changing because that's just what happens. Players are bigger, faster, stronger and more skilled then ever. But the players are a bit lazier as well. My son plays in a U13 league and my daughter is on the dance team for her high school so I get to watch a lot of prep hoops right now. And there is a lot of really bad basketball being played out there. The high school games I watch, no one seems to know how to make an entry pass into the post, no one seems to understand that you are allowed to shoot midrange shots, and players seem to rather shoot fade away step backs than attack the paint. I couldn't count how many times I've watched five guys dribble and pass the ball around the three point line while no one bothers to get inside the paint.
The sad thing is that we've all just accepted it. Now we the fans, but we the basketball community. My son's U13 league all plays like that, the high school teams play like that, college basketball plays like that, and the NBA plays like that. Every single player in the NBA has a green light to launch a three ... so every player does. Even if they aren't good at it.
You may look at me and say stop yelling at the clouds, but here is where the problem gets us: every team plays the exact same way and there is no difference watching any game in the league anymore.
Magic's Lakers were known for their Showtime antics. Fast breaks and slick passing. Larry's Celtics were the fundamental team who set screens, split double teams in the post and made the right play. The Bad Boy Pistons were known for their tough, physical defense. At the same time, you had the run-and-gun Nuggets, the Run TMC Warriors, the dunk-tastic Sixers, and this rising force of Michael Jordan on the Bulls.
That's all gone now. Every game looks exactly the same. The league has become saturated and stale. Sure, teams have different stars that do different things but you're pretty much just watching the same thing. The champion Celtics and the basement dwelling Wizards run pretty much the same game plan, it's just Boston has more talented players.
Shaving eight minutes off the game doesn't make our problem with the NBA go away. The game will still look the same, just less of it. Players will still load manage, there will be 48 threes jacked up instead of 50, floppers will still flop, and we will still see players twirl their fingers in the air whenever they think there is a call that didn't go their way.
Silver's previous ideas have been meh to me. I really don't care about these In-Season Tournament games. Just because I turn the game on and see that bright colorful floor doesn't mean I think to myself "wow, I better watch this game because it's so important". He tried to lay down the law by creating a minimum games played rule to be eligible for post season awards. None of the players seem to care one bit about that. His attempt to fix the broken All-Star weekend doesn't motivate me at all.
Baseball has famously made drastic changes to fix their on-field problems. Games were going on way too long and there was so much dead time that they were losing casual fans. The pitch clock has cut down all that waste of stepping out of the batter's box and fixing all your gear between pitches, plus the bigger bases has helped bring base stealing back in vogue. Now teams are manufacturing runs like they did 30 years ago instead of just waiting for someone to hit a home run. Putting the DH in the National League has slowed down pitching changes and allows for a better offensive player to be up instead of an awkward pitcher. Even the highly controversial "ghost runner" in extra innings is designed to keep games moving along.
The NBA is doing none of that. Their ideas are colorful courts, insignificant trophies, asking "pretty please" for the stars to play more, and taxing organizations for trying to build star loaded teams. Now it is to dumb down the biggest and greatest league in basketball to conform to what other leagues are doing.
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
Bills, Ravens, Bengals Fans May Not See Their Teams Reach Their Potential
Championships matter, especially when it comes to the legacies of athletes. Dan Marino is looked at a certain way because he never won a Super Bowl. Shaquille O'Neal constantly chides Charles Barkley -- in fact, it is his go-to move when they get in an argument -- that Sir Charles doesn't own a ring. Eli Manning is likely getting into the Hall of Fame because he has two Super Bowl titles. It is the ultimate trump card for discussing sports history.
Which could be a problem for NFL fans in Buffalo, Baltimore, Cincinnati and 12 other AFC cities. There is a good chance their first ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks will end their career with zero Super Bowl titles.
Right now, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are hogging up all the hardware. In less than two week, the Chiefs will play the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX -- their fifth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons. No franchise has come close to that kind of dominance in such a period of time. The Patriots from 2014 to 2018 went four times in five years. The 1990-1993 Buffalo Bills went four times in a row (still a record) but won none of those Super Bowls and hadn't been there before or since. These Chiefs are doing this while going through several versions of itself, with the main constants being Mahomes, Andy Reid and Travis Kelce.
As long as Mahomes is playing, it seems that the Chiefs will always be in the conversation. Andy Reid is 66, so there's no telling how long he intends to coach. He doesn't look like someone on the cusp of retiring, but you never know. Kelce will turn 36 during next season, so he's clearly in his last few years of football. But Mahomes holds the key.
And therein lies the problem for everyone else in the AFC: When will we get a turn?
This could be the golden age of quarterbacks in the AFC. At this moment, you have Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in that conference -- four insanely great QBs. There's also CJ Stroud, Justin Herbert and upstarts Bo Nix and Drake Maye. You'd think that Allen, Lamar and Burrow will eventually get their chance at pulling down a ring, but that's not necessarily true. In fact, it is unlikely.
For one, the Chiefs will have to tail off. If we're being honest, these last two seasons have been the time to catch Kansas City napping. I mean, last year's receiving corps was a season long joke and they still won the Super Bowl. This season watched KC snatch several wins in the final moments of games, and they kept winning them. If the Chiefs do slip up one of these years, it opens the door for the other great quarterbacks to go get their ring.
But that door opened by the Chiefs losing doesn't mean everyone else gets to eat. Each season only gets one Super Bowl champion. If the Chiefs aren't there, only Lamar, Allen or Burrow could get there. Just like in 2021 when the Bengals finally broke through by beating the Chiefs in the AFC title game, it was just Cincinnati. Allen and Jackson were stuffed. If Allen makes it, Burrow and Lamar Jackson didn't.
That's the reality of the AFC right now. Someone will not win their franchise a Super Bowl. Someone will be their generation's Dan Marino.
Marino spent the 1980s and 1990s in an AFC with John Elway and Jim Kelly. From 1986 to 1993, Elway or Kelly went to 7 of 8 Super Bowls (Boomer Esiason's Bengals went in 1988). Ironically, they didn't win any of those seven Super Bowls ... but NFC quarterbacks named Phil Simms, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Joe Montana (twice) and Troy Aikman (twice) did. Marino did get there in 1984 but never got back. Warren Moon never got there. Neither did Bernie Kosar.
Joe Burrow is sort of Marino already. Burrow, like Marino, reached the Super Bowl in his second season in the NFL. He hasn't been back, and with Mahomes seemingly stacking Super Bowl apperances while Lamar Jackson is stacking MVPs and Josh Allen is left watching his seasons end a bit too early, there's no guarantee that Burrow will get back. That's still better than either Jackson or Allen, who just want a taste.
In the NBA, one of the legendary things about Michael Jordan's career is that he kept guys like Karl Malone, Patrick Ewing, Charles Barkley and others from winning their championships. In the 1990s, he stunted the entire Eastern Conference from getting to a Finals. That's what Mahomes is doing right now in the AFC. The Chiefs won't get to every Super Bowl during Mahomes time there, but the few times he slips up will be a massive opportunity that only one of those Hall of Fame quarterbacks will be able to maximize. That was Burrow in 2021. Who will it be if and when it happens again?
Maybe one of these guys end up in the NFC at some point. If Burrow, Jackson or Allen went to the NFC they would immediately be the best quarterback in that conference. I mean, who is it now? Jalen Hurts? Jared Goff? Jayden Daniels? Dak Prescott? Brock Purdy? In the Mahomes era, the NFC has sent to the Super Bowl: Hurts twice, Purdy, Matthew Stafford (who should be retiring in the near future), Tom Brady (who has retired) and Jimmy Garoppolo. Sam Darnold reached the Pro Bowl in the NFC but Mahomes didn't make it in the AFC. That's how tough the competition is over there.
That's how tough it is to reach you ultimate goals.
Monday, January 27, 2025
Looking Back At My NFL Predictions
Well, one of my preseason picks to reach the Super Bowl actually did. The Philadelphia Eagles will be in New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX, but it won't be the Baltimore Ravens they'll be playing. They'll see the Kansas City Chiefs, who will be in their fifth Super Bowl in six years.
But how well did I do with my other picks? Let's see.
AFC DIVISION WINNERS
I got three of the four winners correctly, but I whiffed on picking the Bengals to win the North. I figured Cincinnati would be the most stable team in that divisions, as the Steelers got a new quarterback(s) and the Ravens lost a lot on defense. I figured the Ravens would take a step back from winning the division, but could make a postseason run.
I also missed on my wildcard teams. I had the Ravens in, but missed on the Dolphins and Browns. BOY did I miss on those two. For the most part, outside of the North I did pretty well in terms of division standings -- nailing the East and West.
NFC DIVISION WINNERS
The West was my horror show in the NFC. I had the Eagles and Lions right but missed on the Falcons in the South. The West was awful. I had the 49ers repeating as division champs but injuries derailed their entire season. Seattle did better than I thought they would. I also picked the Vikings last in the North and the Cowboys getting a wildcard berth. Ugh.
I only got four of the seven playoff teams, with me missing out on the Buccaneers, Commanders and Vikings. (I had the Cowboys, Falcons and 49ers).
Saturday, January 25, 2025
Championship Game Predictions
There are just four teams remaining. Two of them I picked against last week. The Eagles will host the surprising Commanders while the Bills travel to Kansas City to try to knock off the Chiefs.
COMMANDERS AT EAGLES: The two division rivals split their first two meeting, with each home team victorious. The first game was a rather low scoring contest that saw the Eagles take the lead in the second half and surge to a win. The second game saw Jalen Hurts knocked out of the game with a concussion and Jayden Daniels orchestrating a great comeback to win arguably their biggest regular season game of the year. So what does that mean for the third matchup? I think Philadelphia will learn from their mistakes of the second game. I don't see them blitzing Daniels much and trying to make him beat their coverage. I said during their regular season meetings that Saquon Barkley has always gone off against the Commanders ... and he did so in each game. I expect the same here. Barkley goes off and Hurts does just enough to give the Eagles a double-digit win. Philly.
BILLS AT CHIEFS: This Chiefs team isn't as dominant as their 15-2 record indicates. They just find ways to win games. This is Josh Allen at his greatest and if there was a good time to knock off the Chiefs, it seems to be now. Buffalo won their regular season matchup ... but that isn't news. Buffalo has actually dominated the Chiefs during the regular season over the last few years, but can't get over the hump in the playoffs. I think that stands here. I do think the Bills could win this game, but Kansas City simply doesn't lose in the postseasons. Their three playoff losses in the Mahomes era were to Tom Brady in the AFC title game (they were an offsides away from winning that), Tom Brady in the Super Bowl (Chiefs offensive line was decimated) and the Joe Burrow-led Bengals in the 2021 AFC Championship game on a last second field goal. They make enough plays to win these games. I have zero good reasons they win other than that. They just win.
Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl for the second time in three years.
Commanders Have Me Feeling Like I'm 16 Again
This year, 2025, is a big year for me. In July I will turn 50 years old. Ugh. But right now, I'm feeling like I'm 16 again.
The Washington Commanders will be playing in the NFC Championship against the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday. This is the first time the Washington franchise has played in this game since January 1992, when the then-Redskins beat the Detroit Lions to reach Super Bowl XXVI. I was 16 years old on that day and that NFC Championship didn't feel like the surprise event that the one in 2025 does.
The 1991 Redskins went 14-2 and had a lethal offense and a physical defense that dominated that season. After blowing out the Falcons and Lions, the Redskins pounded the Bills to win their third Super Bowl in 10 years. That franchise was elite then. Joe Gibbs was a Hall of Fame coach and Jack Kent Cooke was a solid owner. The 1980s was filled with great football -- the dynasty San Francisco 49ers, those '85 Bears, the Bill Parcells/Bill Belichick Giants and the team from the nation's capital.
That's how it was being a Redskins fan back then. Great teams in a great stadium.
I had no idea it would all go away so quickly and for so long. A little over a year after that Super Bowl title, Gibbs retired after a 9-7 season in 1992. Jack Kent Cooke would build a new stadium in nearby Landover, Maryland but died in 1997 before it opened. His will had instructions for the team to be sold, which businessman Daniel Snyder did in 1999. I don't have to remind you how bad Snyder's tenure was -- but I will. Just six winning seasons, six playoff appearances and two playoff wins in his 24 years at the helm. His last playoff win came in January 2006. That doesn't even touch on the dysfunction he cultivated in the organization.
That all ended in 2023 when a group lead by Josh Harris bought the now-Commanders from Snyder (who was essentially forced out). Harris spent the 2023 season assessing the franchise before making big moves last offseason. His main move was bringing in Adam Peters as the general manager of the team and ... get this ... let Peters do his job. Snyder meddled with his football people, but Harris enables his people to do the job as they seem fit. That led to Dan Quinn being hired as the new head coach and a near total overhaul of the roster. Of course, the most notable move was drafting LSU's Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick.
I won't go into what all happened this season, but where we are at now. The Commanders have won two road playoff games this season -- which matches the postseason wins during the Snyder era. The Commanders went 12-5 during the regular season, which is the franchise's most wins since that 1991 Super Bowl championship team. For Redskins/Commanders fans that have suffered for over 30 years waiting for this team to get back to mattering ... this season has been such a joy.
January 1992.
I was a high school junior. George H.W. Bush was the president. Michael Jackson's "Black or White" was the No. 1 song.
In sports, the Minnesota Twins were the World Series champions. Michael Jordan was trying to win his second NBA title. Magic Johnson ... who is now a minority owner of the Commanders ... had just retired from the NBA after contracting HIV. The Dream Team hadn't played a game yet. Duke's Christian Laettner would hit the shot to beat Kentucky two months later.
Look at the NFL in January 1992. There were no Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens or Houston Texans. There also weren't any Tennessee Titans -- as they were the Houston Oilers. The Phoenix Cardinals were in the NFC East. The Seattle Seahawks were in the AFC. The Raiders were in Los Angeles and the Chargers were in San Diego. Of the 27 stadiums of that year, only six are being used today.
Dan Quinn was a lineman at Salisbury University.
It's been a long time and after suffering through the Daniel Snyder era or dysfunction and promises squashed, it now feels like Washington is on a path that won't be screwed up by incompetence.
I don't think we will beat the Eagles on Sunday. That doesn't mean I don't think we can. Still, it doesn't feel like this is a aberration that will end when I wake up.
Raise hail!
Wednesday, January 22, 2025
What Happened To Previous Super Bowl Three-Peat Attempts?
So how close have the other teams come to making a three-peat?
1968 GREEN BAY PACKERS
Vince Lombardi retired as the Packers head coach a few weeks after winning Super Bowl II to become the team's general manager. Phil Bengston took over an aging Green Bay team and his style was in stark contrast to Lombardi's. Despite having four of their first five games at Lambeau Field, the Packers got off to a 2-3 start and hovered around the .500 mark before finishing 6-7-1. They missed the playoffs for the first time in nine years. Lombardi would leave for the Washington Redskins following the season.
1974 MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Dolphins had a magical two year run where they'd go 32-2 and won consecutive Super Bowls. The Dolphins slipped a bit in 1974, going 11-3, but won the AFC East. Miami would have to play at the Oakland Raiders in the first round of the playoffs, and lost in the "Sea of Hands" game. Ken Stabler threw an 8-yard touchdown pass while falling down to Clarence Davis, who fought three Dolphins for the possession of the football. Miami would miss the playoffs the next two seasons and wouldn't get back to the Super Bowl until 1982.
1976 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
This is one of those times where the team was dominant enough to win it all, just came up short in the playoffs. The 1976 Steelers averaged under 10 points given up per game -- still a franchise record. They shut out five teams -- a Super Bowl era record -- including three straight games in the middle of the season. They forced 46 turnovers in a 14 game season. What did the Steelers in was their offense in the postseason. Both of their 1,000 yard running backs -- Rocky Bleier and Franco Harris -- got hurt in the Steelers' first round win over the Baltimore Colts. Both were out in the AFC Championship game against the rival Oakland Raiders, who took advantage by winning 24-7. Obviously this was a blip in the Steelers' dynasty. Because ...
1980 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
After not winning the Super Bowl in 1976 and 1977, the Steelers would win consecutive titles in 1978 and 1979. The 1980 version just got old, especially on defense. The vaunted Steel Curtain fell from the second best defense to 15th overall and the offense, while still good, was turnover prone. They lost three of their final five games of the season (including an ugly 6-0 loss to the Oilers in the Astrodome), knocking them out of the playoff hunt for the first time since 1971. This was the end of the 1970s Steelers dynasty.
1990 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
This is one of the more interesting misses at a three-peat. These Niners were a juggernaut, winning Super Bowls in 1981, 1984, 1988 and 1989. In 1990, they went 10-0 before losing to the Los Angeles Rams in the game prior to their showdown with the New York Giants. They won their hyped up Monday Night Football matchup with the Giants, but the two would meet again in the NFC Championship. In that game, Joe Montana was violently hit by Leonard Marshall and suffered broken ribs, a broken hand, and a bruised sternum. He'd miss the rest of the game and nearly the next two years. Steve Young came on and the Niners tried to run out the clock, but a fumble by Roger Craig was recovered by Lawrence Taylor, giving the Giants a chance. New York moved down the field and kicked a field goal as time expired to win the game, 15-13. The three-peat was denied and while the 49ers would win a Super Bowl again in 1994, the dynasty pivoted. Had San Francisco won this game, Montana likely wouldn't have been able to start in the Super Bowl.
1994 DALLAS COWBOYS
With the Niners dynasty (kind of) over, the Dallas Cowboys emerged as the next power in the NFL. Owner Jerry Jones and head coach Jimmy Johnson used deft trades and draft picks to build an absolute power house that blew through Super Bowl XXVII and XXVIII (both over the Buffalo Bills). However, an offseason argument broke up the Jones-Johnson partnership and the hiring of Oklahoma Sooners legend Barry Switzer to take over. On the surface, the Cowboys didn't miss a beat. They went 12-4 and won the NFC East yet again, but injuries bothered Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and others. They went into San Francisco for the NFC Championship and fell behind early, only the scratch back and lose, 38-28. Dallas would sign cornerback Deion Sanders away from San Francisco and win the next year's Super Bowl, winning three titles in four years.
1999 DENVER BRONCOS
This one is fairly easy: John Elway retired. After winning consecutive Super Bowls over the Packers and Falcons, Elway called it quits after a brilliant 16-year career. Mike Shanahan and the Broncos looked to Brian Griese as their new quarterback as they would lean on running back Terrell Davis, however an 0-4 start to the season (which Davis suffered a season-ending injury) cratered any hopes at a three-peat. Denver went 6-10 on the season and missed the playoffs.
2005 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Like the earlier Cowboys, these era of the Patriots win three Super Bowls in a four year period. The difference is that the Patriots won their last two consecutively. As the theme of this piece goes, injuries played a key role in stopping a three-peat. Tedy Bruschi suffered a stroke in the offseason and Rodney Harrison (who suffered a season ending injury in Week 3) was one of several defensive players who missed time that season. The Patriots also lost coordinators Charlie Weis (Notre Dame) and Romeo Crennel (Browns) to head coaching jobs elsewhere. New England got off to a 4-4 start before winning six of their next seven and starting to look like a contender again. But five turnovers in an ugly loss to the Broncos in Denver ended their playoff run. It was the first playoff loss in the Brady/Belichick era, and the Patriots wouldn't win a Super Bowl again for ten years.
Saturday, January 18, 2025
Division Round Predictions
In the Wildcard Round, I went 4-2 ... incorrectly picking the Chargers and Buccaneers to win. There's four more games this weekend and a chance for four more wins for me. So here's how I see it:
TEXANS AT CHIEFS: I'm not the "you can't pick against Patrick Mahomes" guy because not every GOAT wins every game. Still, with the offensive injury issues that the Texans have right now -- mainly to Joe Mixon -- I just don't think Houston has enough. If they bring the defensive pressure they did against Justin Herbert then they have a chance to stay in the game. But no Mixon means it will be tough to keep the ball out of Mahomes hands. Give me the Chiefs.
COMMANDERS AT LIONS: Washington is several steps ahead of their plan, but their season ends here (full disclosure: I'm a Commanders fan and hope I am wrong). The Commanders have done well to mask their weakness this season on defense, but I don't think they can slow down this Lions team that has been stewing over their playoff loss to the 49ers in last year's NFC title game. Too much Detroit.
RAMS AT EAGLES: This is the trendy upset pick. I just think the Eagles defense can dent the Rams offensive attack and there's enough Saquon Barkley to keep LA at bay. Philly is a tough place to play and the Rams organization is going through a lot. Jalen Hurts makes just enough plays to set up the Lions-Eagles NFC championship game we've been waiting for.
RAVENS AT BILLS: There's a lot of hype about this game ... and maybe it's unwarranted. These two, plus the Chiefs, have been the class of the AFC this season and these two QBs have been the best players in the league. But it's going to come down to James Cook vs Derrick Henry. Cook has been fantastic over the last 15 months, but I think Henry came to Baltimore for this. Winning these kinds of games. This should be a fantastic game, but I have Baltimore winning.
Tuesday, January 7, 2025
Wildcard Round Predictions
Wildcard weekend is almost here!! So who do I have winning the six games we will feast on?
CHARGERS AT TEXANS: Texans have really slogged through the regular season, losing 5 of their last 9 games. Aside from an impressive win over the Bills in Week 4, they haven't beaten a playoff team this year. I really can't shake that 31-2 loss to the Ravens on Christmas. The Chargers have also only beaten one playoff team this season -- the Broncos twice. But this seems like the more consistent team in a better head space right now. I have the Chargers winning this one.
STEELERS AT RAVENS: Anyone who has paid attention to Pittsburgh has seen their offense at their worst, scoring just 57 points (14.3 ppg) in their four game losing streak. Three weeks ago the Ravens spanked the Steelers in Baltimore and I see this game going the same way. Ravens win.
BRONCOS AT BILLS: This has become the trendy upset pick and I can see why. Denver's defense is the perfect kind of defense to go up against this Josh Allen offense. They get to the quarterback and they have a shut down corner that forces the quarterback to work his other receivers. I get it. I still think Buffalo wins this game and sets up a showdown with the Ravens.
PACKERS AT EAGLES: A rematch from the Week 1 Brazil game that the Packers almost won. Love is banged up and I feel that Philly is the most complete team in the NFL. The Eagles make mistakes that could be their demise in these playoffs, but I feel they are destined to face the Lions in the NFC championship game. Eagles fly to a comfortable win.
COMMANDERS AT BUCCANEERS: Note that I am a Commanders fan, so it's hard for me to pick against Washington. But I will. This has been a fantastic season for the Commanders and the future is extremely bright. But Tampa is better right now. They can run the ball (Washington struggles at that) and I feel Mike Evans is going to have a major game. However, I'd love to see these two quarterbacks who have been so clutch all season long have chances to will their teams to win. I just think the Buccaneers eek this one out.
VIKINGS AT RAMS: This should be great. Two explosive offenses and two of the young great offensive minds at head coach. I'm so torn on this. I trust the Rams more ... especially now that they are healthy. But Minnesota has been so good this entire season. The key is if the Rams defense can force Sam Darnold to look chaotic like the Lions did last Sunday. Minnesota's defense is much better at home than on the road so I'm going with the Rams.
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
Sportz' 2025 Predictions
I know I won't be right on all of these, but I'll talk smack about the few I'm right about. Here we go:
*Celtics repeat. Unfortunately. I just think this roster is too good in comparison to the rest of the field that they will end up hanging their 19th banner. I really like to see them face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals, but I think Boston's experience in that moment pulls them through.
*Kansas City Chiefs won't three-peat. It hasn't been done in the Super Bowl era and hasn't been done since the Packers in the 1960s (the only other time it happened was the Packers from 1929 to 1931). As I write this, they are 15-1 but that doesn't mean much. In the Super Bowl era, teams that has won at least 15 regular season games have only won the Super Bowl twice in seven opportunities ... and that was the 1984 Niners and 1985 Bears. I just don't think this Chiefs team is as good as Patrick Mahomes' previous three title teams and I think the Bills and Ravens are more equipped to knock them off. Of course, I could very well be wrong.
*UConn won't repeat either. The other notable team looking for a threepeat are the UConn Huskies basketball team. They've been so dominant the last two NCAA tournaments but I don't think this year's team is as polished as the previous two. The NCAA tournament is just so random as it is that all it takes is an off night to get knocked off.
*An SEC team will win the NCAA tournament. Just a feeling, but I think one of the SEC teams wins their first tournament since Kentucky did in 2012. I can't tell which one it will be, but the Alabama-Auburn rivalry looks to be a nice start. Kentucky could do it. So could Tennessee. Maybe Florida.
*An SEC team will NOT win the College Football Playoff. This one I may not truly believe, but I'm going with it. The Big Ten has three legitimate contenders to the title and two of the Final Four could be from there. I feel the Oregon-Ohio State winner will end up winning the championship. I loved Georgia, but I'm very hesitant with Carson Beck out for the season.
*Warriors miss the playoffs again. They'll probably get into the play-in, but this isn't a playoff team. Right now they are 10th in the standings and the teams ahead of them (Wolves, Suns, Clippers) are more likely to get better than Golden State is. The Spurs are also right there behind them, and while I don't think much of San Antonio in the grand scheme of things, they could catch fire and sneak past the Warriors. If they make a big trade and land Jimmy Butler, well that could change things.
*Golden Knights win Stanley Cup. Just a feeling.
*Mets miss the playoffs. Just a feeling.
*Travis Hunter won't be the NFL's No. 1 overall pick, but should be. Everyone is desperate for their franchise quarterback that they'll reach for hope instead of drafting the best player available. The Giants would most likely draft a QB with the top pick. The Patriots won't, but could feasibly trade out of a top two spot to get more picks to fill out their roster. The Jaguars are the only other team likely picking at the top that wouldn't use that pick on a QB if either Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward were available. I'd tell all of them to draft Hunter and deal with finding a QB later. Hunter is both a culture changing person but an elite and special talent.
*Caitlyn Clark will get the Indiana Fever to the WNBA playoffs. Self explanatory.
*NBA announces they will be officially expanding. Signs point to Seattle and Las Vegas getting those teams. That announcement may not happen in 2025, but that's what I think eventually happens. The Minnesota Timberwolves will move to the Eastern Conference. If they keep the current six divisions, the Wolves join the Central Division, Seattle to the Pacific Division and Seattle to the Northwest Division.
*MLB gets closer to their expansion, but doesn't. MLB has some issues this coming season. Two of their franchises will be playing in minor league ballparks. The Tampa Bay Rays will be playing in Tampa's minor league park after hurricanes made Tropicana Field unplayable, while the Oakland Athletics will leave Oakland to play in a minor league park in Sacramento (their name will just be the Athletics this year) before moving to Las Vegas by the end of the decade. While this is a problem, the A's relocation drama ... ending? ... means that the league can look at adding two or four more franchises. Unlike the NBA, there is no shoo-in candidates since several are very attractive. Nashville, Montreal, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, Portland and others are on the list.
*Streaming becomes a more important part of sports broadcasting. While fans may complain about it, they are going to have to get used to it. The NFL has already done a lot with streaming with Amazon, Peacock, ESPN+ and Netflix while the NBA enters its new broadcast agreement next fall where streaming is a major partner. The fall of regional sports networks will make streaming options more attractive to leagues like the NBA, NHL and MLB. While people may not be used to it, they should enjoy these options. If you really think about it, we have more access to sports than we have ever had before and that's a good thing. If you refuse to pay for six or more streaming services to watch all the games, I get it. But you're still watching more games a week than you did 10 years ago and exponentially more than you did 20 or 30 years ago. Netflix's broadcast of the Paul-Tyson fight was ridiculed, but they did a much better job on their Christmas Day telecast. Netflix wants in on sports, so expect more and more games online.
*NFL will add an 18th game. Having said what I did about streaming, the next foray for the NFL is to reach more into streaming and more into international games. Those things will compel the NFL to try to work with the player's union to add that 18th game on the schedule. That WILL NOT happen for the 2025 season, but it will be worked on extensively this year. The NFL will want to sell an international package of games to one service -- which likely will be a streaming service. Think the Thursday Night schedule for Amazon, except it will be international games for, say, Netflix. That doesn't short the other broadcast partners and gives an influx of money to both the teams and the players. If the NFL can figure out how to throw in a second bye (it happened in the 1990s, but wasn't well received) then it gives the league even more weight on the sports schedule. The NFL now has no issue stepping on other sports' toes (right NBA on Christmas?) so the NFL could start the week before Labor Day (sorry, college football) and end the regular season the second week of January. That pushes the playoffs forward a week and puts the Super Bowl around President's Day weekend. Having that second bye means there is more opportunity to have international games since there is more built it rest weeks. We could see a situation where there is a new 9am Eastern Time window for an international game most weeks. With England and Germany already in the bag and Spain in the future, there is interest in hosting these games. Add in Brazil and back to Mexico City and there are plenty of places wanting to host NFL games. Have a 10 or 14 game package and sell that to Netflix? Look for that on the horizon.
*New ESPN streaming hub will change the game. One of the changes going on in the streaming world is how networks are streamlining their properties into their streaming service. In the non-sports world, you are seeing companies slash their networks and just integrate them into their streaming format. ESPN is essentially doing the same but creating their streaming service all encompassing. As you likely know, ESPN+ alone doesn't give you events on the linear ESPN networks -- you still must have a subscription through cable or satellite for ESPN. The new format will have all of ESPN's content on one place, which is attractive to people who just have cable for ESPN. That's a big hit for those cord companies, and could be the trend that goes into other networks. I mean, you are already seeing hubs on all these services already.
*NCAA tournament will expand to 76 teams. Again, that won't happen for the 2025 tournament, but it will be voted in this year. There is a want to expand the tournament some, but nothing to big. Adding eight teams means the First Four gets expanded out to eight games. Here's how it goes: There will be four games on Tuesday and four games on Wednesday. Four of those games will be two 16 seeds facing off where the winners will be the 16-seeds to face the No. 1 seeds in the "real" bracket. There is a bit of a trick to this since with the pods that we can't just split those games to two on each day. Then we have four games of 12-seeds (or 11-seeds, if that's how it lands) that are not automatic qualifiers. Have all of that in Dayton for both days -- a day session of two games and a night session of two games for each day. Or, if you want, add a second site that is kind of centrally located. Maybe Nashville? Kansas City? Or maybe another Dayton-type city like Greensboro, Birmingham, Tulsa or Arlington, Texas?
*NBA makes some rule change on three point shot. This may be less likely, but Adam Silver clearly has an issue with how his game is perceived. He wasn't too shy about his disdain for the way the All Star Game looks and is quickly looking for a fix. He started the NBA Cup to make the early part of the season (read: the schedule that coincides with the NFL) attractive to viewers. So with a lot of people turned off by the NBA's current style of gunning threes, look for Silver to at least float some ideas out there to make the game ... more attractive. The idea I like is ditching the corner three -- having the three point arc extend out to the free throw line extended. Who knows if Silver is willing to do something that drastic immediately, but that could be a discussion that gets tried out in the G-League for a few years before the NBA actually implements it. But expect those discussions to get serious.
*NBA's broadcasting free agency. Remember that TNT's time as an NBA broadcast partner ends after this season. That means that there will be a free agency of sorts for TNT's talent to ESPN, Amazon and NBC. Ian Eagle has already agreed to go to Amazon. Kevin Harlan will be a huge free agent, though he already does work for CBS for the NFL and the NCAA tournament (as part of the Discovery-CBS agreement). There is a lot of talent that will be leaving TNT, and while NBC and Amazon are starting from scratch, expect ESPN to really look at adding some of it as well. While Mike Breen is a legend, their top broadcast team has been a mess since they broke off Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson (expect them to show up on one of those other networks). Tim Legler has been really good and may be the guy going forward, you still have to do your due diligence.
*Tom Brady stops/slows his broadcasting career. The amount of money owed to him is outrageous, so this is a serious take, but Tom Brady may decide to be more involved in his ownership of the Las Vegas Raiders than into his broadcasting. If that's true, he may back off his FOX broadcasting commitments. That could mean he does less games, does only games close to his home, or just stops doing it altogether. He's not been great at the job, but he has shown moments where he drops key knowledge on the audience ... especially in clutch moments.