Sportz' NFL Predictions

Here we go once again:

AFC EAST
1. Bills*
2. Dolphins*
3. Jets
4. Patriots

AFC SOUTH
1. Texans*
2. Jaguars
3. Colts
4. Titans

AFC NORTH
1. Bengals*
2. Ravens*
3. Browns*
4. Steelers

AFC WEST
1. Chiefs*
2. Chargers
3. Broncos
4. Raiders

NFC EAST
1. Eagles*
2. Cowboys*
3. Commanders
4. Giants

NFC SOUTH
1. Falcons*
2. Buccaneers
3. Saints
4. Panthers

NFC NORTH
1. Lions*
2. Packers*
3. Bears
4. Vikings

NFC WEST
1. 49ers*
2. Rams*
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

SUPER BOWL: Eagles over Ravens

Sorry, it's too boring to pick the Chiefs. 

Ja'Marr Chase vs Bengals

Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals contract situation. Here's my take.

*Chase is "holding-in" because he wants his contract extension. He is entering into Year 4 of his 4-year rookie deal (his base salary will be $1.055M). The Bengals have the right to offer him a 5th-year option ($22M) for 2025, which they have. His extension would be for 2026 and beyond.

*The Bengals do have Chase under contract for two more seasons (2004 and 2025). They don't have to do anything. I'll get into rookie deals in a second but Chase has no flexibility within that deal to do anything. If the Bengals franchise him in 2026, then he has a small bit of flexibility, but not much.

*Understand Chase's current contract. Every draft pick operates under a rookie scale. Meaning no matter who was selected with the 5th pick in the 2021 draft, they were going to get the same contract Chase did. There is no real negotiating. The contract is locked. So Chase had zero ability to maximize his value on the contract he's currently on. Either he signs it or he doesn't have a job playing football.

*Five key things to remember from Chase's point of view.

1. He's outperformed his current contract so getting his extension done now would be his security for the future locked in as well as signing bonus money in his pocket now.

2. As the graphic shows you, the other big time receivers in the 2021 draft class have already got their bags. So to the people whining "he's got two years left", he's seeing that his contemporaries who he was outplayed get their money. He wants his.

3. The "he has two years left" crowd forgets that the Bengals did Joe Burrow's extension last year when Burrow had ... say it with me ... two years left on his rookie deal. Sure, Burrow is a QB but it is well known that both those guys are the true franchise players who are the foundation of the Bengals present and future. At least that's what Chase thought until now.

4. Tee Higgins and Jesse Bates were both franchised by the Bengals. So, in Chase's mind, he can see a path where the organization does nothing but make him play out his last two years, and then franchise him for $40M in 2026. While Bates is a bit of a different situation because he is a safety, Higgins plays the same position as Chase and both players weren't dealt with in good faith. That's because ...

5. Mike Brown owns the Bengals. As well as the Bengals have done the last 20 years, it's been more about drafting talent than retaining it or adding expensive players. Aside from QBs (Palmer, Dalton, Burrow), the organization hasn't been keen on dropping a lot of money on other guys.

*Chase isn't going to get any cheaper. Understand that a new Chase deal doesn't replace his current one. He will be paid $1.055M this season even if he gets his extension done. That's why it is called an EXTENSION. and the 5th year option of $22M for 2025 still would be a thing. So the contract they are battling over is for 2026 and beyond. Having said that, Chase's pice isn't getting cheaper. In fact, in just a week it got more expensive since the Cowboys signed CeeDee Lamb to a new deal. Waiting one year won't make Chase's price go down. He could skip all of camp and practices by sitting all the way up to next Sunday and then continue to work on the deal ... and it will keep getting more expensive.

*Both sides are afraid of ... injury. The Bengals don't want to pay for an extension now because, what if Chase blows out his knee or something and are now on the hook for all that money? Chase wants a deal because, what if he blows out his knee or something and his price plummets?

*To me, it is absolutely ridiculous the Bengals haven't got this done. All the other 2021 receivers got their extensions and Chase has been better than all of them. Not just better, but he is clearly a major part of what the foundation of this franchise. The Eagles (Smith) and Dolphins (Waddle) already have another great receiver signed. Cincinnati does not. You passed up drafting a OT (both candidates for that spot are now All-Pros) to draft Chase and you aren't taking care of him?

Sportz' College Football Predictions

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Florida State. This won't be as good of a team as last season's undefeated squad, but they are good enough to repeat as conference champs. Replacing Jordan Travis at QB will be a challenge, but they think DJ Uiagalelei can come back to the ACC and fare better.

SLEEPER: Miami. They have the talent and transfer QB Cam Ward is the real deal. Will Mario Cristobal get out of the way?

WATCH OUT FOR: SMU. The newcomers have a lot of swagger entering the ACC. 

BIG TEN CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Ohio State. The Buckeyes have everything they need to win a national championship. They are arguably the most talented team in the country. Add in an urgency to, well, beat Michigan and make a title run and Ohio State has a laser focus on their goals.

SLEEPER: Penn State. Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon are the big dogs, but Penn State has been liberated by the new Big Ten. No longer muffled by being in a division with Ohio State and Michigan, the Nittany Lions have a greater shot at making a move toward a playoff spot. 

WATCH OUR FOR: Iowa. The Hawkeyes' offense has been a running joke over the last few years, but with a new offensive coordinator and Michigan transfer Cade McNamara things could be changing in Iowa. 

BIG 12 CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Utah. I just love Utah's physicality and their grit which will serve them well in the Big 12. If Cam Rising can put up another (healthy) fantastic season, I think this conference is set up for the Utes.

SLEEPER: Kansas. The Jayhawks have QB Jalon Daniels and a decent recruiting class coming in to try to ... win the Big 12? 

WATCH OUT FOR: UCF. Gus Malzahn has been successful at a high level and they nabbed Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson to run their offense. If the defense can do anything, this could be a team that makes a run towards a conference title game. 

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Georgia. Duh. 

SLEEPER: Ole Miss. This just feels like Lane Kiffin's time in Oxford. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Missouri. The Tigers quietly went 11-2 last season and beat a weakened Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Their two losses were to LSU and their Heisman Trophy winning QB, and at Georgia. Eliah Drinkwitz has a good thing going in Columbia. 

PAC-12 CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Washington State. I just think they're the better team

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Memphis. The Tigers have the best quarterback, the best receivers and just enough defense to win the AAC. 

SLEEPER: Tulane. I really think the Green Wave did well replacing Willie Fritz with Jon Sumrall. Makhi Hughes rushed for over 1,300 yards a year ago and will be a workhorse again. 

WATCH OUT FOR: South Florida. I really like what Alex Golesh has done in Tampa. He's been recruiting extremely well after finally breaking out of the basement last season. The offense has continuity. 

CONFERENCE USA

CHAMP: Liberty. Frankly they are the best team in this conference and I don't think it's close. They have an elite offense and enough playmakers on defense to stuff the rest of the league. I think they win the CUSA going away. 

SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. Probably the second most talented team in the conference. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Jacksonville State. Rich Rodriguez will usually put together a zany offense that defenses struggle to deal with.

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Miami-OH. The defending champs bring back a large chunk of their offensive starters. 

SLEEPER: Toledo. If the Rockets can find a QB who can utilize those fantastic receivers, they could make a run at a MAC title. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Northern Illinois. Antario Brown. Antario Brown. Antario Brown.

MOUNTAIN WEST

CHAMP: Boise State. Ashton Jeanty could be the best player in the Group of 5. 

SLEEPER: UNLV. Barry Odom did wonders in Vegas last season. I expect it to get even better in 2024. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Colorado State. Jay Norvell has this program on the right track and should reach their first bowl since 2017. This defense has the potential to get much better. 

SUN BELT CONFERENCE

CHAMP: Appalachian State. The Mountaineers got hot late last season and made a run to the Sun Belt title game. I think that momentum continues into this season. 

SLEEPER: Texas State. G.J. Kinne is doing his thing at Texas State. 

WATCH OUT FOR: Arkansas State. Hey man, I like their skill guys (almost all of those starters return) and I'm taking a chance on a Butch Jones clutch moment. 

PLAYOFFS

BYES: Georgia, Ohio State, Utah, Florida State

G5 CHAMP: Memphis

AT LARGE:  Alabama, Texas, Oregon, Notre Dame, Missouri, Penn State, Miami

NATIONAL CHAMPION: Georgia